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temperates

Wine and Climate Change in Australia – Journalist Michael Brissenden Just Makes Stuff-Up

April 26, 2018 By jennifer

MICHAEL Brissenden, considered one of Australia’s most experienced journalists, failed on so many counts with the Four Corners documentary ‘Weather Alert’.

Michael Brissenden is an experienced Australian journalist, this picture is from his biography page at the ABC website.

He suggested that wine grower’s Brown Brothers are relocating at least part of their business to Tasmania because it is too hot in Victoria, which is untrue. He also failed to explain to the public that climate change can be natural, and for as long as humanity has been growing wine grapes harvest dates have changed. He also failed to provide balance by getting some expert perspective of the extent of recent climate change and its likely effect on wine growing.

When the ABC ran its Four Corners program on climate change some weeks back, it had as its theme: that farmers, small businesses, government planners and major corporations have stopped waiting for politicians to decide whether climate change is real. They’re acting now.

One of the more compelling examples provided was that well-known Australian wine producer Brown Brothers was moving part of its operations to Tasmania – to a cooler climate. That is what journalist Brissenden said:

“But that’s not all – the company has now also decided to move part of its operation to cooler country.”

The inference was clear. It has become so hot on mainland Australia, due to catastrophic climate change, that this business was having to act in quite a dramatic way by relocating.

But company representative, Ross Brown, never actually said this. Correspondence* has since established that it’s actually business as usual for Brown Brothers.

“At this stage we don’t intend on selling any vineyards in Victoria. We have always had the philosophy that we grow the right varietals in the most suited climate so we have an incredible team who ensure we are planning the right grapes in the right locations.”

On camera Mr Brown did go on somewhat about how the grape harvests now are getting shorter and earlier because temperatures are rising.

It is well known that temperature is central to all aspects of viticulture (grape growing and harvest), and that records of changing harvest dates have long provided an indication of local climate change. For example, the number of days from 1 September for the wine harvest in Bordeaux, France, has long been an estimate of climate change in Western Europe. As the start date pushed into October from the late 1400s so Europe entered a period known as the Little Ice Age, which followed the Medieval Warm Period. By 1850 – the beginning of the current warm cycle – the average dates of starting vintage were back in September.

There have always been cycles of warming, followed by cooling. For the ABC to really have a story about grape growing and climate change, Brissenden would need to establish the extent to which the current warming cycle is outside the realm of what might be expected from natural climate change. But he didn’t.

Consistent with the ABC’s misguided editorial policy, natural climate change was not even mentioned in ‘Weather Alert’.

I recently published on temperature change in Southeast Australia – the region where Brown Brothers grow wine. It is chapter 5 in the book Evidence-based climate science by scientific publishers Elsevier. In the chapter, entitled Southeast Australian maximum temperature trends, 1887- 2013: an evidence-based reappraisal, I conclude – from a weighted mean of the five highest quality maximum temperature time series for southeast Australia – that the 0.3 degrees Celsius warming since 1887 is well within what might be expected from natural climate change.

Figure 1. These time series lines are derived from data also published in Chapter 5, of the book Evidence-based Climate Science. They show that rural locations, cities and lighthouses have somewhat different temperature trends. Even the most pronounced warming, evident from the cities of Hobart and Melbourne, is within what could be considered natural – though the trends shown here are likely to be artificially exaggerated by the method of measuring temperature since 1996** (electronic probes) and the urban heat island (UHI) effect.

Mr Brissenden might have also mentioned a new book on the fascinating subject of wine and climate – a book written by an agricultural scientist focused on Australian wine. Wine Terroir and Climate Change by John Gladstones (Wakefield Press 2015) concludes that viticulture in Australia is not threatened by global warming, and that much of the computer modelling that underpins the climate change hype is wrong.

If Mr Brissenden was really interested in temperature change and wine growing, and if Four Corners really was about investigative journalism, it would have interviewed Dr Gladstone. But they didn’t.

The documentary was more a propaganda piece – and altogether consistent with ABC editorial policy on the topic of climate change.

—-

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This article was offered to various mainstream Australian media outlets, they all passed on it. But The Spectator Australia has been brave enough to republish, ’tis here: https://www.spectator.com.au/2018/04/no-four-corners-brown-brothers-is-not-moving-to-tasmania/ .

* The correspondence with Brown Brothers was initiated by Bob Fernley-Jones, a Melbourne-based retired mechanical engineer. This blog post details just one of many errors of fact in the Weather Alert documentary identified and documented by Mr Fernley-Jones, which he has included in a series of formal submissions addressed to the ABC’s Audience and Consumer Affairs. Mr Fernley-Jones was recently advised that the ABC have exercised their discretion not to investigate any of his submissions.

