Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Philosophy

Consensus and Controversy: The Debate on Man-Made Global Warming

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‘IN open societies where both scientists and the general public are equipped with critical skills and the tools of inquiry, not least enabled by the information revolution provided through the Internet, the ethos of science as open, questioning, critical and anti-dogmatic should and can be defended also by the public at large. Efforts to make people bow uncritically to the authority of a dogmatic representation of Science, seems largely to produce ridicule, opposition and inaction, and ultimately undermines the legitimacy and role of both science and politics in open democracies.’

That’s the final paragraph in a new report by Emil A. Røyrvik; a social anthropologist and senior research scientists at SINTEF Technology and Society, Scandinavia’s largest independent research organisation.

The report about “the debate on man-made global warming” including an analysis of “the four myths of climate change”, “the hockey stick”, “climategate” and surveys and petitions of dissenting and contrarian positions.

Dr Røyrvik comes at the issue from an academic perspective and very clearly articulates the strength of the consensus position but also the logic of the contrarians – as he labels us.

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Media Rules Prohibit Dissent

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MODERN history suggests that democracy aligns, and progresses, with the expansion of civil liberties, including access by ordinary citizens to government information. But the new media reform bills tabled in [Australian] federal Parliament last week appear unashamedly about the introduction of an additional layer of bureaucracy unaccountable to the public or the judiciary.

To address the potential problem of a concentration of media control, the government appears determined to concentrate the power of oversight into the hands of a single political appointee – the public interest media advocate (PIMA) – entrusted to be wise enough to act in the public interest.

The PIMA will administer public interest tests in the merger or takeovers of media interests. But unlike other areas of government where there is a public interest test, such as the application of freedom of information laws, the decisions of the PIMA will not be subject to judicial review or appeal through the courts.

It may even be unique in this respect.

Under the constitution, the doctrine of the separation of powers divides the institutions of government into three branches: legislative, executive and judicial.

The legislature makes the laws, the executive put the laws into operation, and the judiciary interprets the laws.

This doctrine is often assumed to be one of the cornerstones of fair government. It enables an entity separate from the executive to review a government decision such as that resulting from the implementation of a public interest test.

But this is possible only if the specific legislation embodying a public interest test has incorporated this safeguard for an appeal through the courts.

This is the case, for example under freedom of information legislation, FOI. In contrast, under the proposed media reform legislation, review of decisions will not be available.

The explanatory memorandum says these processes would be costly and time consuming to review, but we consider such an argument entirely unpersuasive.

The new public interest test will be considered in addition to the existing Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s substantial lessening of competition test, the Australian Communication and Media Authority’s existing media diversity tests and where necessary, the Foreign Investment Review Board’s national interest test.

The idea of applying a public interest test to determine the acceptability of any proposed further concentrations in media control or ownership may be appealing to some who may view this as an extra safeguard.

However, let’s consider how well a public interest test may operate in practice with reference to FOI.

Under FOI, a public interest test is applied, in some circumstances, by government agencies and departments to determine public access rights to documents.

This test requires the government department to state relevant factors, both for and against disclosure.

This should be, in theory, followed by a balancing of these factors, each objectively examined and given an appropriate weighting, leading to an impartial decision on whether the public interest is better served by disclosure or by non-disclosure.

When we applied in 2010 to the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) for disclosure of documents relating to expenditure on certain science programs it administered, our request was initially refused.

Following a protracted appeal process through the Information Commissioner that included scrutiny of the manner of application of the public interest test, the original decision was reversed and the documents eventually were fully disclosed.

Had this review failed, it would have been possible for us to appeal against the decision through the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, the Federal Court and the High Court.

No such appeal will be possible when the PIMA hands down his or her decisions.

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This opinion article by John Abbot and Jennifer Marohasy was first published in the Australian Financial Review on Monday 18th March, 2013. http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/media_rules_prohibit_dissent_YY0bcVGgqdzXvNgEXC8gLO

How Scientific Ideas Become Fashionable (Part 2)

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MICHAEL Crichton wrote the Oscar-winning science fiction adventure Jurassic Park. But screen writing was not his first career, he studied medicine at Harvard, and later in life became very concerned about environmentalism and science, and the difficulty of sorting fact from fiction. In a lecture to the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco in September 2003 he said:

“The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. Perceiving the truth has always been a challenge to mankind, but in the information age (or as I think of it, the disinformation age) it takes on a special urgency and importance.”

