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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Philosophy

Climate Consensus & The End of Science: Terence Corcoran versus Thomas Kuhn

June 28, 2006 By jennifer

I grew up in a family where we would sometimes take a vote, and then Dad would decide. Dad had some respect for the idea of a ‘majority’ or a ‘consensus’, but I can’t remember ever worrying too much about trying to convince my siblings to vote with me.

As a scientist working for government, and later in a management position with the Queensland sugar industry, my colleagues used to try and impress upon me the importance of “having the numbers” and what the “consensus” position was.

But I’ve always been less interested in who has the numbers at any particular point in time, and more interested in the argument. I’ve always believed that a solid logical argument should eventually win the day.

The other day I was sent a link to a piece by Terence Corcoran from the Financial Post in Canada titled ‘Climate Consensus and the End of Science’. It began with comment that:

“It is now firmly established, repeated ad nauseam in the media and elsewhere, that the debate over global warming has been settled by scientific consensus. The subject is closed. It seems unnecessary to labour the point, but here are a couple of typical statements: “The scientific consensus is clear: human-caused climate change is happening” (David Suzuki Foundation); “There is overwhelming scientific consensus” that greenhouse gases emitted by man cause global temperatures to rise (Mother Jones).

Back when modern science was born, the battle between consensus and new science worked the other way around. More often than not, the consensus of the time — dictated by religion, prejudice, mysticism and wild speculation, false premises — was wrong. The role of science, from Galileo to Newton and through the centuries, has been to debunk the consensus and move us forward. But now science has been stripped of its basis in experiment, knowledge, reason and the scientific method and made subject to the consensus created by politics and bureaucrats.”

The piece is interesting, it does correctly emphasis the extent to which the word ‘consensus’ is repeated invoked with the word ‘science’ and ‘climate change’ to justify support for the concept of anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

Terence Corcoran’s piece might have been improved with some reference to two well know philosophers of science, Karl Popper and Thomas Kuhn.

Popper had no time for consensus, for him science was advanced through ‘falsification’:

“Logically, no number of positive outcomes at the level of experimental testing can confirm a scientific theory, but a single genuine counter-instance is logically decisive: it shows the theory, from which the implication is derived, to be false. Popper’s account of the logical asymmetry between verification and falsification lies at the heart of his philosophy of science. It also inspired him to take falsifiability as his criterion of demarcation between what is and is not genuinely scientific: a theory should be considered scientific if and only if it is falsifiable.”

[from Wikipedia, click here].

Yet so many ‘global warming believer’ complain when ‘skeptics’ present bits of information that don’t necessarily accord with the rhetoric. They might accuse the skeptic of ‘cherry picking’. But if you believe in Popper and falsification, what’s wrong with cherry picking to disprove the general applicability of a theory?

In contrast, Thomas Kuhn would perhaps see the current preoccupation with having a scientific consensus as normal:

“Thomas Kuhn … argued instead that experimental data always provide some data which cannot fit completely into a theory, and that falsification alone did not result in scientific change or an undermining of scientific consensus. He proposed that scientific consensus worked in the form of “paradigms”, which were interconnected theories and underlying assumptions about the nature of the theory itself which connected various researchers in a given field. Kuhn argued that only after the accumulation of many “significant” anomalies would scientific consensus enter a period of “crisis”. At this point, new theories would be sought out, and eventually one paradigm would triumph over the old one — a cycle of paradigm shifts rather than a linear progression towards truth. Kuhn’s model also emphasized more clearly the social and personal aspects of theory change, demonstrating through historical examples that scientific consensus was never truly a matter of pure logic or pure facts.”

[from Wikipedia, click here]

So according to Kuhn the current preoccupation with a ‘scientific consensus’ on climate change is not necessarily novel and contrary to Terence Corcoran’s ascertains it doesn’t necessarily mean “the end of science”.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, Philosophy

Being a ‘Chooser’, Not a ‘Changer’ (More on Peer Review)

June 27, 2006 By jennifer

There have been several instances where commentators at this blog have criticised others for publishing their information on websites rather in peer reviewed journals. The inference being that if its not in a peer reviewed journal, the idea has little merit.

Interestingly, there’s a new medical journal to be published by Elsevier called ‘Medical Hypotheses’ and it plans to take a deliberately different approach to peer review:

“Most contemporary practice tends to discriminate against radical ideas that conflict with current theory and practice. Medical Hypotheses will publish radical ideas, so long as they are coherent and clearly expressed. Furthermore, traditional peer review can oblige authors to distort their true views to satisfy referees, and so diminish authorial responsibility and accountability. In Medical Hypotheses, the authors’ responsibility for the integrity, precision and accuracy of their work is paramount. The editor sees his role as a ‘chooser’, not a ‘changer’: choosing to publish what are judged to be the best papers from those submitted.

Papers in Medical Hypotheses take a standard scientific form in terms of style, structure and referencing. The journal therefore constitutes a bridge between cutting-edge theory and the mainstream of medical and scientific communication, which ideas must eventually enter if they are to be critiqued and tested against observations.”

What a great idea! And doesn’t the new journal neatly articulate the problems with peer review for those working outside of established paradigms.

The quote was sent to me with a link to a blog piece by Andrew Leigh in which he suggests the concept has application to economics.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

Why are The Opinionators also ‘Environmentalists’?

