Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

Metres of Sea-Level Rise: Climate Commissioner

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WILL Steffen is the executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute and also a member of the Australian Climate Commission. This is the Climate Commission established to provide all Australians with an independent and reliable source of information about the science of climate change. This is the same Professor Steffan who, you may remember, sort of fudged hot day data for western Sydney [1].

My name is Mr Koala and I’ve been reading the latest contribution from this professor who is paid to provide me with an independent and reliable source of information on climate change.

He has a piece in today’s national newspaper, The Australian. It’s really scary! Professor Steffan tell us:

“Scientists have painted a clear picture of the risks from failing to act on climate change. The natural world would experience the sixth great extinction event in Earth’s history, coral reefs would almost completely disappear, and we would be facing metres of sea-level rise as oceans continue to warm and polar ice sheets melt and disintegrate.”

Ouch. Nemo!

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How the Oceans Get Warm: Robert E. Stevenson

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THERE are only ever a small number of scientists who can explain a phenomenon from first principles and these experts will often speak in jargon that is unintelligible[1]. But every so often one comes across a real expert who appears to not only have a deep understanding of a subject area, but can also write with clarity on that subject.

The oceanographer the late Robert E. Stevenson [2] wrote a short article for Science and Technology Magazine in 2000 disputing the popular consensus on how the oceans warm [3]. In the following extract from ‘Yes, the Ocean has Warmed; No, It’s Not Global Warming’, Dr Stevenson claims that:

1. Sunlight directly heats the ocean to a certain depth, up to 100 metres;
2. The ocean heat balance is maintained by heat loss to the atmosphere, not to the deep ocean; and
3. Infrared radiation from greenhouse gases heats only the top few millimetres of the ocean and as a consequence is soon dissipated by evaporation.
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IPCC Commissioned Report Damning of IPCC Processes and Procedures

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THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a review of its processes and procedures with a report handed down in October 2010, but only just now made publically available at its website.[1]

I’ve only just started to examine the 100 plus page document, but my first impressions are that finally we have an official report that may impose a level of accountability on the IPCC.

OK. I’m expecting too much!

Well at least the report highlights past errors and acknowledges that they have been significant.

The section on “Evaluation of evidence and treatment of uncertainty” includes comment that:

Authors reported high confidence in statements for which there is little evidence, such as the widely quoted statement that agricultural yields in Africa might decline by up to 50 percent by 2020. Moreover, the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be disputed. In these cases the impression was often left, incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented…

Assigning probabilities to an outcome makes little sense unless researchers are confident in the underlying evidence…

The Working Group II Summary for Policy makers in the Fourth Assessment Report contains many vague statements of ‘high confidence’ that are not supported sufficiently in the literature, not put in perspective, or are difficult to refute. The Committee believes it is not appropriate to assign probabilities to such statements.

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Australia’s Hottest: Withdrawn

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THE last really sensational global warming story broadcast by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has been withdrawn – but not by the ABC.  There has been not a word on the new development from the ABC or any of the other media outlets that originally reported on it.

The story made headlines around the world following a media release from the University of Melbourne and the endorsement of David Karoly:

‘The last 50 years in Australia have been the warmest.

The researchers from Melbourne University used 27 different natural indicators like tree rings and ice cores to come to their conclusion, which will be a part of the next United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change report.

The findings show that no other period in the last 1,000 years matches the temperature rises Australia and the region has experienced in the last 50 years.’[1]

Sounds like another hockey stick doesn’t it? Following scrutiny at Steve McIntyre’s blog ‘Climate Audit’ the paper how been withdrawn.[2] Dr Karoly advised Mr McIntyre thus:

Dear Stephen,

I am contacting you on behalf of all the authors of the Gergis et al (2012) study ‘Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium’

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, which may affect the results. While the paper states that “both proxy climate and instrumental data were linearly detrended over the 1921–1990 period”, we discovered on Tuesday 5 June that the records used in the final analysis were not detrended for proxy selection, making this statement incorrect. Although this is an unfortunate data processing issue, it is likely to have implications for the results reported in the study.

The journal has been contacted and the publication of the study has been put on hold.

This is a normal part of science. The testing of scientific studies through independent analysis of data and methods strengthens the conclusions. In this study, an issue has been identified and the results are being re-checked.

We would be grateful if you would post the notice below on your ClimateAudit web site.

We would like to thank you and the participants at the ClimateAudit blog for your scrutiny of our study, which also identified this data processing issue.

Thanks, David Karoly

Print publication of scientific study put on hold
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium” by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.
We are currently reviewing the data and results.

If only they would now withdraw the next United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change report, the carbon tax, and…

 

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1] Last 50 years were Australia’s hottest: study
Matthew Carney, May 17, 2012
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/study-says-last-fifty-years-were-australias-hottest/4016304/?site=science/memory&topic=latest

2] Gergis et al Put on Hold, Steve McIntyre, June 8, 2012 http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/08/gergis-et-al-put-on-hold/

Using Artificial Intelligence to Forecast Rainfall

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OVER the last year, John Abbot and I have worked on a new method for forecasting rainfall based on the use of artificial intelligence.

We have benchmarked our forecasts against output from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s General Circulation Model (POAMA 1.5).  Our model gives a more accurate forecast for 16 of the 17 sites in Queensland that have the highest quality rainfall data. Our methodology is detailed in a new paper that will soon be published in the international journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.[1]

Artificial neural networks can find existing complex relationships and patterns repeated in rainfall data.  The neural network software that we run on our standard laptop computer, can perform millions of calculations very quickly, and in this way find natural patterns that repeat themselves.

In contrast, the Bureau uses general circulation models; the same models used to predict global warming. These models attempt to forecast seasonal and monthly rainfall by working from a particular theory of climate. Our system is radically different in that we let the model find the patterns.  We let the model find the natural cycles and then forecast forward up to 9 months.

That our system works, proves that there are patterns – natural recurrent cycles – in historical rainfall data.

Contrary to some of the claims of some climate sceptics: the natural hydrological cycle is not totally chaotic.

Contrary to the claims of most warmists: these natural rainfall cycles have not been perturbed by the current elevated levels of carbon dioxide.

What we did is tune one of the most advanced off-the-shelf software packages for pattern recognition (Synapse, Peltarion) into the natural patterns and recurrent cycles in historic rainfall data.

We found a combination of historic rainfall and temperature data combined with historic data for three climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Nino 3.4) gave the most accurate forecasts. Inclusion of solar irradiance and sunspot number did not enhance the performance of our model.  Inputting carbon dioxide concentrations doesn’t improve our model.

We believe we have barely scratched the surface in terms of potential for rainfall forecasting using this method for eastern Australia and are looking for significant additional funding to progress this work.

The work has so far been wholly funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation and supported by the Centre for Plant and Water Science at Central Queensland University.

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[1] Email me at jennifermarohasy at jennifermarohasy.com if you would like an advance copy of our paper:

John Abbot and Jennifer Marohasy
Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Rainfall Forecasting in Queensland, Australia
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 29, Number 4, Pages 717-730.

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