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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Economics

Protecting the integrity of Eco-accreditation

December 5, 2007 By neil

In what has been described as an important victory, Ecotourism Australia has been granted a number of interlocutory court orders by the Queensland Supreme Court, to protect both intellectual property and also the public from potentially misleading environmental marketing.

Ecotourism Australia found that an uncertified operator was using its ECO Certification Logo, without permission. The Eco Certification Program provides accreditation to successful eco and nature tourism applicants in Australia and is now being exported as the International Ecotourism Standard.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Economics

Conservation Values in the Daintree

November 7, 2007 By neil

Daintree Rainforest.jpg

The Australian Rainforest Foundation (ARF) has recently distributed an explanation of its position and the work it has been tasked to do, particularly where it applies to the rainforest areas between the Daintree River and Cape Tribulation.

Much of what it describes as ‘always controversial’ is all too frequently rationalised against a series of subdivisions that were registered by the Queensland Government in the early eighties. What is rarely offered, by way of qualification, is that this decision was made in favour of competing interests that sought substantive removal of rainforest for sugar-cane cropping, on lands that had been held under freehold title for much of the preceding century. With a full disclosure of historical fact, the decision to oppose the expansion of sugar-cane was remarkably enlightened in its protection of an extraordinary rainforest habitat.

Not that the significant number of residential properties, with existing-use-rights, was without concern; indeed, if all twelve-hundred properties were developed to capacity, there would have been significant habitat losses. In recognition of these concerns, $23million was allocated in the mid-nineties for voluntary acquisition and conversion to National Park.

For resolution of outstanding concerns at the conclusion of this program, the Daintree Futures Study was undertaken and submitted to the Wet Tropics Ministerial Council. Three spheres of government were to sign a Memorandum Of Agreement to endorse its recommendations, including the package of financial contributions from Commonwealth and Queensland Governments and the Douglas Shire Council.

The Queensland Government was to allocate $16.1million to Ergon to supply grid electricity, but the Queensland Minister for Mines and Energy effectively circumvented the requirement by authorising an amended policy that prohibited the supply of electricity using a network and excised the Daintree region from Ergon’s distribution area.

The Douglas Shire Council was to collect an extra $1million from the Daintree River ferry over five years, but its specific purpose tourism/conservation levy was ultimately ruled illegal by the Queensland Supreme Court.

The Commonwealth government was to underwrite a $10million Daintree Land Trust, however, the Ministerial Council rather agreed to fund $300,000 each from Commonwealth and Queensland governments and an additional $400,000 outstanding from the previous $23million, to establish a $1million seeding grant for the ARF, as described in the above-mentioned explanation.

Tens of millions of dollars have been poured into ‘Daintree Conservation’ over the years, with changing names on title, covenants, property boundaries being reconfigured and development rights expropriated. There is little debate that this area of outstanding conservation value should be protected and to the greatest possible extent. To this end, its resident community has been regulated into a conservation land-use function, but what it requires, more than anything else, is an appropriate economy and one that is not contingent upon development. So far, none of the ‘rescue programs’ have managed to provide this requirement.

As a relatively recent land-holder, the ARF is grappling with the same conservation challenges as all landholders within the Daintree; its application for compensation for loss of development rights is an expression of an economic lack of choice.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Economics

A Sunspot Correlation?

October 23, 2007 By Paul

An unusual paper has appeared in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change:

Sunspots, GDP and the stock market

Theodore Modis

Abstract

A correlation has been observed between the US GDP and the number of sunspots as well as between the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and the number of sunspots. The data cover 80 years of history. The observed correlations permit forecasts for the GDP and for the stock market in America with a future horizon of 10 years. Both being above their long-term trend they are forecasted to go over a peak around Jun-2008.

The paper concludes:

…..If one accepts that there must be some correlation between GDP growth and stock-market growth as
displayed in Fig. 5, then one cannot use the lack of scientific proof as an argument against the existence of
correlation between the stock market and sunspots (Fig. 2), or between GDP and sunspots (Fig. 4). On the
other hand, if these correlations are real, then we can venture long-range forecasts for the DJIA and the GDP….

….The levels forecasted here for the DJIA of 13908 in mid 2008 and 7919 in early 2014….

Well, we won’t have to wait too long to test the mid 2008 prediction. There’s time enough for Lockwood & Frohlich to debunk The Great GDP Sunspot Swindle, and for James Hansen to make several adjustments.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Economics

Queensland Scrub Sold for Carbon: A Note from Tom Marland

May 29, 2007 By jennifer

Hi Jennifer,

You may have read on the front page of Courier Mail on Saturday the article about Queensland’s First Carbon Farmer, Peter Allen.

Here is the link:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,21794589-952,00.html?from=public_rss

The project was the first avoided deforestation project of its kind in Australia and one of the biggest in the world.

