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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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People

Robyn Williams Might Apologize to Don Aitkin and Nigel Lawson

April 27, 2008 By jennifer

A fellow called Robyn Williams has a monopoly on the reporting of science on Australia’s publicly funded national radio, the ABC. He runs several programs including Ockam’s Razor broadcast on Sunday morning.

He is usually quick to promote the latest scare and perhaps not surprisingly has become a great supporter of alarmist global warming claims. It is not difficult to find credible scientists to interview who support the consensus on global warming. Unfortunately, however, anybody holding a skeptical view risks ridicule when they speak out, including from Robyn Williams.

Here is a disgraceful introduction from Robyn Williams to the former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Canberra, Professor Don Aitkin. No doubt if Professor Aitkin were not a skeptic he would have been given a suitably adoring, or at least a gracious, introduction.

Also, in the following introduction Mr Williams suggested Nigel Lawson is a trained economist, he is not. He is a journalist by training. But was a very able Chancellor of the Exchequer in Margaret Thatcher’s government.

Here goes:

Robyn Williams: It is one of the disappointments of my life as a broadcaster that I’ve never managed to interview Nigella Lawson. How would she fit into a science program you may wonder, but that’s mere detail.

I have, on the other hand, had her father Nigel Lawson on the Science Show, talking about innovation or some such, with his usual flair and penetrating intelligence. Not a science-trained man, but economics is near enough, isn’t it, and he was Thatcher’s Chancellor of the Exchequer (or Treasurer).

Now Lord Lawson has brought out a book on climate called An Appeal to Reason. Here’s the first paragraph of a review in this week’s Spectator magazine:

‘When there is so much data suggesting the world’s climate is heating up’, goes the review, ‘some may find it presumptuous of Nigel Lawson, who is not a scientist and has undertaken no original research, to hope to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy. Would we take seriously an appraisal of his time as Chancellor of the Exchequer written by someone whose only expertise was in oceanography?’

Well the same could apply to Professor Don Aitkin, former Vice-Chancellor of the University of Canberra, a political scientist and like Lawson, a journalist. Professor Aitkin gave a lecture on climate to the Planning Institute of Australia, A Cool Look at Global Warming. That was a couple of weeks ago, and I thought you might like to hear some of his thoughts, recast for Ockham’s Razor. Though 9 out of 10 Australians are said to be alarmed at climate change, 10% think differently, and Professor Aitkin is one of them.”

Now read/listen to ‘A challenge to global warming orthodoxies – part one’ by Don Aitkins here:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/ockhamsrazor/stories/2008/2226464.htm

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: People

Whaling: Rune has Resigned from the High North Alliance.

April 3, 2008 By Paul

Our friend Rune Frövik, Secretary of the High North Alliance, has resigned according to a Norwegian newspaper, Fiskeribladet.

The charismatic Rune has had many fights with Greenpeace and participated in CITES and IWC meetings. Rune has as well been kind enough to participated here on Jen’s blog. We remember him in the hot and interesting discussion on sustainable Norwegian whaling with Dr. Peter Corkeron:

https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001142.html#comments

The High North Alliance (HNA) was established in 1991 as an organisation for whalers and sealers in the North Atlantic. HNA had its “golden period” during the years when Norway wanted full scale whaling activity and possibilities to export whale meat. It’s calmer now in the office that is situated in the Lofoten Islands.

“There are still many challenges”, states the new to be Secretary, Laila Jusnes.

The paper doesn’t state the reason for Rune’s resignment , but I heard he owns a little whale meat processing factory in northern Norway.

I wish Rune good luck for the future (but not killing whales!).

Ann Novek,
Sweden

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: People, Whales

Climate Change Conference, New York – Day 3, In Review

March 6, 2008 By jennifer

I’ve already reported on the standing ovation given to Vaclav Klaus following his speech at breakfast on day 3 of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

New York 004_copy.jpg
President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus addressing delegates at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

There were two keynote speakers at each meal.

William Gray spoke after President Klaus and to the title ‘Oceans, Not Carbon Dioxide are Driving Climate’ and in particular about the circulation of water from the North Pole by way of the “Great Ocean Conveyor Belt” – Thermohaline Circulation (THC) – and the importance of the highly saline Atlantic Ocean.

Dr Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years including studies of broad-scale cumulus interactions, processes associated with tropical cyclone structure, development and movement. And I will admit to not understanding all of his presentation, so I am going to say no more than that while acknowledging that carbon dioxide, the sun, land use change and water vapour all impact climate, Dr Gray went on to explain that it is the oceans that really drive climate and that the associated changes in energy fields and atmospheric moisture are too complex and chaotic to integrate into climate models.

