Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

Blame Drought on the Sun: Malcolm Hill

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Dear Jennifer,

Here at ABC News Online, in an article titled ‘Study shows more severe droughts ahead for Australia’, is another example why there are so many cynics/sceptics about Anthropogenic Global Warming [1].

On the one hand the alarmists bang on about the fact that we are the cause of the increase in temperature over the last 100years, and if anyone raises questions about the role of the sun they get jumped on.

But now the academics are saying that the sun will affect our future prospects of drought or no, because they have a connection between sunspots and SOI and our weather.

Here is a delicious concept of one bunch of alarmists, with their “we are doomed because of drought caused by the sun”, actually mucking up the argument of “we are doomed because it is Co2, and BTW the sun is not involved at all”.

It would seem that the alarmists have some explaining to do.

Cheers,
Malcolm Hill
Littlehampton (where it is very cold and wet).
Australia

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[1] ABC Online: Study shows more severe droughts ahead for Australia.
New research into the sun suggests eastern Australia could face more severe droughts over the next 500 years.
Last Update: Wednesday, July 12, 2006. 1:36pm (AEST), http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200607/s1684681.htm
A study at the University of New England in New South Wales has shown a link between solar cycles and rainfall patterns, which can be used in conjunction with the southern oscillation index to more accurately predict droughts.
Associate Professor Robert Baker says …

Did It Really Get That Cold in Stanthorpe?

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A couple of hours drive west from my home in Brisbane, is a place called Stanthorpe up on the Great Dividing Range. The town has an abattoir and according to its operator John Allen, as reported by James Nason at Farm Online, it closed on Monday because temperatures dropped to -20 C and broke water pipes [1].

I didn’t think it got that cold in Queensland! Can we believe John Allen?

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[1] Breaking Rural News : LIVESTOCK, Meatworks freezes as mercury hits -20c in Stanthrope, Qld
By JAMES NASON – Australia, Wednesday, 12 July 2006, http://www.farmonline.com.au/news_daily.asp?ag_id=35703

It’s Been Unusually Cold & Dry In Australia

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Last year it was hot in Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology cried implicated ‘global warming’ [1] .

This year it’s cold and the Bureau of Meteorology is also crying implicating ‘global warming’ [2].

This is how the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper interpreted what Grant Beard from the Bureau of Meteorology had to say:

“AUSTRALIA is in the grip of a nationwide cold snap – and paradoxically, it could be another result of global warming.

Last summer was the hottest on record. But last month many parts of Australia reported record or near-record cold nights. The average minimum temperature was 1.69 degrees below the long-term average, making it the second-coldest June since 1950.”

A reader of this blog John McLean recently emailed me:

The [Australian] April average mean temperature was the 2nd coldest since 1961, surpassed only by 1974 (5th coldest since 1950), The May average mean temperature was 4th coldest since 1961, surpassed by 1968, 2000 and 1979 (7th coldest since 1970), The June average mean temperature was 3rd coldest since 1961, surpassed by 1982 and 1971 (5th coldest since 1950).”

And here’s more comment emailed from another reader of this blog:

“June has been drier than usual in South Australia with some parts of the state experiencing the lowest rainfall on record. …Adelaide has had its third-driest June on record.

The latest figures collated by the Bureau of Meteorology show Tasmania has recorded one of the driest months of June ever. … “Launceston Airport in particular has record its lowest rainfall total for June on record,” he said.

“Just 24 hours after its coldest day on record, Perth has recorded its driest start to winter. Perth has not recorded one drop of rain in the past 18 days, making it the driest start to winter since records began in the 1880s.

…”It’s also the driest start to the year to date in history as well,” he said.”

But hey, its raining in India:

“Mumbai commuters wade knee-deep as monsoon rains lash city. Commuters in India’s financial hub Mumbai waded knee-deep through water to reach their offices as torrential monsoon rains disrupted rail and air links and forced schools to close.

Municipal workers used shovels to clear clogged drains in the western city of 18 million people that has been pounded by heavy wind and rain since late Saturday.

“More than 40 domestic flights were cancelled and another 10 had to be diverted to other destinations,” a Government official said in New Delhi.

…The rains, which advance across the country from the southern tip, have stirred memories in Mumbai of last July when more than 400 people were killed by flash floods in the city.”

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[1] Click here for my blog post entitled ‘Last year: hottest on record’.
[2] Click here for the Sydney Morning Herald piece titled ‘Cold Spell’s Weird Cause’, 4th July.

This blog post was modified at about 5.30pm on 6th July following emails from several readers. As Dennis suggested in a comment earlier today, I was having some “fun” in the original post and at the expense of the Bureau of Meteorology.

Europe Cheats on Kyoto

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Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are thought to be responsible for the elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide that are thought to be driving global warming. The Kyoto Protocol has been considered an important first step in reducing emissions with European nations agreeing to cap emissions under a trading scheme that kicked off in January last year.

But with Germany wanting to exempt coal (!) and the United Kingdom probably emitting about 92 percent more methane than it declares on top of the price tumble of late April, Kyoto doesn’t seem to be working.

This is how the Herald Tribune in a piece titled ‘Germany to Reduce Carbon Curbs’ reports Germany’s intentions to exempt coal:

“The conservative leader, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and her Social Democratic coalition partners agreed to cut the emissions limit by nearly 3.4 percent, but at the same time the cabinet has given an exemption to all new power plants, including coal, one of the worst industrial pollutants.

By allowing the power industry to opt out until 2022 before joining a program in which companies are given permits for emitting up to a certain amount of carbon dioxide and giving the permits free of charge, critics said the Merkel government was undermining EU efforts to combat climate change.”

