Climate & Climate Change

The UK has two long temperature series. The Central England Temperature series is the world’s longest series; the monthly mean begins in 1659, in the depths of the Little Ice Age. The series represents a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Bristol, Lancashire and London. The Met Office predicted 2007 would be a record, beating the previous annual mean record of 10.82C set in 2006. In fact, the mean for 2007 was 10.48C, the same as 2004 and 1959, but lower than 1949, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003. The Met Office are being more cautious with their 2008 prediction, saying it will most likely be in the top 10 of recorded temperatures.

Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland is home to a temperature series begining in 1795. In contrast to the CET, 2007 was a record year:

2007 Warmest Year on Record at Armagh

Meteorological measurements taken at the Armagh Observatory show that, despite a relatively poor summer, 2007 continued the warming trend seen in recent years. With an average temperature of 10.6 degrees Celsius, 2007 ranks as the hottest year on record, beating the previous record, 2006, by 0.15 degrees. Six of the warmest years at Armagh in the last 212 years have occurred in the last decade.

Last year’s average temperature was 10.6 degrees Celsius. This is to be compared with the 30-year average (1961-1990) of 9.24 degrees, itself nearly 0.2 degrees warmer than the average of 9.05 degrees since daily temperature measurements began at Armagh in 1795. Over approximately the last thirty years, the mean annual temperature at Armagh has increased at an average rate of 0.06 degrees per year, mirroring the warming trend seen from around 1920 to 1950.

A number of other temperature records emerge from the 2007 observations. The third coolest June day on record occurred on 15th June 2007. But it was the warmest April on record (mean monthly temperature 11.2 degrees) and a warmer spring than average. November 2007 was the fourth mildest on record, with a mean monthly temperature of 8.8 degrees.

There is also an interesting published paper from Armagh entitled ‘TRENDS AND CYCLES IN LONG IRISH METEOROLOGICAL SERIES’

Armagh Observatory scientific publications and reprints are here.

I may revisit both temperature series as 2008 progresses, and at the end of 2008.

With the end of the year, and all the global warming hype, I’ve been trying to understand how hot 2007 really was globally and also the direction in which temperatures are now trending considering the satellite and near surface measurements at the NOAA and Hadley websites respectively. Of course raw numbers, graphed and ungraphed, can give a different impression depending on your starting point – be that 1979 when satellite data was first collected, 1900 when surface temperatures were already being collected, or 1998 the hottest year so far.

Nevertheless, the various data sets do suggest that globally 1998 is still far and away the hottest and that temperatures have been stable or in decline since then. Also given 1998 was so hot, and only ten years ago, and that increases and decreases in temperature tend to be incremental it is not surprising that last year can be described as the sixth or seventh warmest even if the trend is one of cooling. But is it?

Anyway, I was surprised, but also interested, to see the analysis by Lubos Motl at this blog (http://motls.blogspot.com ). He’s a physicist and has been looking at the same data sets as I have over the last few days but coming to much more interesting and definitive conclusions including that the linear trend for the satellite data for the 1998 -2007 interval is -0.48C and that December 2007 was cooler than the average December since 1979.

Read the complete blog post here: http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/01/2007-warmest-year-on-record-coldest-in.html

[from http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/01/2007-warmest-year-on-record-coldest-in.html showing global cooling over the short interval 2005-2007]

A new paper has been published in Science, 3rd January, that uses the words ‘natural variability,’ the abstract copied below is self explanatory:

The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat Content Change in the North Atlantic

M. Susan Lozier 1, Susan Leadbetter 2, Richard G. Williams 2, Vassil Roussenov 2, Mark S. C. Reed 1, Nathan J. Moore 3

1 Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
2 Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Liverpool University, Liverpool, L69 3GP U.K.
3 Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA; Current affiliation: Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823 USA.

Abstract:

The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past fifty years is equivalent to a basin-wide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 ±0.05 Wm-2. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: though the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (±4 Wm-2) much larger than the basin-wide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm, since strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.

At the beginning of each year the Australian Bureau of Meteorology publishes an ‘Annual Climate Statement’ with a summary of rainfall and temperatures for the previous year. The statement for 2007 includes the following brief overview:

* Australian annual mean temperature for 2007 was 6th warmest on record (0.67°C above normal).

* Australian annual mean maximum temperature for 2007 was 0.73°C above normal and annual mean minimum temperature 0.61°C above normal.

* Highest on record annual mean and maximum temperatures across much of the south.

* Warmest year on record for Murray Darling Basin, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.

* Australian annual mean rainfall slightly more than average (25 mm above normal).

* Average to above average annual rainfall across northern and central Australia, average to below average annual rainfall in the southwest, mixed results in the remainder.

* Long-term droughts persist in the far southwest and southeast.

You can read the full report here: http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20080103.shtml

[I have a piece in the latest IPA Review entiled ‘Cyclones, rainfall and temperatures: Does Australia have a climate crisis?’. It’s not available online yet – but for $55 pa you can subsubcribe to the magazine.]

The man-made global warming fear machine continues to collapse scientifically with new blockbuster peer-reviewed studies.

Climate Fears Debunked! – Arctic Warming Naturally Caused – Russian scientist urges ‘stock up on fur coats’ to face upcoming global cooling

January 3, 2008 – Round Up

1) Another new peer-reviewed study debunks man-made climate claims: see: Study finds natural causes for recent Arctic warming

Excerpt: A new study’s found a natural cause may account for much of the recent dramatic thawing of the Arctic region in addition to man-made global warming. New research published in the journal Nature indicates a natural and cyclical increase in the amount of energy in the atmosphere that moves from south to north around the Arctic Circle .

http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/01/03/Study_finds_natural_causes_for_recent_Arctic_warming

Note: This studies follows two other peer-reviewed studies on the Arctic in 2007: 1) A NASA study published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters on October 4, 2007, found “unusual winds” in the Arctic blew “older thicker” ice to warmer southern waters. (LINK) & 2) A November 2007 peer-reviewed study conducted by a team of NASA and university experts found cyclical changes in ocean currents impacting the Arctic . (LINK) – 3) Also for a detailed fact sheet debunking Greenland (cooled since 1940’s), Antarctica (ice growing to record levels in 2007) and the North Pole’s ice conditions, please see: (LINK)

2) Russian scientist urges ‘stock up on fur coats’ to face upcoming global cooling

(By Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, (also translated to spell Sorochtin) Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute. – Also featured in new U.S. Senate Report on over 400 scientists who dispute man-made global warming claims. See: http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

Link to Full Article by Sorochtin below:

Excerpt: Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world. Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases. The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer. This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.

A cold spell soon to replace global warming:

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080103/94768732.html

Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

Read the rest of the article here.