Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

Following-Up on that Climate Debate: William Kininmonth & David Karoly

By

Hi Jen,

All things considered, I thought the debate went very well. The show of hands at the end indicated 50-50. I have had complimentary calls today. The following is a summary that Des Moore has sent around.

Climate Debate – Hawthorn Town Hall – 19 Nov

I attended last night a debate between Professor David Karoly, who is an adviser to Professor Garnaut and Victorian Premier John Brumby, and William Kininmonth at the Hawthorn Town Hall on “We should be concerned with human-caused climate change”.

I estimate that about 220 people attended and there was an “active” question time after the speakers completed their presentations. A show-of-hands vote taken at the conclusion suggested a slight majority in favour of WK.

I will not atttempt here to analyse the issues raised by either side other than to mention the heavy reliance on modelling by DK to “prove” his points. However, it is worth noting  the marked contrast in style of presentation, with DK adopting an aggressive approach (that provoked an initial adverse reaction from the audience) and WK adopting a calm relaxed one.

There is little doubt that DK’s approach lost him “votes” and, more importantly, left an impression that his expertise was not necessarily something on which much reliance should be placed. Indeed, it served to (again) confirm doubts about the basis of the science used by the IPCC, for which DK was a lead author…

My guess is that DK was a bit taken aback by the audience response, including a number of sensible questions…

Des Moore

The local Community TV Channel 31 filmed the event to show later and they said they would send a copy to me.

Regards,
Bill

Earliest Temperature Records from Near the North Pole (Subarctic Temperatures Part 1)

By

IT is generally agreed that there has been some global warming over the last 100 or so years and that this has been most pronounced in the Arctic – at the North Pole. 

There is temperature data for Hudson Bay in central Canada – not at the North Pole, or within the Arctic Circle, but nevertheless a long way north – back to 1768.  

In 1768 two astronomers from the Royal Society were sent to observe the transit of Venus at Hudson Bay (see Instrumental Temperature Records at Two Sites in Central Canada: 1768 to 1910.  Timothy Ball and Roger Kingsley, Climate Change, Vol 6. pgs 39-56. ).  

At the late John Daly’s website, Miceal O’Ronain has plotted this very early record, and subsequent records from the Hudson’s Bay Company, with data from the modern weather station at Churchill to 2002.

The earlier records suggest great variation in the temperature in the nineteenth century, but this may be an artefact of how it was measured.  The upswing at the very end of the twentieth century is probably real and corresponds with the present period of decline in the extent of sea ice at the Arctic particularly in summer.

[Click on the chart for a larger and much clearer view.]
 

 

 

Brisbane: Lecture on Oceans and Climate Change

By

BrisScience: Friend or Foe? The Ocean¹s Response to Climate Change presented
by Dr Ben McNeil
Time: 6:30pm to 7:30pm (Doors open at 6pm)
Monday 8 December, 2008
Venue: Ithaca Auditorium, Brisbane City Hall
Refreshments: There will be complimentary drinks and nibblies following the
talk, and Ben will be available to answer any questions.

*********

Friend or Foe? The Ocean’s Response to Climate Change
Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is the principle driver of future
climate change. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased 30% beyond
pre-industrial levels through human combustion of fossil-fuel carbon and
will continue to increase rapidly into the future. The ocean covers 70% of
the earths surface, is the largest active reservoir of carbon on earth and
is the most important natural sink for reducing anthropogenic atmospheric
CO2. The ocean controls atmospheric CO2through both biological cycling
(phytoplankton production) and solubility cycling (thermodynamics). Here I
will discuss the latest scientific understanding governing climate change
impacts on the ocean : including implications for global circulation and
heat transport, oceanic CO2 uptake, pH acidification and changes in oceanic
biological production. I can then synthesize the likely future implications
in order to answer whether the oceans will be working for us or against us
in slowing climate change.

Ben McNeil is an Australian academic who is an expert in a range of areas
relating to climate change science, policy and energy.
Completing his PhD in 2001 he worked as a research fellow at Princeton
University, USA and returned to Australia in 2004, where he is now a senior
research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of
New South Wales. In 2007, he was chosen as an expert reviewer for the United
Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change 4th assessment report and
was invited to present his research to the Prime Minister and cabinet at
Parliament House in Canberra. He was also recently elected to represent
young scientists in the Federation of Australian Science and Technological
Societies.

His writing on climate change and energy policy has been widely published in
Australia¹s newspapers including the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, The
Australian and The Canberra Times. He has also made numerous radio and
television appearances including ABC Radio National, CNN, BBC and Sky News
Australia.

************

A New Book by Geologist Marc Hendrickx

By

Dear Jennifer,
I enjoy your work, here’s a new climate change book for your Christmas reading:
We’re not scared anymore Mr Gore.
A climate change parody by geologist Marc Hendrickx.
Synopsis:
Ms Green is surprised when Mr Gore comes to teach the class about the dangers of climate change.
Mr Gore looks at the evidence and the outcomes of man made global warming. It’s scary stuff.
He gets a lot of help on the way from Ms Green but in the end It’s Mr Gore who learns a thing or two about the climate. How fast can you run Mr Gore?
For more information see:
http://littleskepticpress.blogspot.com/2008/11/were-not-scared-anymore-mr-gore.html
Cheers
Marc Hendrickx

The Absurdity of a Reliable Average Global Surface Temperature

By

ACCURATELY recording the temperature of a body that is not in equilibrium can be complicated.  Recording the average surface temperature of the earth reliably, and with such accuracy that one can know with certainty that there has been a less than one degree Celsius change over one hundred years, probably impossible. 

Dr Vincent Gray explains why, and begins at the very beginning with an explanation of “temperature” and how it is measured:

TEMPERATURE is one of the six basic units of the SI (Metric) system, but is the least understood  and most mysterious of all of them.

It originally arose as a method of assessing heat level, which could be measured by the change in length of a liquid inside a glass capillary. The scale was divided into a number of equal units between “fixed” points.

In 1724, Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit chose three fixed points. Zero was the temperature of a mixture of ice, water and ammonium chloride, which he considered to represent the lowest possible temperature on the earth’s surface (he was wrong). Then he chose the melting point of ice as 32 degrees, which meant the boiling point of water was 212 degrees. It is amazing that this cumbersome and inconvenient system survived for so long, and is still used in the USA.

[Read more…] about The Absurdity of a Reliable Average Global Surface Temperature

Global Warming: Sweden to Gain Economically

By

SWEDEN is, like Australia, experiencing the effects of an upward trend in temperatures that by some has been attributed to the recorded increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. However, Sweden unlike Australia is likely to gain economically from global warming.

Sweden has been in the forefront of implementing energy efficient building standards borne out of necessity. Swedes have always favoured smaller four cylinder cars with heated front and passengers seats, a feature which you learn to appreciate during the winter months. The winters in Northern Sweden are fierce with sub zero temperatures for months on end and very little if any daylight.

[Read more…] about Global Warming: Sweden to Gain Economically