New York 016_william gray.jpg
A key slide from Dr Gray’s presentation.

After breakfast I headed to what is known at the Marriott Marquis as the Skylobby on the 16th floor to hear Marc Morano, Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox. The session on science and politics was introduced with reference to the so called scientific consensus and the suggestion was made that it is really a political consensus, not a scientific consensus.

Michael Fox is a nuclear specialist and he drew similarities in his speech between the current campaign against fossil fuels and the long standing campaign against nuclear energy. He suggested both reflected ‘illiteracy’ in the general public when it comes to science, maths and energy and spoke at length about environmental activists being against nuclear and hydro – yet these are the only real alternative to fossil fuels. His comments about activists being well organised and using regulation, litigation and/or taxation to attack the nuclear industry were interesting.

He finished with a quote from a Washington Congressman that “in my district it is political suicide to be rational on nuclear issues.”

I am familiar with the work of second speaker Marlo Lewis and in particular his comprehensive critique of Al Gore’s book ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ which you can find here: http://www.cei.org/pages/ait_response-book.cfm . But I had trouble following much of his speech at the conference because it was about the complexity and history of US environmental legislation the implications of which he was hopefully exaggerating because is it really possible that litigation could close down the US economy. Dr Marlo spoke about ‘ethanolism’ as an addiction which has swept over Washington and went into great detail about National Ambient Air Quality Standards and how government legislators could set the standard for carbon dioxide lower than current levels!

Marc Morano followed Marlo Lewis and I have already posted on his presentation here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002818.html . I will just add that Mr Morano also said polar bear numbers are at historical highs yet it is likely they will be listed as endangered.

I only caught part of the last session in the Skylobby which included some discussion on the Christian lobby and their links with the AGW lobby. The size of this constituency in the US runs into the tens of millions.

Instead of hearing more speakers I ended up joining UK resident and social anthropologist Benny Peiser and famous economist David Henderson for a pot of tea and some discussion on Level 8. Of course the pot was just hot water but we put the teabags into the pot rather than our cups – as the Americans get this so wrong.

Lunch was delicious; a delicate green rocket salad followed by a large piece of salmon on a wholesome risotto. The speakers were also great. Dr Roy Spencer is a principle research scientists for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the US Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and his presentation was entitled ‘Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity’. While at the morning session William Gray suggested oceans drive climate, Dr Spencer’s key point was that “if there is one organising principle it is precipitation systems” (rainfall). He explained his interest in temperature anomalies since the launch of the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002 and the detailed data this satellite collects including on intraseasonal oscillations in troposhere temperatures. I was fascinated to hear how the satellite data has helped understanding of how clouds change as they evolve and the strong negative cloud feedback during troposphere warming. This is not how the climate models behave – they suggest a strong positive feedback. Dr Spencer also explained how when his findings were published last August there was no media interest to his astonishment given then importance of the findings.

In an attempt to move with the opinion within his discipline that if you can’t “put it in numbers in a climate model all you are doing is hand waving”, Dr Spencer developed his own climate model, what he described as the ‘world’s smallest climate model’.

New York 051_World's Smallest mode.jpg
Slide from Roy Spencer’s presentation.

What the model showed was that the real climate system (as opposed to the virtual modelled system) is much less sensitive than most modellers assume.

Dr Spencer’s talk was perhaps the most important at the conference and his conclusions including:
1. Recent research supports reduced climate sensitivity including that tropical intra-seasonal osciallations show strong negative feedback and observational estimates of feedback are likely bias due to neglect of natural variability, and
2. The accommodation of these results by climate modellers in their cloud parameterization could greatly reduce climate model projections of future warming.

The last speaker for the conference was ABC News correspondent John Stossel. He gave an interesting talk on ‘scares’ and how and why the media reports them.

In his closing remarks for the conference Heartland Institute President and CEO Joseph Blast drew parallels between our conference and the small group of economists who gathered at Mont Pelerin, near Montreux, Switzerland, to discuss the state and the possible fate of classic liberalism in 1947. Mr Blast suggested that our gathering in New York will hopefully mark the beginnings of an intellectual movement that will help turn-around the politics of climate change.

I walked and napped in the afternoon before meeting some conference delegates – Bob Ferguson and Carol Ferguson, Bob Carter and Ann Carter, blogger Joe De’Aleo and Astrophysicist Willie Soon – for a light dinner and a glass of wine (or two) in the hotel.

New York 055_Carter,Soon, De'Aleo.jpg
Conference delegates Bob Carter, Joe De Áleo and Willie Soon not in a spaceship, but rather in a lounge at the New York Marriott Marquis.

I would like to again thank conference organisers and sponsors The Heartland Institute and also the people of New York who have helped make my short say here truly memorable.

