Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Floods

Tony Windsor Willfully Ignores the Evidence

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THE ability to perceive anomaly – something that deviates from what is considered standard – is important for the progress of science and also good public policy.

Until the recent widespread flooding in Australia, water planning in the Murray Darling Basin was based on the assumption that the region would experience continuing drought because of climate change.  The underlying science was considered the best available because it was endorsed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology and it confidently predicted a major decline in rainfall for decades.

This assumption has since proven wrong.  Indeed during 2010 rainfall was 163 percent of the long term average. 

The latest flooding was predicted by Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle.   Professor Franks, in a series of papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2003, has confirmed and provided explanation, for what many farmers have known intuitively that the Murray Darling Basin generally exists in one of two states – flood or drought.

While recent flooding, and the rainfall totals for the Murray Darling for 2010, dramatically demonstrate the anomaly between government water policy and reality, Tony Windsor, the independent for New England who holds the balance of power in the federal parliament, remains in denial.  Indeed despite the flooding he claims there is no need to rethink reform within the Murray Darling Basin.

In an article published by The Australian yesterday Mr Windsor went as far as to suggest that the Murray River is still dying.

So the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Australian Greens and now even the Independent member for the rural seat of New England are willfully ignoring evidence that contradicts their beliefs.  This is a bad omen for public policy in Australia.

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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/windsor-rejects-rethink-on-basin-plan/story-fn59niix-1225989031335

Queensland Premier establishes Commission of Inquiry into flood disaster

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Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has launched a statewide independent Commission of Inquiry to forensically examine Queensland’s unprecedented flood disaster.

Ms Bligh said the Commission would be headed by widely respected Queensland Justice Cate Holmes with Deputy Commissioners Jim O’Sullivan, a former Queensland Police Commissioner and Phil Cummins, an international expert on dams.

She said the Commission of Inquiry, approved by Cabinet today and appointed by the Queensland Governor after a special Executive Council meeting, would deliver an interim report in August 2011, and its final report by January 2012.

The Premier said the Inquiry would have the powers of a Royal Commission, would take public submissions from across Queensland and would make recommendations in its interim report for future wet seasons.

“The last three weeks have been truly shocking for all Queenslanders and now is the time to forensically examine the devastating chain of events and the aftermath,” Ms Bligh said.

The Commission will be asked to inquire into and report on:

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Time to Reject AGW – And Bob Brown

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EVER the opportunist, Bob Brown, Leader of the Australian Greens, yesterday blamed the Brisbane floods on the coal industry for causing global warming. 

But there is no correlation between atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and rainfall or flooding, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, anywhere in Australia. 

There is, however, a correlation between patterns in the major atmospheric-oceanic oscillations and flood events. 

Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle, has shown that the usefulness of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a predictor of flooding depends on whether or not a more complex phenomenon also measured by sea surface temperatures known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in a positive or negative phase. 

In a series of peer-reviewed papers published in the best international journals since 2003, Professor Franks has shown that when the IPO is negative, as it was from 1946 to 1977, then there is a much greater chance that there will be flooding rains if a La Nina forms. 

The IPO started to go negative in 1999, but an El Nino formed in 2001, and seven years of mostly drought followed – sustained by the El Nino conditions.  

In February 2009, Professor Franks commented at this weblog that the Australian climate showed signs of entering another wet phase and warned that governments should prepare for a return to a 20-40 year period where La Nina dominates.

Just over a year later, in April 2010, the negative IPO now entrenched, a strong La Nina began to form and flooding rains followed.

Indeed the explanation for the recent devastating flooding is not carbon dioxide, but inadequate infrastructure and warning systems in the face of a combination of La Nina conditions during a negative IPO, a monsoon trough and already saturated catchments.

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Better Planning for Extreme Floods Possible: A Note from Stewart Franks
February 27th, 2009
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/2009/02/better-planning-for-extreme-floods-possible/

Wivenhoe Dam and Brisbane Flood Mitigation: A Note from Tony

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 WITH respect to what has happened in this major flood disaster in Brisbane, the role played by the huge Wivenhoe Dam in this flood will be called into question, and as the cleanup is starting now, many more questions will be asked in the wash up, if you’ll excuse the lame pun, and a lot of those questions will have political ramifications.

There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that this monster dam played an absolutely crucial role in preventing what could have been an even worse disaster. I have mentioned earlier that this huge dam held back water that would have made this flood something not worth even contemplating.

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Brisbane Valley Being Evaculated

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This afternoon there was flash flooding in Toowoomba. 

This evening parts of the Brisbane Valley are being evaculated.   Up to 5,000 people may be affected. 

Floods Steal Precious Topsoil?

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According to journalist Peter Sheehan writing in today’s Sydney Morning Herald:

“The rivers have been running brown. A lot of the lifeblood of this country has been gushing away in liquid mountains we don’t even see.  A few sages warned that the worst thing that could happen to Australia after a decade of drought was sustained rain…

In the piece Mr Sheehan goes on to repeat many of the myths about Australian farming.  What he doesn’t mention is that farming practices have significantly improved over recent decades.  Indeed once upon a time sugarcane farmers in Queensland used to crop the hillsides and then burn the residue before harvest.  Now they only farm the flats and mulch as they harvest through a process known as ‘green cane trash blanketing’.  

And certainly the Fitzroy Catchment was not drought ravaged when the recent floods hit, which may explain why relative to past flood, Bill Burrows, in a recent post at this blog, described the current flood as relatively “clean”.

Read the piece by Peter Sheehan here:  
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/floods-steal-precious-topsoil–and-future-goes-down-drain-20110109-19jrq.html

But then also go to the trouble of getting some perspective by reading someone who does know about farming and Australia’s top soil, I am referring to David F. Smith, former  Director-General of Agriculture for Victoria, and his article ‘Green Myths About Australian Farming’ first published at Quadrant Online here:

http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2009/4/green-myths-about-australian-farming

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