** In a previous blog post I have detailed the extent to which recent warming trends are likely to be exaggerated by the change from mercury thermometers to electronic probes – this is also something that could and should have been investigate by Mr Brissenden.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: temperates

Already Hottest January on Record for St Helens, Tasmania

January 22, 2018 By jennifer

LAST week, Andrew Johnson, CEO of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, wrote that the Bureau’s “stewardship of Australia’s temperature record” had been found to be scientifically sound [1]. He also claimed it was in accordance with World Meteorological Organisation guidelines.

In fact, it’s not.

If it was scientifically sound, or in accordance with WMO guidelines, then it might at least be accredited – but it’s not.

“The Bureau has quality system certification in place (ISO 9001) for its aviation forecasting activities, to conform with the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organization. This certification covers the management tools and processes ensuring that all the 80 or so meteorological products the Bureau produces meet client needs. The certification does not extend to measurement quality, including AWS data and messages, nor to the associated derived quantities and data streams.

“To address measurement quality, the WMO recommends that national meteorological agencies have ISO 17025 accreditation of key measurement processes. Accreditation covers the technical procedures and processes that ensure the traceability and integrity of measurements, as well as the technical competence of the staff making the measurements. While the Bureau does not currently hold ISO 17025 accreditation, it has internal processes, technical procedures, and measurement traceability and integrity that are largely in accordance with ISO 17025 requirements.”

The above two paragraphs are a direct quote from page 11 of a document entitled ‘Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Automatic Weather Stations’ published by the Bureau in September 2017.

To be clear, we have an organisation, costing the Australian tax payer about 1 million dollars per day, that operates largely in accordance with its own standards – that are ever changing.

This January, for the very first time ever, we even have weather stations that have already computed the monthly average maximum temperature for January.

Screen shot of the ‘Monthly mean maximum temperature’ page for St Helens Aerodrome at the Bureau’s website

I am writing and posting this note at my blog on Monday 22nd January – a full 9 days before the end of the month, before all the daily values are in for January 2018.

Of course, the already published value for January 2018 indicates that this January 2018 was the hottest ever at St Helens – measuring 25.9 degrees Celsius, when the monthly mean maximum temperature is 22.9. That makes this January a full 3 degrees warmer at St Helens – consistent with man-made global warming theory.

Considering the daily maximum temperature values so far for St Helens… the running average is 24 degrees Celsius.

The daily maximum temperatures so far actually recorded at St Helens this January 2018

This premonition that January’s mean monthly maximum temperature at St Helen is 25.9 degrees Celsius may all be an administrative error or a technical glitch. It may be easily explained and corrected. Then again, climate scientists across the world have form on this sort of thing. Remember the Climategate email sent from Geoff Jenkins to Phil Jones on 22 November 1996 suggesting they just make-up a value for Australia for December 1996 [2].

*****

[1]

Letter from Andrew Johnson, CEO, Bureau of Meteorology to The Australian newspaper published 18th January 2018

[2]

From: gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk
To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, deparker@meadow.meto.govt.uk
Subject: 1996 global temperatures
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 11:23 +0000 (GMT)
Cc: llivingston@meadow.meto.govt.uk, djcarson@meadow.meto.govt.uk, ckfolland@meadow.meto.govt.uk

Phil

Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures,
with early release of information (via Oz), “inventing” the December
monthly value, letters to Nature etc etc?

I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year,
simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.

I have been discussing with David P and suggest the following:

1. By 20 Dec we will have land and sea data up to Nov

2. David (?) computes the December land anomaly based on 500hPa
heights up to 20 Dec.

3. We assume that Dec SST anomaly is the same as Nov

4. We can therefore give a good estimate of 1996 global temps by 20
Dec

5. We feed this selectively to Nick Nuttall (who has had this in the
past and seems now to expect special treatment) so that he can write
an article for the silly season. We could also give this to Neville
Nicholls??

6. We explain that data is provisional and how the data has been
created so early (ie the estimate for Dec) and also

7. We explain why the globe is 0.23k (or whatever the final figure is)
cooler than 95 (NAO reversal, slight La Nina). Also that global annual
avg is only accuirate to a few hundredths of a degree (we said this
last year – can we be more exact, eg PS/MS 0.05K or is this to big??)

8. FROM NOW ON WE ANSWER NO MORE ENQUIRIES ABOUT 1996 GLOBAL TEMPS BUT
EXPLAIN THAT IT WILL BE RELEASED IN JANUARY.

9. We relesae the final estimate on 20 Jan, with a joint UEA/MetO
press release. It may not evoke any interest by then.

10. For questions after the release to Nuttall, (I late Dec, early
Jan) we give the same answer as we gave him.

Are you happy with this, or can you suggest something better (ie
simpler)? I know it sound a bit cloak-and-dagger but its just meant to
save time in the long run.