—————-
You can read my perspective on Day 1 of the conference here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and Day 2 here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html

Some media from the conference is here:

Bob Carter on the Global Warming Conference
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/6724/

Inconvenient Thermometers
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6727/?ck=1

Glenn talks with Lord Monckton
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6783/?ck=1

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, People, Reports, Conferences

Meeting Marc Morano

March 5, 2008 By jennifer

A highlight of The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change for me was meeting Marc Morano.

He is a former journalist with CNS, reporter and producer for the Rush Limbaugh Television Show and also American Investigator. Now communications director for the Republicans on the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works in Washinton amongst his many activities and responsibilities he also finds time to run an award winning blog.

Mr Morano gave two papers at the conference. I sat in on Wednesday morning’s session on politics and science which also included presentations from Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox.

New York 022_blog_Marc chatting .jpg
Marc Morano chatting with a delegate before the session.

Mr Morano began with an overview of the history of the politics of climate change including a quote from Newsweek magazine of April 28, 1975, ““The longer the planners delay the more difficult they will find it to deal with climate change once the results become grim reality.”

New York 034_Marc 4 points.jpg
Marc Morano speaking at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

He went on to talk about carbon based economies as the greatest liberators of mankind in the history of the planet facilitating the “20th Century Miracle” including the lowering of infant mortality and increasingly life expectancy.

Following the presentations Mr Morano answered a question about the value of focus groups in understanding public opinion on global warming and helping to formulate appropriate public responses. He said that what was most needed from politicians was simply “political courage” including the courage to tell it as it is.

After the session I was privileged to meet not only Marc but also his mother and nephew who were also at the conference.

New York 041_Marc and his Mum.jpg
Marc Morano with his mother at The Marriott Marquis, New York.

—————————
You can read my perspective on day 1 of the conference here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html , day 2 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html and breakfast with Hon Vaclav Klaus on day 3 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002816.html.

Thanks again to conference sponsor’s The Heartland Institute

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: People, Reports, Conferences

Breakfast with Czech President Vaclav Klaus

March 5, 2008 By jennifer

The 500-strong contingent of skeptics currently in New York for The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change were up early for a second day. Breakfast was again at 7am and the first speaker was given a standing ovation – a man who had travelled all the way from Prague, the President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus.

New York 005_blog Vaclav Klaus.jpg
Vaclav Klaus is a well know global warming skeptic and was re-elected President just two weeks ago.

In his speech President Klaus talked about the “robust relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth” and went on to suggest there are three types of countries in Europe based on their emissions profile and level of economic growth. He described the less developed countries of the European Union (EU), including Greece, has trying to “catch-up” since the signing of Kyoto and in the process increasing their level of carbon emissions by 53 percent. The post communist countries were described as seeing their heavy industry disappear and experiencing a decline in GDP and a drop in emissions of 33 percent Then there are countries like France and Germany which have seen their emissions increase on average by 4 percent.

The President said that “the dream” to reduce emissions in the EU by 70 percent in the next 30 years could only be achieved if there was a dramatic de-industrialization of Europe (likely associated with a dramatic drop in GDP), a dramatic drop in population or a technological revolution.

President Klaus outlined previous attempts in Europe, for example the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, to impose radical economic change and the “innocence of climate alarmists” to currently mastermind society including their belief in their own omnipotence.

The President concluded with comment that “uncompromising lessons about the collapse of communism” need to be re-learnt:

“We have to restart the discussion about the very nature of government and about the relationship between the individual and society. Now it concerns the whole of mankind, not just the citizens of one particular country. To discuss this means to look at the canonically structured theoretical discussions about socialism (or communism) and to learn the uncompromising lessons from the inevitable collapse of communism 18 years ago. It is not about climatology. It is about freedom. This should be the main message from our conference.”

New York 010_copy_Vaclav Klaus.jpg
Standing ovation, including from London-based Kendra Okonski and former advisor to Russian President Putin Andrei Illarionov . New York based Statistician William M Briggs is the tall guy in the background to the immediate left of Dr Illarionov.

Thanks again to conference sponsor’s The Heartland Institute .

More on day 3 soon.

—————-
You can read a perspective on day 3 of the conference from William M Briggs here: http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/03/04/heartland-conference-day-3-and-wrap-up/.

You can read my perspective on day 1 of the conference here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and day 2 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html .

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, Economics, People, Reports, Conferences

Climate Change Conference, New York – Day 2, In Review

March 4, 2008 By jennifer

The 500-strong contingent of skeptics currently in New York for The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change were up early to hear Robert Balling and Ross McKitrick speak at breakfast.