The project secured 12,000 hectares of vegetation which was eligible to be cleared under the Stat Governments 500,000 hectare clearing ballot process.

It was estimated (both ground truthed and reconciled with the AGO) that the project prevented 1,200,000 tonnes of C02 emission being released into the atmosphere.

The cut off date for clearing permits to be acted upon was the 31 December 2006 which brought an end to broad scale land clearing of remnant vegetation in Queensland

It is amazing to read some of the responses in the article and also on the blog entries linked to the project.

Instead of being supportive of a project to protect vegetation and reduce greenhouse gas emissions many people were critical of the project.

One response was:

“I thought Peter Beattie past a law a couple of years ago that said no established forest of natural growth could be bulldozed. This farmer appears to have pulled a good one to me, He’s turned a few baron and unusable acres of scrub into a million bucks”

Another response:

‘How come the farmer, was in a position to destroy all those trees in the first place? There’s no moral here, merely a financial decision! Such thinking has created the problem in the first place and that by a shear a ‘twist of circumstances’ makes the farmer look ethical.’

Green groups have come on board to say the voluntary market is open to exploitation, with no controls on who can sell carbon and no checks on the work carried out.

However, to eligible under the scheme vegetation had to be approved by the Australian Greenhouse Office under the Greenhouse Friendly initiative.

To secure the carbon, landholders had to agree to enter into ‘carbon rights’ agreements.

Briefly, the ‘carbon rights’ agreement consists of:

– A 120 year agreement not to clear the vegetation which binds to title for future owners;
– On-going grazing and management is allowed to reduce bush fires, weed outbreaks and feral animal infestations;
– The agreement areas are surveyed and added to the survey plan.

To account for fire and carbon loss a 20% buffer was added to area eligible to be sold for credits.

In the future, there are further ‘avoided deforestation’ projects planned for eligible vegetation in Queensland and Northern New South Wales.

This eligible vegetation must meet the requirements set down under the Kyoto Protocol definition of forest and enforced by the Australian Greenhouse Office.

Landholders are already skeptical of the merits of reduced land clearing after the way in which Premier Beattie and the Queensland State Government have enacted and enforced the Vegetation Management Act.

Now the job will be even harder to convince eligible landholders to enter into the project because of the criticism that the project may attract.

The Allen’s (who were interviewed for the article) did not want the media attention but where interested in the diversification of income potential in selling the rights to carbon held in their vegetation on their own land and also the opportunity to contribute something back to the environment.

However, the attitude from many (mostly urban) is that it should be an ‘ethical’ decision rather than financial.

People want the benefits but no one wants to pay for it. We (the farmers) cant win.

For more information on the project go to www.carbonpool.com.au .

Cheers,
Tom Marland

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Economics, Rangelands

The disposal of our heritage

April 24, 2007 By neil

Blue Pool.jpg

Douglas Shire Council (DSC) has authorised the public release of its Blue Hole Reserve draft Management Plan, which aims to create a reserve for community purposes at a site of global environmental and cultural heritage significance, at the centre of the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest.

The underlying objective, it would seem, is to commandeer a designated area for public swimming and other associated recreational activities.

The draft applies to a portion of land known colloquially as the ‘Blue Hole’ incorporating property on a diversity of tenures surrounding a deep pool situated on a bend in Cooper Creek. It is inextricably connected to Cooper Creek Wilderness within the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, which is a pre-existing authorized provider of regulated public access to World Heritage goods and services, including recreational access to Cooper Creek on a user-pays basis.

Interestingly, Queensland’s Parks and Wildlife Service (the State’s principle land manager with over ninety-percent of the area) has opposed the formal sanctioning of such a facility on National Park, because of environmental sensitivities, cultural heritage values and legal liability.

Surely if the Queensland Government wants a venue for unrestricted public swimming in the Daintree Cape Tribulation region, then it should develop one or more, BUT PLEASE on its own lands; National Park in particular, declared for that very purpose and manageable under the provisions of the Nature Conservation Act 1992 and its various regulations.

Cooper Creek Wilderness is a working-model of private-sector management through best-practice ecotourism. It does not have the statutory authority that would allow for management of the public at large. Indeed, having signed a conservation agreement with the Minister for Environment, it is not permitted to allow the public at large to enter its Nature Refuge.

The site is also unsuitable for the proposed use because of its extremely important cultural heritage values to its traditional custodians as a birthing site and spiritual resting place for the unborn, since a time immemorial. As a requirement of the Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act 2003, the proponent has a duty of care to take all reasonable and practical measures to ensure their activities do not harm cultural heritage.

The Cultural Heritage Report, prepared by Dr. Nicky Horsfall in November 2005, recommends that,

“The proposed reserve should be made to protect the natural and cultural values; it should not become a recreational reserve.”