Im copying this to DEP and CKF also for comments.

Cheers

Geoff

*********
UPDATE: Within hours of this blog post the value for January 2018 was removed by the Bureau for St Helens, and other sites.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: temperates

Faux Record Hot Days, Including at Mildura

September 28, 2017 By jennifer

Alan Jones AO
Radio 2GB, Sydney

Dear Alan,

This spring has begun with the Bureau of Meteorology announcing a new ‘hottest September day on record’ almost every other day.

Last Saturday, for example, we heard that it was the hottest September day in Mildura since 1889. Really? Hotter than 1905 or even 1938 – those were hot years in Mildura.

Extreme heat in inland Australia is usually associated with prolonged drought. But this year there is water in the Murray River; further, modern Mildura is generally considered up to half a degree cooler on average than before the widespread development of irrigation – back in the 1930 and 1940s, for example, drought really was the norm, along with rabbit plagues and dust storms.

Before the advent of irrigation the Murray river would run dry during periods of extended drought. These were exceptionally hot years in the Murray Darling Basin, and include 1915 and 1941. Photograph taken by Jennifer Marohasy, upstream of Mildura some years ago – in about 2007, which was a drought year post the building of the Hume Dam.

I wrote to Minister Josh Frydenberg earlier in the week explaining that these new record hot days are unlikely to withstand scrutiny – for Mildura or anywhere else. My letter included a fair amount of technical detail, and a request for data to enable a direct comparison of temperature measurements from the old-style mercury thermometers with the new style electronic probes in automatic weather stations (AWS) – letter attached.

In the case of Mildura, the current AWS electronic probe was installed on 27th June 2012 – the last official measurement from a mercury thermometer at Mildura was actually on 31st October 1996. Assuming a time constant of 18 seconds for the current probe and given the Bureau’s current method of only taking one-second readings (i.e. taking spot readings – rather than averaging over at least one minute in accordance with World Meteorological guidelines), then the recent record hot day for Mildura is probably only comparable to measurements taken back to September 2012 (last 5 years), perhaps back to 1996 (last 21 years) – certainly not back to 1889 as claimed by the Bureau and reported in The Age.

Minister Frydenberg has been kind enough to acknowledge receipt of my letter, but he doesn’t seem to get how important sorting out the mess that is the Bureau of Meteorology actually is. He has suggested that we meet in a few weeks, when he is not so busy as he is at the moment. Of course, Ministers are always busy – what gets done depends on what they choose to make a priority.

I am writing to you now because you have been so effective in the past at getting some things done. For example, after you interviewed me on Wednesday 26 July about the Thredbo weather station and the artificial limits the Bureau had imposed on the measurement of cold temperatures: the very next day – after 10 long years of the imposition of these limits – they were lifted at Thredbo.

Perhaps, you could invite me back onto your program to discuss this issue of faux hot day records?

This is the first time I have actually requested to come on your program. As those close to me know, I usually don’t sleep the night before such a radio or television interview – because I find it all so frightening. I much prefer to analyse data alone, write technical papers with colleagues, and go canoeing with just nature.

Perhaps just writing this letter to you, and posting it at my blog with be enough?

You could perhaps interview Craig Kelly MP instead – because he is across this issue. I see that Steve Price has been standing-in for you recently: perhaps Steve Price could interview Craig Kelly MP? You/Steve Price would really only need me if someone from the Bureau was prepared to actually come-on your show – then I would be keen to come-on and we could have a proper discussion about the myriad of technical issues that need sorting. In the meantime, there really is a need for a few more people to start discussing these issues in general terms – then the Minister might realise, finally, that there is no need for the average Australian to be paying ever more for their electricity because we may not actually have run-away global warming.

For me the overriding issue is the integrity of the historical temperature dataset, specifically the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). Indeed, I am currently driving my work colleagues mad-with incessant complaints about no-longer being able to trust any of the data from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Previously, I’ve complained about the remodelling by the Bureau of the ACORN-SAT dataset, while working with data from ADAM for my rainfall forecasting. But since discovering the limits on the recording of cold temperatures, and then coincident to this that the Bureau are taking spot-readings rather than averaging – it all seems more desperate than ever.

Yours sincerely
Dr Jennifer Marohasy
Noosa, Qld

Copy:
Craig Kelly MP
Steve Price (via Carla Horton)
John Roskam, IPA

Attachment/letter to Minister Frydenberg: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Marohasy-ABC-4-Mildura.pdf

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: temperates

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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