For sure every day we are bombarded with information from the internet, radio and television and making sense of it can be difficult.

Scientists are meant to know the difference between fact and fiction and as a first check of the reliability of a source of information they will often ask if it has been “peer-reviewed”. Peer-review means that research findings are conducted and presented to a standard that other scientists working within that field consider acceptable. This is normally achieved through publication in a scientific journal and involves the editor of the journal asking for comment on the validity, significance and originality of the work from other scientists before publication. In short, the system of peer-review means scientific research is subject to independent scrutiny but it doesn’t guarantee the truth of the research finding.

In theory rebuttals play an equal or more important role than peer review in guaranteeing the integrity of science. By rebuttals I mean articles, also in peer-reviewed journals, that show by means of contrary evidence and argument, that an earlier claim was false. By pointing out flaws in scientific papers that have passed peer-review, rebuttals, at least theoretically, enable scientific research programs to self-correct. But in reality most rebuttals are totally ignored and so fashionable ideas often persist even when they have been disproven.

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How Scientific Ideas Become Fashionable (Part 1)

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THERE is no doubt that many people are susceptible to the repetition of a single message. No matter how stupid the message, if enough people say it often enough, a large percentage of those who hear it will begin to believe it. That’s the basis of advertising and also propaganda: it’s how you make ideas fashionable, even scientific ideas. But just because an idea is fashionable doesn’t make it right and just because an idea is right, well it doesn’t mean it represents the truth.

Fashion is in fact the lowest form of ideology and I have little regard for fashionable ideas – even fashionable scientific ideas. I also have little regard for what many claim to be good and wholesome ideas. My interest is in the facts, the evidence – the truth particularly as it pertains to the natural world.

There is intrinsic good in having a deep understanding, based on truths, of aspects of the natural world. For example, it is through understanding electricity – what it is and how it can be generated – that it many of our basic physical needs are now met at the flick of a switch: the lights come on, the house warms up, the kettle boils water. But not everyone studies science to discover useful things, for some it is the chase after facts and the thrill that comes with their discovery, for others an interest in an aspect of the puzzle that is the natural world in the hope of finding order in the universe.

But to be successful at science there is a need for a particular type of discipline – a discipline that is not necessary in many other intellectual pursuits. There is a need to be honest to reality and to always test theory against reality. In this respect science is different from the modern arts.

But science has not always been so different from art. For example, Leonardo da Vinci studied anatomy to become a better artist. That was during a period in Europe when the artist’s goal was assumed to be the representation of reality – of nature. But then a time came when European artists renounced representation as their goal. Art now is about emotion, culture and fashion – few modern day artists attempt to depict the world as it really is. This may or may not be a good thing for art but it clearly makes art something very different from science.

Science is meant to be about reality – it is meant to be about discovery and understanding and truth. Science is not meant to be about emotion or culture or even fashion. But how can you tell whether a conversation about a scientific issue is based on truth or fashion?

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Australian Universities: A Portrait of Decline

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Dear Friend,

Despite that salutation, I can’t be found on Facebook nor can you follow me on Twitter, BUT you CAN read my book:

Australian Universities: A Portrait of Decline

which lays bare the corruption of our institutions of higher learning as a result of 20 years of rampant managerialism, baseless education theory and overt government interference.

As part of the education sector, you owe it to yourself and your students to revive the system while there are still signs of life.

Please use the link below to download your FREE digital copy. Feel free to pass this email on to anyone you know who might also be interested.

http://www.australianuniversities.id.au/

Best of Reading.

Sincerely,
Donald Meyers

The Age of Apocalypse?

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“When questioned, Jesus of Nazareth had this to say on the subject of the end of the world: ‘But of that day and that hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels which are in heaven, neither the Son, but the Father.’ (Mark 13:32) We don’t seem to have improved on that forecast since and not all the research associates and interns toiling at Mead GHQ crunching all the computers that money can buy have been able to come up with anything more precise.

“But whether or not we get the Big Bang or the Big Whimper, the new decade is going to be haunted by the specter of an approaching apocalypse; a lot of people will think the world is ending, or could end, and the mixture of hope, fear and apocalyptic energy unleashed by that perception will be affecting both national and international politics on an increasing scale as time goes by.” So, predicted Walter Russell Mead on his blog in January 2010, at the beginning of the new decade.

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2010/01/19/2010s-7-end-of-the-world/

But I’m not sure. The global warming scare appears to have almost run its course. What comes next or what just for this new year, 2012?