Collapse.jpg

The environmental report for the draft, prepared by consultant biologist Dr. Robyn Wilson, states;

Dr Wilson observed during her site inspection that a large tree (Ristantia pachysperma) on the northern bank near the tributary, that was helping to stabilize part of the bank, had collapsed and was filling the northern end of the Blue Hole. Dr Wilson surmises that a fact that may have contributed to its collapse was people climbing this tree to access a rope swing. Access to this tree would have compacted the soil at the base, which was eventually eroded and washed away by floodwater.

This proposal to provide unrestricted pedestrian access for recreation will devastate Cooper Creek Wilderness, which was effectively expropriated of development capability when it was compulsorily inscribed within Australia’s Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, except for the highly regulated provision of public access to World Heritage goods and services on a user-pays basis.

For years Cooper Creek Wilderness has formally requested a seat at the negotiating table to develop a cooperative solution to a complex management issue across multiple tenures, but has hitherto been denied such an invitation. Providing free-entry, unrestricted public access to that which Cooper Creek Wilderness has been compulsorily regulated to provide on a user-pays basis, is unconscionable.

There is a very acceptable solution to this matter that doesn’t involve the destruction of Cooper Creek Wilderness, but it would seem the proponents of this draft are resolutely disinterested.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Economics

Sir Nicholas Stern’s Report: First Impressions

October 31, 2006 By jennifer

Some British economist puts out a report on the economics of climate change for her majesty the Queen and the Australian media and the Left go gag-gag. Fran Kelly from your ABC announced it as The Report the world has been waiting for.

Lying in bed this morning listening to Fran, I was wishing, yet again, that Australia was a republic.

I’ve since made it to my computer, opened the report and discovered the Executive Summary, at least, isn’t too bad.

Sir Nicholas Stern begins by repeating that the scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response.

Sir Nicholas Stern then explains the methodology used to determine the global economic cost of climate: “a number of different techniques to assess costs and risks.”

I am impressed that the report acknowledges that climate change is a global issue and therefore stresses the need for an international response. Contrast this with Kyoto where the expectation is that only the developed world needs to actually do anything. The Executive Summary suggests a key element of any future international framework should be the expansion and linking of the growing number of emissions trading schemes to promote cost-effective reductions in emissions and bring forward action in developing countries.

The Executive Summary also acknowledges the importance of adapting to climate change with reference to the importance of building resilience because it is no longer possible to prevent climate change. Building on this theme the Executive Summary finishes with comment about the importance of research into new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood. On this point I assume Sir Nicholas Stern would support the lifting of the ban on GM food crops which limit the commercialization of new crop varieties in Australia.

Interestingly the Executive Summary states that coal will continue to be an important source of energy into the future and advocates carbon capture and storage to allow the continued use of fossil fuels without damage to the atmosphere. This could be interpreted as an endorsement of the Australian Government’s approach with money pledged just yesterday for a carbon capture project in central Queensland.

The report appears to be based on at least one very flawed assumption. The Executive Summary repeats and repeats the misconception that we can some how stabilize atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. If what Sir Stern is trying to say, is that we should endeavor to not add any more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere then he should be clearer in his language. Even Al Gore, in his movie ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, acknowledged that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have always fluctuated. Does anybody seriously think they could be stabilized in the future?

The Executive Summary is as misleading as Al Gore’s movie when it states that the cost of extreme weather, including floods, droughts and storms is already rising. Why yes, because there are more people building more expensive houses in places like Florida. But this does not mean that the number of extreme weather events has increased, a mistake both Gore and Sir Stern appear to make.

I haven’t yet read beyond the Executive Summary, but I note that according to today’s The Australian in a piece entitled ‘Bell tolls down under on warming’ in the detail of the report, it is claimed the east coast of Australia already has longer droughts and declining rainfall. Surely Sir Stern checked the charts at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology which don’t show any long term decline in rainfall. I hope he didn’t base his analysis on media headlines or modelled output?

I am also concerned that the economic analysis fails to mention any of the benefits of living in a warmer world. Then again the report does state up front that it is based on “costs and risks”. But, hang on, there will be some benefits. For example, there are significant potential benefits from the likely longer growing season for agriculture in Europe and North America.

It is also a bit annoying that the Executive Summary of such an evidently important report, apparently based on “costs and risks”, fails to explain what the biggest costs are going to be. According to the report, global warming is going to cost trillions, but I guess I am going to have to read 700 pages if I am to understand exactly why. Is the biggest cost the potential displacement of people now living in cities beside the sea?

The Queen of England’s House of Lords brought down a very large report on this same topic just last year and it came to a very different conclusion. Interestingly that report was pretty much ignored by the Australian media. What is it about Sir Nicholas Stern, that the Fran Kelly’s of this world so like? Does Sir Stern have a good publicist, or is it all in his name?

You can read the full stern report by clicking here.

You can read the House of Lords’ report by clicking here.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, Economics, Energy & Nuclear

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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