Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Climate & Climate Change

Climate Charlie

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Below is a photograph of Prince Charles’s ‘eco-friendly’ mode of travel. Charles and Camilla flew to Trinidad to board the private yacht Leander in order to cruise to Tobago, St Lucia, Montserrat and Jamaica, rather than fly, in order to reduce their ‘carbon footprint.’ Personally, I’d have thought it would be more eco-friendly not to go at all, but that’s just me being silly. The normal charter rate is £280,000 per week, but lucky UK taxpayers are assured that there will be an undisclosed discount.

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In St Anne’s, Trinidad, on Wednesday 5th March, the Prince gave a speech about climate change at a dinner hosted by the president.

Prince Charles is reported to have said:

Excerpt: “Unfathomably however, there still seem to be some climate skeptics, those who view the case of rapid action to counter climate change is overstated or indeed completely invented,” he added.

“If I may speak plainly among friends, this is sheer madness. The scientific facts are as plain as they are alarming. Worryingly in the last few months we have learnt that the North Polar ice cap is melting so fast that some scientists are predicting that in seven years it will completely disappear in summer.”

Here are some famous quotes from Prince Charles:

“To get the best results, you must talk to your vegetables.”

“I just come and talk to the plants, really-very important to talk to them, they respond I find.”

“Science has tried to assume a monopoly – or, rather, a tyranny – over our understanding of the world around us … We are only now beginning to understand the disastrous results of this outlook.”
Prince Charles
Speech titled ‘Sacred in the Modern World’, July 1996

Finally, a picture is worth a thousand words:

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Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

New Theory of the Greenhouse Effect

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NASA linked Ferenc Miskolczi is a Hungarian atmospheric physicist who has published a new derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect which suggests “runaway warming” is impossible. According to Miskolczi, NASA refused to publish the results so he resigned in protest.

Fellow Hungarian scientist Miklós Zágoni was a strong supporter of the Kyoto Protocol until he read Miskolczi’s theory. Now he is climate alarmist turned climate realist.

The 40-page paper is entitled: ‘Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres’

The Abstract reads:

In this work the theoretical relationship between the clear-sky outgoing infrared radiation and the surface upward radiative flux is explored by using a realistic finite semi-transparent atmospheric model. We show that the fundamental relationship between the optical depth and source function contains real boundary condition parameters. We also show that the radiative equilibrium is controlled by a special atmospheric transfer function and requires the continuity of the temperature at the ground surface. The long standing misinterpretation of the classic semi-infinite Eddington solution has been resolved. Compared to the semi-infinite model the finite semi-transparent model predicts much smaller ground surface temperature and a larger surface air temperature. The new equation proves that the classic solution significantly overestimates the sensitivity of greenhouse forcing to optical depth perturbations. In Earth-type atmospheres sustained planetary greenhouse effect with a stable ground surface temperature can only exist at a particular planetary average flux optical depth of 1.841 . Simulation results show that the Earth maintains a controlled greenhouse effect with a global average optical depth kept close to this critical value. The broadband radiative transfer in the clear Martian atmosphere follows different principle resulting in different analytical relationships among the fluxes. Applying the virial theorem to the radiative balance equation we present a coherent picture of the planetary greenhouse effect.

Key-words: greenhouse effect, radiative equilibrium.

Climate Change Conference, New York – Day 3, In Review

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I’ve already reported on the standing ovation given to Vaclav Klaus following his speech at breakfast on day 3 of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

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President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus addressing delegates at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

There were two keynote speakers at each meal.

William Gray spoke after President Klaus and to the title ‘Oceans, Not Carbon Dioxide are Driving Climate’ and in particular about the circulation of water from the North Pole by way of the “Great Ocean Conveyor Belt” – Thermohaline Circulation (THC) – and the importance of the highly saline Atlantic Ocean.