Surely whoever is setting the rules for carbon trading in Europe won’t let the German’s get away with this?

A couple of weeks ago there was an article in New Scientist title ‘Kyoto promises are nothing but hot air’ in which Fred Pearce explained how Britain was not being honest with its emissions accounting:

“Under Kyoto, each government calculates how much carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide its country emits by adding together estimated emissions from individual sources. These so-called “bottom-up” estimates have long been accepted by atmospheric scientists, even though they have never been independently audited.

Now two teams that have monitored concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere say they have convincing evidence that the figures reported by many countries are wrong, especially for methane. Among the worst offenders are the UK, which may be emitting 92 per cent more methane than it declares under the Kyoto protocol, and France, which may be emitting 47 per cent more.”

It would seem the UK and Germany are treating Kyoto as something of a game in which it is OK to bend the rules and even cheat a bit?

But there are implications and not only for the environment. Robert Watts explained in an article title ‘Carbon Trading Leaves a Nasty Smell’ in the UK Telegraph last Sunday that Kyoto is costing hospitals:

“Open Europe’s report highlights the little-known fact that almost 150 schools, universities, military bases and even some prisons have also been obliged to sign up to the [carbon trading] scheme because they have a power station or boiler with a capacity of 20MW or more.

Whereas most private sector organisations have surpluses [of carbon credits], the opposite is true of organisations in the public sector. As a result, many hospitals, universities and army bases have been forced to buy carbon credits from businesses to meet their allocation targets.

Our tables show that, while some companies are making millions of pounds, a huge amount of taxpayers’ money is being spent buying carbon credits from the private sector. Open Europe estimates that this astonishing situation will cost the NHS [National Health System] about £1.3m a year between 2005 and 2008.”

While Kyoto hasn’t delivered much for hospitals or the environment in Europe, according to ABC Online Greenpeace is trying to force the concepts on South Australia and New South Wales.

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This is the second blog piece in which I have suggested Kyoto is turning into a game for cheats, click here for the piece written a month or so ago.

SourceWatch Needs Watching

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SourceWatch gives the impression it’s an honest organisation keeping an eye on individuals funded by industry involved in public relations and that “Unlike some other wikis, SourceWatch has a policy of strict referencing, and is overseen by a paid editor”.

It begins its entry about me, Jennifer Marohasy, by stating that:

“Dr Jennifer Marohasy is the Director of the Environment Unit at right-wing Australian think tank the Institute of Public Affairs. She is a climate change skeptic, denying that climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions.”

No, I’m just not sure that greenhouse gas emissions are the principal drivers of the current warming.

Sourcewatch goes on to use the following quotes from me to support the above proposition:

“DR JENNIFER MAROHASY: It’s ambiguous. It’s not clear that climate change is being driven by carbon dioxide levels. But let’s move beyond that argument and let’s start talking about how we can adapt to what will be a different climate in the future.” …

“DR JENNIFER MAROHASY: I actually think that it’s good if we can get beyond this debate of whether increase in carbon dioxide levels are driving more extreme climate events. I think that we need to move beyond that and accept and recognise that whether or not we can reduce carbon dioxide levels, there will be climate change.”

From the last quote it seem pretty clear that I believe there will be climate change. Yet they’ve categorized me as a climate change skeptic?

Interestingly they can’t get the link to my blog correct, this is the URL they use https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/Jennifer .

The link to my much quoted monograph titled ‘Myth & The Murray’ is also wrong. Why would they use the following URL
http://www.ipa.org.au/Speechesandsubmssns/jmwarrenspch.html ?

I’ve given a lot of talks over my career including to environment groups, but interesting they have chosen to highlight the only one ever sponsored by the United States Government and that was in about 1997 which is nearly 10 years ago.

I guess they are trying to give the impression that I’m a right wing propagandist?

Kyoto Won’t Help Poor People Much: Bjorn Lomborg

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It is often claimed by environmentalists that ‘stopping climate change’ is an obligation the world’s so-called rich and developed nations have to the poorer developing nations.

Thus the Kyoto protocol is all about ‘developed nations’ reducing carbon emissions, while countries like China and India are exempt.

If the Kyoto Protocol was really about the environment, then surely everyone would be expected to reduced emissions, particularly the really big emitters like China and India.

Yet according to Bjorn Lomborg, the Copenhagen Consensus, and Ambassadors from the United Nations, combating climate change through the Kyoto Protocol is a poor investment for humanity.

Lomborg begins a recent opinion piece in The Observer titled ‘Climate Change Can Wait, World Health Can’t’ by making the point that combating climate change through the Kyoto Protocol has a social value of less than a dollar for each dollar spent.

He goes on to repeat the findings from the Copenhagen Consensus that:

“The economists found that spending $27bn on an HIV/Aids prevention programme would be the best possible investment for humanity. It would save more than 28 million lives within six years and have massive flow-on effects, including increased productivity.

Providing micronutrient-rich dietary supplements to the malnourished was their second-highest priority. More than half the world suffers from deficiencies of iron, iodine, zinc or vitamin A, so cheap solutions such as nutrient fortification have an exceptionally high ratio of benefits to costs.

Third on the list was trade liberalisation. Although this would require politically difficult decisions, it would be remarkably cheap and would benefit the entire world, not least the developing world. A staggering GDP increase of $2,400bn annually would accrue equally to developed and developing countries with free trade.”

I understand that neither the European Union nor the United States are showing any real commitment to trade liberalisation at this current final Doha Round of World Trade Organisation negotiations in Geneva.