A key message from the address by Professor Balling was that there are a lot of non-greenhouse signals that can impact climate including sulphates, dust, ozone, biomass burning and land use change. Given even the IPCC agrees that we have a poor understanding of the impact of these different variables on climate – how can the debate be over? The Professor concluded with the Thomas Huxley quote, “Skepticism is the highest of duties, blind faith the one unpardonable sin”.

Ross McKitrick gave a very different type of address getting into the detail of the recent temperature record – how it is measured and how there is a large population effect on the US temperature data which accounts for about half the observed warming since 1980. Dr McKitrick went into the detail of the statistic analysis and his arguments with the IPCC and scientists at Realclimate.

New York 013_Ross_blog.jpg
Ross McKitrick speaking to the title ‘Quantifying the Influence of Anthropogenic Surface Processes on Gridded Global Climate Data’, 7am Breakfast Session

New York 014_bob_blog.jpg
Bob Carter amongst the crowd who woke early to hear Dr McKitrick

Following the breakfast we had a choice of 6 different tracks on either paleoclimatology, climatology, impacts, economics, politics or movies. I spent most of the day in the ‘impacts’ track and thoroughly enjoyed myself.

I even got to meet polar bear expert Mitch Taylor. He followed a presentation by entomologist Paul Reiter which emphasised malaria is not historically a tropical disease with outbreaks in the England, Sweden and Finland before the advent of DDT. Dr Reiter also made the point that Al Gore was completely wrong in his documentary to suggest that Nairobi did not have a history of malaria outbreaks – in fact here were five major epidemics to the 1950s.

Of course the best photographs for the day were from Mitch Taylor who told us about his field work in the Arctic counting polar bears – or more correctly field sampling using mark-recapture techniques. Dr Taylor said that these demographic studies indicated at least two subpopulations of polar bears in the Artic had a constant population size, that two were increasing in number and that two were in decline – one of these from over hunting and the Churchill subpopulation from climate change in particular a reduction in the amount of sea ice. Accepting the climate models Dr Taylor indicated that bear numbers could decline across the Artic from present numbers of about 24,500 to around 17,000 over the next 100 years.

New York 034_blog_Mitch2.jpg
Jennifer Marohasy and Mitch Taylor, Marriott Hotel, March 3, 2008 International Climate Change Conference

My colleague Alan Moran told me that the best speakers of the day were Tim Ball and Fred Singer at lunch, but still slightly jet lagged and still recovering from a breakfast of scrambled egg, hash-browns, spinach, bacon, fried tomato and a bit more I decided to sleep through lunch. I also missed Dr Moran’s presentation as it clashed with Dr Taylor’s.

New York 028_blog_avery.jpg
Denis Avery giving a television interview.

I did wake up in time to hear William Briggs who gave a fascinating insight into the worldwide hurricane data concluding there is no discernable increase in either number or intensity. This conclusions was supported by Stan Goldenberg from NOAA who emphasised the importance of understanding how hurricane data has been collected historically in his presentation which included photographs taken inside the eye of hurricanes from flights within NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters – WP-3D Turbo Prop Aircraft.

New York 052_Leon_blog.jpg
Leon Ashby, South Australian landholder and director of the Australian Environment Foundation, films conference proceedings.

I sat in on one of the economics sessions and the talk by Michael Economides, University of Houston, focused on our past, present and likely future dependence on oil and gas explaining that these hydrocarbons account for 87 percent of the world’s energy needs and suggesting that there was no alternative to hydrocarbon energy in the immediate future with wind and solar only likely to ever meet half of 1 percent of our energy needs over the next century. This presentation, in which the professor explained he considered AGW “unadulterated nonsense” contrasted sharply with the presentation from Benny Peiser. Dr Peiser spoke at the last session for the day in the impacts track asking the question “What if Al Gore is right?” He put it to the audience that the current response from the world’s skeptics was not reassuring to the public or politicians and that given our “cultural baggage” people had reason to fear climate change. Dr Peiser, like the other speaker in this session, Dr Stan Goldberg from NOAA, suggested regardless of the cause of climate change we should prepare for it.

Dr Peiser acknowledged government across the world had no real solution to rising emission levels but that solutions would come through geoengineering. In contrast to Professor Economides, Dr Peiser suggested the world might one day be run on solar energy and that within a 100 or so years we would know how to make it rain.

With the conference over for the day, my colleague Alan Moran and I decided on a brisk walk through Central Park before a wine and meal at Morrell’s in Rockefellar Plaza.

New York 061_blog_racoon.jpg
A racoon in Central Park. March 3, 2008

Another great day thanks to conference organisers The Heartland Institute.

More tomorrow.

—————-
And you can read about yesterday here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, People, Reports, Conferences

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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To get in touch with Jennifer call 0418873222 or international call +61418873222.

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