Dr Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years including studies of broad-scale cumulus interactions, processes associated with tropical cyclone structure, development and movement. And I will admit to not understanding all of his presentation, so I am going to say no more than that while acknowledging that carbon dioxide, the sun, land use change and water vapour all impact climate, Dr Gray went on to explain that it is the oceans that really drive climate and that the associated changes in energy fields and atmospheric moisture are too complex and chaotic to integrate into climate models.

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A key slide from Dr Gray’s presentation.

After breakfast I headed to what is known at the Marriott Marquis as the Skylobby on the 16th floor to hear Marc Morano, Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox. The session on science and politics was introduced with reference to the so called scientific consensus and the suggestion was made that it is really a political consensus, not a scientific consensus.

Michael Fox is a nuclear specialist and he drew similarities in his speech between the current campaign against fossil fuels and the long standing campaign against nuclear energy. He suggested both reflected ‘illiteracy’ in the general public when it comes to science, maths and energy and spoke at length about environmental activists being against nuclear and hydro – yet these are the only real alternative to fossil fuels. His comments about activists being well organised and using regulation, litigation and/or taxation to attack the nuclear industry were interesting.

He finished with a quote from a Washington Congressman that “in my district it is political suicide to be rational on nuclear issues.”

I am familiar with the work of second speaker Marlo Lewis and in particular his comprehensive critique of Al Gore’s book ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ which you can find here: http://www.cei.org/pages/ait_response-book.cfm . But I had trouble following much of his speech at the conference because it was about the complexity and history of US environmental legislation the implications of which he was hopefully exaggerating because is it really possible that litigation could close down the US economy. Dr Marlo spoke about ‘ethanolism’ as an addiction which has swept over Washington and went into great detail about National Ambient Air Quality Standards and how government legislators could set the standard for carbon dioxide lower than current levels!

Marc Morano followed Marlo Lewis and I have already posted on his presentation here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002818.html . I will just add that Mr Morano also said polar bear numbers are at historical highs yet it is likely they will be listed as endangered.

I only caught part of the last session in the Skylobby which included some discussion on the Christian lobby and their links with the AGW lobby. The size of this constituency in the US runs into the tens of millions.

Instead of hearing more speakers I ended up joining UK resident and social anthropologist Benny Peiser and famous economist David Henderson for a pot of tea and some discussion on Level 8. Of course the pot was just hot water but we put the teabags into the pot rather than our cups – as the Americans get this so wrong.

Lunch was delicious; a delicate green rocket salad followed by a large piece of salmon on a wholesome risotto. The speakers were also great. Dr Roy Spencer is a principle research scientists for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the US Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and his presentation was entitled ‘Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity’. While at the morning session William Gray suggested oceans drive climate, Dr Spencer’s key point was that “if there is one organising principle it is precipitation systems” (rainfall). He explained his interest in temperature anomalies since the launch of the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002 and the detailed data this satellite collects including on intraseasonal oscillations in troposhere temperatures. I was fascinated to hear how the satellite data has helped understanding of how clouds change as they evolve and the strong negative cloud feedback during troposphere warming. This is not how the climate models behave – they suggest a strong positive feedback. Dr Spencer also explained how when his findings were published last August there was no media interest to his astonishment given then importance of the findings.

In an attempt to move with the opinion within his discipline that if you can’t “put it in numbers in a climate model all you are doing is hand waving”, Dr Spencer developed his own climate model, what he described as the ‘world’s smallest climate model’.

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Slide from Roy Spencer’s presentation.

What the model showed was that the real climate system (as opposed to the virtual modelled system) is much less sensitive than most modellers assume.

Dr Spencer’s talk was perhaps the most important at the conference and his conclusions including:
1. Recent research supports reduced climate sensitivity including that tropical intra-seasonal osciallations show strong negative feedback and observational estimates of feedback are likely bias due to neglect of natural variability, and
2. The accommodation of these results by climate modellers in their cloud parameterization could greatly reduce climate model projections of future warming.

The last speaker for the conference was ABC News correspondent John Stossel. He gave an interesting talk on ‘scares’ and how and why the media reports them.

