Jennifer Marohasy

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Climate & Climate Change

Leading UK Climate Scientists Must Explain or Resign

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McIntyre_rcs_chronologies_rev2MOST scientific sceptics have been dismissive of the various reconstructions of temperature which suggest 1998 is the warmest year of the past millennium.    Our case has been significantly bolstered over the last week with statistician Steve McIntyre finally getting access to data used by Keith Briffa,  Tim Osborn  and Phil Jones to support the idea that there has been an unprecedented upswing in temperatures over the last hundred years –  the infamous hockey stick graph.  

Mr McIntyre’s analysis of the data – which he had been asking for since 2003 – suggests that scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the Hadley Centre associated with the UK Met. Office  have been using only a small subset of the available data to make their claims that recent years have been the hottest of the last millennium.   When the entire data set is used, Mr McIntyre claims that the hockey stick shape disappears completely. [1]    

Mr McIntyre has previously showed problems with the mathematics behind the ‘hockey stick’.   But scientists at the Climate Research Centre (CRU), in particular Dr Briffa, have continuously republished claiming the upswing in temperatures over the last 100 years is real and not an artifact of the methodology used – as claimed by Mr McIntyre.     However, these same scientists have denied Mr McIntyre access to all the data.    Recently they were forced to make more data available to Mr McIntyre after they published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society  –  a journal which unlike Nature and Science has strict policies on data archiving which it enforces.   [Read more…] about Leading UK Climate Scientists Must Explain or Resign

Melting Glaciers and Cognitive Dissonance

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Glacial_lakes,_BhutanMOUNTAIN glaciers in Asia are melting at a rate that could eventually threaten water supplies, irrigation or hydropower for 20 percent to 25 percent of the world’s population: that is according to the latest United Nations Environment Program report.

Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute puts it this way, “The melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau will deprive the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow rivers of the ice melt that sustains their flow during the dry season and the irrigation systems that depend on them.”

But according to Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, it’s a case of cognitive dissonance.  He explains:

“In other words the supply of melt water from the melting glaciers is threatened by the melting of the glaciers. This is correct in that if the glaciers melt completely there will be no more melt water from the glaciers.

“What if the glaciers were not melting due to a colder climate? Then where would the irrigation water come from? How about if the glaciers were advancing 100 meters per year toward the villages that need the melt water for irrigation?   [Read more…] about Melting Glaciers and Cognitive Dissonance

Exile for Non-Believers: Polar Bear Expert Told to Stay Home

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polarbearcreditsusannemiller“MITCHELL Taylor is a Polar Bear researcher who has caught more polar bears and worked on more polar bear groups than any other, but he was effectively ostracized from the Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) specifically because he has publicly expressed doubts that there is a crisis due to carbon dioxide emissions. 

“Dr Andy Derocher, the outgoing chairman of the PSBG and Professor at the University of  Alberta, wrote to inform Taylor that he was not welcome at the 2009 meeting of the PBSG.

“Keep in mind as you read his comments (below) that Taylor had arranged funding to attend the meeting in Copenhagen, and has been at every meeting of this group since 1981. With 30 years of experience in polar bear research, it goes without saying that he has something to contribute to any discussion about polar bear conservation. This is the original email from Derocher to Taylor explaining why he was not invited:    [Read more…] about Exile for Non-Believers: Polar Bear Expert Told to Stay Home

Latest Meteorological Update: August 2009

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Dear All,

Please find attached a newsletter* with meteorological information updated to August 2009. All temperatures are shown in degrees Celsius.

In the maps showing the geographical pattern of temperatures, the period
1998-2006 is used as reference period. The reason for comparing with this recent period instead of the official WMO ‘normal’ period 1961-1990, is that the latter period is affected by the relatively cold period 1945-1980. Almost any comparison with such a low average value will therefore appear as high or warm, and it will be difficult to decide if modern surface air temperatures are increasing or decreasing. Comparing with a more recent period overcomes this problem.

In the other diagrams the thin line represents the monthly global average value, and the thick line indicate a simple running average, in most cases a 37-month average.

The year 1979 has been chosen as starting point in several of the diagrams, as this roughly corresponds to both the beginning of satellite observations and the onset of the late 20th century warming period.

Surface air temperatures August 2009 was generally low at northern mid latitudes. Also southern Africa experienced relatively low temperatures this month. In contrast, equatorial Pacific Ocean, northern Argentina and Australia were relatively warm.

In the Arctic, most of the Arctic had temperatures near or below the
1998-2006 average. Only northern Canada and parts of Greenland was relatively warm. In the Antarctic, most of the eastern part of the continent was relatively cold in August 2009, while parts of the peninsula and the region around the Ross Sea and ajoining land areas were relatively warm.

All diagrams and figures are also available on http://www.climate4you.com/

Yours sincerely,
Ole Humlum

*********************************************

*If you would like to receive the monthly updates email Ole.Humlum at geo.uio.no .  The information is also available at http://www.climate4you.com/

Ole Humlum is Professor of Physical Geography Department of Physical Geography, Institute of Geosciences University of Oslo, Box 1047 Blindern
N-0316 Oslo, Norway

Email: Ole.Humlum at geo.uio.no
Web: http://www.geo.uio.no/geogr/staff/olehum.html

Why I am an Anthropogenic Global Warming Sceptic: Barry Moore

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Barry Moore cutTHE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports are a collection of mind numbing statistics from which they claim “solid scientific proof” that man made CO2 is causing global warming. From these statistics empirical formula have been generated which form the basis of the computer programs that are then used to “prove” the empirical formula.

This is circular logic and the output of a computer cannot be used to prove the validity of its programming inputs.

The only way an empirical formula can be validated is by experimental results or by strict mathematical proof based on accepted scientific laws.

Not one of the predictions made by some 29 computer programs in the past 10 to 15 years even remotely resembles the climate of the past 10 years.  
[Read more…] about Why I am an Anthropogenic Global Warming Sceptic: Barry Moore