June 6, 2006 By jennifer

Sydney-based think tank the Centre for Independent Studies puts out a quarterly magazine called Policy. The latest issue features a piece titled ‘The Rise of the Opinionators’ by Peter Saunders which suggests that:

“In the last 50 years, people’s socio-economic characteristics have become much less significant indicators of how they will vote: many working class voters support parties of the right, and large swathes of the middle class vote Labor.

Labor’s strongest support on a two-party preferred basis is not now among manual workers. It is among education, arts and social professionals, people Peter Saunders dubs the ‘opinionators’ for their role in developing, processing, interpreting and transmitting ideas, values and opininons.

The opinionators hold many views at significant variance from the general population. Compared to other voters, for example, the opinonators are less likely to support reducing tax and more likely to favour higher government spending, and they are much more in favour of asylum seekers and much less supportive of defence spending.”

Saunders also suggests that Opinionators stand out from other voters in their strong support for the Greens and their support for, what he calls, “high-visibility election issues like logging, or on touchstone issues like GM crops”.

The article concludes with the comment, “In terms of their wider ideological importance, however, the opinionators occupy many of the key positions within our core educational and cultural institutions. Their political significance should not be measured in votes.”

What has always struck me most about this group is that, yes, they have very definite and strongly held opinions on a range of environmental issues. I have also observed that they are mostly incredibly ignorant on the very same issues for which they hold such definate views. As a consequence I see them as a real threat to the environment. I wrote sometime ago for Policy magazine on this on this issue, the piece was titled Environmental Fundamentalism.

I have also been rather taken-aback when more than once ‘an opinionator’ has declined to discuss an environmental issue with me on the basis that, in their opinion, I knew too much about the particular subject! Most ordinary folk like talking to people who know something about a subject?

What is it about environmental issue and this group, a group that has so much political and cultural clout?

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

Against Wearing & Eating Animal Products

May 12, 2006 By jennifer

The Weekly Times, a rural Victorian newspaper, had a feature this week on animal rights. It reports on a group called Voiceless that plans to work with school children against the eating and wearing of animal products.

Interestingly Voiceless already have a program with Griffith University for the development of a school curriculum.

While the Weekly Times article suggests Voiceless are also against the harvesting of kangaroos, their website focuses on intensive farming of animals, particularly pigs.

Not so long ago I spoke with farmers at Cowra about what groups like Voiceless and PETA represent. Here’s an extract:

“There has been much written about how Australia’s national character emerged from a bush ethos: the idea that a specifically Australian outlook emerged first amongst workers in the Australian pastoral industry. The recent, big environmental and animal liberation campaigns, however, challenge key assumptions from this history. They portray Australian agriculture as harmful to the environment, and the animal liberationists suggest that our farmers are inhumane.

Banjo Paterson, perhaps more than any other writer, created and defined our cultural heritage. His story about the shearer and his jumbuck in outback Queensland remains our most popular national song.

Renditions of ‘Waltzing Matilda’ dominate when Australians gather at major international sporting events, including the Olympic Games and Rugby Union matches.

But People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) are campaigning against the wool industry. They are against live export and they are against mulesing. As part of the campaign against wool products focused on US consumers, PETA campaigners have also suggested that the Australian climate is too hot for sheep.

‘The Man from Snowy River’, also by Paterson, is about bushmen and their horses in the High Country. The man from Snowy River chased the brumbies ‘down the mountain like a torrent down its bed’ through open country and mountain scrub before ‘turning their heads for home’ with his pony covered in ‘blood from hip to shoulder from the spur’.

Now the NSW and Victorian Governments are intent on banning grazing and brumbies from the High Country on the basis that they have an adverse impact on the natural heritage of the Alpine region.

The Victorian mountain cattlemen sought an emergency cultural and historic heritage listing with the Federal Environment Minister to counter the Victorian Government’s proposed ban on grazing. But lost.

No-one has a monopoly on the future. Perhaps it is time that Australians moved beyond ‘Waltzing Matilda’ and ‘The Man from Snowy River’? The PETA Website explains that there are alternatives to wool, including:
“polyester fleece, synthetic shearling, and other cruelty-free fibres. Tencel — breathable, durable, and biodegradable — is one of the newest cruelty free wool substitutes…. Choosing to buy these non-wool products not only helps the animals, but can also reduce or eliminate many of the consumer problems and inconveniences that go along with wearing or using wool. “

But what about a replacement for lamb chops? While the animal liberationists are against the farming of exotic animals, like sheep, they are also intent on preventing the development of any industry based on the farming of Australian native animals, including kangaroos. PETA is even against the drinking of milk.”

Perhaps we will one day all eat tofu and wear polyester fleece jumpers?

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

Environmentalism & Politics: A Question

May 12, 2006 By jennifer

I am a student studying Australian Politics as a course at University, and I have an environmental question to give a presentation on:

“How does environmentalism challenge how we think about Australian Politics?”

I’m at a bit of a loss, can anyone help me on this?

Shannon Tonkin

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

On Absurd Opinions

May 8, 2006 By jennifer

There is no opinion, however absurd, which men [and women] will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted.

Arthur Schopenauer (1788-1860)

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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