Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

The Need for a New Theory of Climate (Part 1)

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KARL Popper and Thomas Kuhn, two great philosophers of science, agree that scientific progress involve the critical overthrow of theories and their replacement by alternative ones.  For Popper the replacement occurs following the falsification of universal statements while for Kuhn change is necessarily revolutionary, involving more than a change in the claims made and questions asked but also in the way the world is perceived and a change in the standards that are brought to bear in appraising a theory.    While these two philosophers are considered by many to propose rival accounts of science, both theories are relevant to understanding climate change science.  

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New CSIRO Climate Forecast for SE Australia Unbelievable

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On Thursday the New South Wales Government officially declared the nine-year drought ended.  The very next day the CSIRO released a report warning that the ‘current drought’ appears to be at least partly linked to ‘climate change’. 

The CSIRO report entitled ‘Climate variability and change in south-eastern Australia’ is an initiative of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative, SEACI, lead by CSIRO with input from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. 

The report forecasts a future decline in rainfall and works from the assumption there is already long term decline. 

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‘Miracles, Media and the Murray’ on ABC TV

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Backstage at the ABC Television studios on Monday night, after the Q&A program where I appeared as a panellist, the compere, Tony Jones, complained to Tim Flannery that he didn’t adequately refute my answers to the climate change questions.    Of course, Tony could always invite me onto his Lateline program where he could ‘grill’ me himself.  

For those who missed the Q&A program on television you can watch it here:
 http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3034998.htm

It’s entitled ‘Miracles, Media and the Murray’.   

I was disappointed the Murray issue was left until so late to be discussed.   I’ve received some comment that I went too hard on this issue, and other comment that I didn’t say enough.  

Interestingly I was invited onto Q&A specifically to discuss this issue and felt a need to at least provide the small amount of information that I did; in particular that the environment of the Lower Lakes could be dramatically improved by opening the huge steel and concrete barriers during periods of drought so that there was natural ebb and flow between the Lakes and the Southern Ocean.

For those of you wondering what was written on my tee shirt under the grey jacket, it was ‘Save the Murray: Remove the Barrages’.

Belief in the Truth of a Climate Theory

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I wrote these two laws down on a scrap of paper years ago. I still have the scrap of paper but not the original reference.

Harris’s First Law:

Belief in the truth of a theory is inversely proportional to the precision of the science.

Harris’s Second Law:

The creativity of a scientist is directly proportional to how much he knows, and inversely proportional to how much he believes.

We know climate science is imprecise.   Who are our most knowledgeable and also creative climate scientists?

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first posted August 04, 2005
Belief in the Truth of a Theory
Second posting May 09, 2008
Belief in the Truth of a Theory (Again)

More ABC Bias, But Anyway

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I should probably be flattered to be invited on to the popular ABC TV program Q&A as a panelist.  But why is the promo for the program next Monday advertising Tim Flannery as ‘scientist’ and me as ‘climate sceptic’?

http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/

Tony Jones could refer to us both as ‘scientists’.  Alternatively the promo could suggest Tim is an ‘alarmist’ and me the ‘denier’.

I am not even a climate sceptic… but rather sceptical of what was the consensus position on anthropogenic global warming.

Anyway, it would be good if there were a few other so-called climate change sceptics at the event…  and also some people who don’t believe more water for South Australia will necessarily solve all the environmental problems of the Murray Darling Basin.   So, I am encouraging readers of this blog to try for a place in the studio audience next Monday by applying here: http://www2b.abc.net.au/AudienceBooking/Client/AudienceRegistration.aspx
And you can send in questions via email using this link http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/ask.htm

Also, the annual Australian Environment Foundation Conference is this Saturday at Rydges in Brisbane.  Max Rheese is organising a Q&A session at the Conference dinner on Saturday night, to give me some practice in advance of Monday, October 18th.  Apparently there will be a ‘Tony Jones’ at the dinner and through him you can ask me questions.  It should be a lot of fun.  You can register here: http://aefweb.info/