In his closing remarks for the conference Heartland Institute President and CEO Joseph Blast drew parallels between our conference and the small group of economists who gathered at Mont Pelerin, near Montreux, Switzerland, to discuss the state and the possible fate of classic liberalism in 1947. Mr Blast suggested that our gathering in New York will hopefully mark the beginnings of an intellectual movement that will help turn-around the politics of climate change.

I walked and napped in the afternoon before meeting some conference delegates – Bob Ferguson and Carol Ferguson, Bob Carter and Ann Carter, blogger Joe De’Aleo and Astrophysicist Willie Soon – for a light dinner and a glass of wine (or two) in the hotel.

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Conference delegates Bob Carter, Joe De Áleo and Willie Soon not in a spaceship, but rather in a lounge at the New York Marriott Marquis.

I would like to again thank conference organisers and sponsors The Heartland Institute and also the people of New York who have helped make my short say here truly memorable.

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You can read my perspective on Day 1 of the conference here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and Day 2 here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html

Some media from the conference is here:

Bob Carter on the Global Warming Conference
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/6724/

Inconvenient Thermometers
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6727/?ck=1

Glenn talks with Lord Monckton
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6783/?ck=1

Roger Pielke Jr Interviewed by The Breakthrough Blog

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There is a very interesting interview with Roger Pielke Jr over at the Breakthrough Blog:

The following is an interview with Breakthrough Senior Fellow Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger has done pioneering work on proper role of scientists and experts in society. He is an expert on the societal impacts of natural hazards, particularly hurricanes and floods, and a strong advocate of adaptation as a vital part of climate change policy. He is a guest contributer to the Breakthrough blog, and writes his own blog, Prometheus.

Read the full interview here.

Breakfast with Czech President Vaclav Klaus

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The 500-strong contingent of skeptics currently in New York for The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change were up early for a second day. Breakfast was again at 7am and the first speaker was given a standing ovation – a man who had travelled all the way from Prague, the President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus.

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Vaclav Klaus is a well know global warming skeptic and was re-elected President just two weeks ago.

In his speech President Klaus talked about the “robust relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth” and went on to suggest there are three types of countries in Europe based on their emissions profile and level of economic growth. He described the less developed countries of the European Union (EU), including Greece, has trying to “catch-up” since the signing of Kyoto and in the process increasing their level of carbon emissions by 53 percent. The post communist countries were described as seeing their heavy industry disappear and experiencing a decline in GDP and a drop in emissions of 33 percent Then there are countries like France and Germany which have seen their emissions increase on average by 4 percent.

The President said that “the dream” to reduce emissions in the EU by 70 percent in the next 30 years could only be achieved if there was a dramatic de-industrialization of Europe (likely associated with a dramatic drop in GDP), a dramatic drop in population or a technological revolution.

President Klaus outlined previous attempts in Europe, for example the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, to impose radical economic change and the “innocence of climate alarmists” to currently mastermind society including their belief in their own omnipotence.

The President concluded with comment that “uncompromising lessons about the collapse of communism” need to be re-learnt:

“We have to restart the discussion about the very nature of government and about the relationship between the individual and society. Now it concerns the whole of mankind, not just the citizens of one particular country. To discuss this means to look at the canonically structured theoretical discussions about socialism (or communism) and to learn the uncompromising lessons from the inevitable collapse of communism 18 years ago. It is not about climatology. It is about freedom. This should be the main message from our conference.”

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Standing ovation, including from London-based Kendra Okonski and former advisor to Russian President Putin Andrei Illarionov . New York based Statistician William M Briggs is the tall guy in the background to the immediate left of Dr Illarionov.

Thanks again to conference sponsor’s The Heartland Institute .

More on day 3 soon.

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You can read a perspective on day 3 of the conference from William M Briggs here: http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/03/04/heartland-conference-day-3-and-wrap-up/.

You can read my perspective on day 1 of the conference here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and day 2 here https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html .