Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

Tony Windsor Willfully Ignores the Evidence

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THE ability to perceive anomaly – something that deviates from what is considered standard – is important for the progress of science and also good public policy.

Until the recent widespread flooding in Australia, water planning in the Murray Darling Basin was based on the assumption that the region would experience continuing drought because of climate change.  The underlying science was considered the best available because it was endorsed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology and it confidently predicted a major decline in rainfall for decades.

This assumption has since proven wrong.  Indeed during 2010 rainfall was 163 percent of the long term average. 

The latest flooding was predicted by Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle.   Professor Franks, in a series of papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2003, has confirmed and provided explanation, for what many farmers have known intuitively that the Murray Darling Basin generally exists in one of two states – flood or drought.

While recent flooding, and the rainfall totals for the Murray Darling for 2010, dramatically demonstrate the anomaly between government water policy and reality, Tony Windsor, the independent for New England who holds the balance of power in the federal parliament, remains in denial.  Indeed despite the flooding he claims there is no need to rethink reform within the Murray Darling Basin.

In an article published by The Australian yesterday Mr Windsor went as far as to suggest that the Murray River is still dying.

So the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Australian Greens and now even the Independent member for the rural seat of New England are willfully ignoring evidence that contradicts their beliefs.  This is a bad omen for public policy in Australia.

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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/windsor-rejects-rethink-on-basin-plan/story-fn59niix-1225989031335

Time to Reject AGW – And Bob Brown

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EVER the opportunist, Bob Brown, Leader of the Australian Greens, yesterday blamed the Brisbane floods on the coal industry for causing global warming. 

But there is no correlation between atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and rainfall or flooding, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, anywhere in Australia. 

There is, however, a correlation between patterns in the major atmospheric-oceanic oscillations and flood events. 

Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle, has shown that the usefulness of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a predictor of flooding depends on whether or not a more complex phenomenon also measured by sea surface temperatures known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in a positive or negative phase. 

In a series of peer-reviewed papers published in the best international journals since 2003, Professor Franks has shown that when the IPO is negative, as it was from 1946 to 1977, then there is a much greater chance that there will be flooding rains if a La Nina forms. 

The IPO started to go negative in 1999, but an El Nino formed in 2001, and seven years of mostly drought followed – sustained by the El Nino conditions.  

In February 2009, Professor Franks commented at this weblog that the Australian climate showed signs of entering another wet phase and warned that governments should prepare for a return to a 20-40 year period where La Nina dominates.

Just over a year later, in April 2010, the negative IPO now entrenched, a strong La Nina began to form and flooding rains followed.

Indeed the explanation for the recent devastating flooding is not carbon dioxide, but inadequate infrastructure and warning systems in the face of a combination of La Nina conditions during a negative IPO, a monsoon trough and already saturated catchments.

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Better Planning for Extreme Floods Possible: A Note from Stewart Franks
February 27th, 2009
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/2009/02/better-planning-for-extreme-floods-possible/

Flood Crisis Consistent with Accentuated Hydrological Cycle: A Note from Luke Walker

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Yesterday David Karoly from Melbourne University’s school of earth sciences told the Sydney Morning Herald that while individual events could not be attributed to climate change, the wild extremes being experienced on the continent were in keeping with scientists’ forecasts of more flooding associated with increased heavy rain events and more droughts as a result of high temperatures and more evaporation.

”On some measures, it’s the strongest La Nina in recorded history … [but] we also have record-high ocean temperatures in northern Australia, which means more moisture evaporating into the air,” he said. ”And that means lots of heavy rain.”

Regular commentator at this blog Luke is of a similar opinion and sent me two charts as supporting information.  Click on the images for a larger, better view.

Luke writes about the charts:

“The first shows the 3pm vapour pressure (VP) averaged over eastern Australian the 3pm vapour – a measure of humidity.   As one can see there is some correlation with eastern Australian rainfall.

“Also shown is Australian tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) averaged for the same period with vapour pressure at 3pm.

“Both SSTs and VP are the highest for the 2010 period – highest since 1970.

“These data are consistent with an enhanced AGW hydrological cycle i.e. much greater atmospheric water content and source of convection.

“I am not saying that AGW caused this La Nina but the data are consistent with AGW adding to the propensity for rainfall as suggested by CSIRO studies and AGW theory.

“Interestingly these January 2011 Brisbane and Fitzroy floods were not caused by tropical cyclones.

“The charts should be of interest to serious sceptics.”

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Relevant CSIRO Report:
Abbs, D.J., McInnes, K.L. and Rafter, T. 2007, The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall and coastal sea levels over South East Queensland, Part 2: A high-resolution modelling study of the effect of climate change on the intensity of extreme rainfall events, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research – A report prepared for the Gold Coast City Council
http://www.hpsc.csiro.au/users/abb029/Seth_Westra/GCCC_Phase2_final.pdf

Comment from David Karoly http://www.smh.com.au/environment/fates-conspire-to-concoct-a-recipe-for-disaster-20110111-19mp7.html

Forget Climate Taxes –Climate always Changes, and Man must Adapt: Viv Forbes

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THE Carbon Sense Coalition today accused Western Governments of massive waste of community savings on frivolous climate “research” and alternative energy toys while neglecting the infrastructure needed to maintain sustainable societies in the face of an unknown climate future.

The Chairman of Carbon Sense, Mr Viv Forbes, said that none of the massive government climate spending has produced anything of long term use to the people paying their bills.

“The US government spends over two thousand million dollars  per year on “climate research” but the recipients were completely unable to forecast the frigid winter they are now suffering. That money would be better spent on snow ploughs and highway improvements.

“Australian governments are spending at least eight hundred million dollars per year on “climate research”, but were unable to forecast the massive floods now affecting much of Australia. That money would have been better spent on water storage and flood-proofing roads, bridges and airports.

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UK Met Office: National Joke

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First it was a national joke. Then its professional failings became a national disaster. Now, the dishonesty of its attempts to fight off a barrage of criticism has become a real national scandal. I am talking yet again of that sad organisation the UK Met Office, as it now defends its bizarre record with claims as embarrassingly absurd as any which can ever have been made by highly-paid government officials.  Read more here.

Global Weather Disasters: Christopher Monckton responds to Michael Steketee

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According to journalist Michael Steketee writing in The Australian the news is not promising and neither is the data:  Climate change is a reality and we can blame the recent deluge in Queensland and rising temperatures on it.

Looking at the same data, particularly the rainfall data, I’ve come to a completely different conclusion. 

Christopher Monckton has gone to the trouble of immediately writing a detailed response to Mr Steketee…

Read the article by Mr Steketee for an appreciation of what it is to be a true believer: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/global-weather-disasters-a-sign-the-heat-is-on/story-e6frg6zo-1225983256858

Read the complete response by Mr Monckton here, for some perspective:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/2010_warmest_on_record.pdf

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