Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Adapting to Climate Change

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The question that I asked last Thursday (18th August) – might it get wetter as it gets warmer – was not answered.

There was comment made that this question can’t be answered. There was comment made that the question is irrelevant.

Phil Done has said he will do a summary of that long thread as it progressed the climate change argument/our understanding of the science of climate change, in particular by listing points of agreement. I look forward to this summary.

But I am also interested in moving beyond the detail of the argument about the science and the impact/potential impact of greenhouse gases on global temperatures and consider how we might/can adapt to climate change.

As part of the thread of the 18th August David Brewer provided a link to a talk given by Brian Tucker in October 1986 on the ABC radio program “Ockham’s Razor”. Tucker said:

“And finally there is an assumption that the total cost to society of such a drastic reduction of Greenhouse gas emissions, including social as well as economic consequences, will be less than the cost of adapting to any change in climate, for if it is not, then adaptation is the major sensible policy.”

As I see it adaptation must be a component of any policy, anyway.

Yet there seems to be so little real discussion about adaptation – including how much easier it might be for the developed as opposed to developing world to adapt.

What are the issues? What are the risks? How might we adapt?

Quolls for Sale Instead of Cats?

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I have been in Melbourne over the weekend.

I had the most magnificent meal of Kangaroo Saturday night over-looking the Yarra River. The choice of dish was perhaps influenced by the book I am reading. Michael Archer (Dean of the Faculty of Science at the University of NSW) and Bob Beale (journalist) in ‘Going Native’write:

“Why must kangaroo meat – tasty, free range, low-fat, low-cholesterol, disease-free, high protein and environmentally superior as it is – still battle for a respected place at the dinner table?”

Archer and Beale complain that Portugal is the world’s largest producer of Eucalyptus oil (pg12). And that the US was the first nation to domesticate the unique tasty and nourishing Australian native macadamia nut.

Their general thesis that we should do more with our native plants and animals is spot-on.

Archer tells how he once had a pet quoll and suggests that these native animals would make better pets for Australians than cats (pg 267).

The problem is that environmental organizations are generally against the ‘exploitation’ of our native fauna and flora for commercial gain including as pets.

‘Going Native’was published last year by Hodder. I bought my copy for $35 from Dymocks.

Wollemi Elephants

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Where would you plant a Wollemi pine?

According to The Australian, fewer than 300 saplings of the relic giant tree which can live for 1,000 years are to be auctioned by Sotheby’s soon.

But why stop at a 90 million year old pine for the farm or acre block?

What about an elephant?

A couple of days ago The Australian gave a fair amount of space to the following story about introducing African wildlife into North America based on a Reuters story, based on an article in science magazine Nature:

Reintroducing the modern relatives of the Late Pleistocene losers to North America could spark fresh interest in conservation, contribute to biodiversity and begin to put right some of the wrongs caused by human activities.

“Establishing Asian asses and Przewalski’s horse in North America might help prevent the extinction of these endangered species and would restore equid species to their evolutionary homeland,” the scientists wrote.

They proposed a second phase that would include reintroducing African cheetahs, lions and Asian and African elephants to large private parks.

“Free-roaming, managed cheetahs in the southwestern United States could save the fastest carnivore from extinction, restore what must have been strong interactions with pronghorn and facilitate ecotourism as an alternative for ranchers.

“Managed elephant populations could similarly benefit ranchers through grassland maintenance and ecotourism,” they wrote, adding that reintroducing lions would represent the pinnacle of the Pleistocene re-wilding of North America.

They admitted the plan would be controversial but said it was a far better option than simply accepting the terminal decline of some of the world’s most impressive species due to human encroachment and global warming. end of quote.

As someone who spent years working for a research station dedicated to the control of weeds and feral animals – the mind boggles.

Perhaps elephants would do a good job of controlling the African exotic prickly acacia (Acacia nilotica) on the Mitchell grass downs of NW Queensland � I have seen first hand how damaging elephants can be to acacias in Africa.

But hey, America is going to save Africa’s wildlife in America?

Telstra was Meant to Save the Environment

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With all the talk about Barnaby Joyce and the sale of Telstra I am reminded of the Natural Heritage Trust – established from the sale of T1. And this is what John Anderson said in the Australian Parliament on 19th June 1996:

This Bill will establish the Trust and provide for it to be known as the “Natural Heritage Trust of Australia Reserve”. The initial capital of one billion dollars to be invested in the Trust will come from the proceeds of the partial sale of Telstra.

In effect, the transfer of funds from the partial sale of Telstra into the Natural Heritage Trust represents a transfer from investment in a telecommunications company to an investment in natural capital. Maintaining and restoring this natural capital is an investment in the well-being of future generations of Australians.

And what has the Natural Heritage Trust achieved for the Australian environment?

Could it Get Wetter, as It Gets Warmer?

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CSIRO climate change modeling has generally concluded that as it gets warmer, it is going to get drier.

I will give two examples:

1. CSIRO News Flash on Monday 15 August 2005 titled ‘Natural change, greenhouse effect influence WA rainfall’ with the text “Continued rainfall decreases in the south west of Western Australia are most likely a combination of natural variability and the enhanced greenhouse effect”. Read more at:
http://www.csiro.au/page.asp?type=mediaRelease&id=145WArainfall

2. CSIRO modeling for Queensland predicts that annual rainfall may decline by as much as 13 per cent by 2030 compared to conditions in the 1990s. By 2070 the decline may be as much as 40 per cent compared to conditions in the 1990s. For more detail see my earlier blog post at: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/000735.html .

But I thought that in past times as the earth got warmer it got wetter?

3. For example, a recent article in ABC Online began:

You would not expect to find a rainforest in what is now one of the hottest and driest places on the east coast of Queensland.
Ancient fossil deposits found in caves near Rockhampton in central Queensland have revealed the area was once a tropical rainforest, wiped out by climate change.

4. According to the IPCC there has been a 0.6C warming over the last 150 odd years and I have interpreted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) summaries to show that it has generally got wetter over the last 100 years in Australia.

But I have been told:

Jen, The comment on Australia getting wetter – well you shouldn’t really quote national numbers. The centre to north-west may be getting wetter. But everywhere people or major agriculture is located doesn’t show this. We have a drier SW WA and east coast drying trend. See ALL the various period maps at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi . We also have had few La Ninas since 1976, more El Ninos and back-to-back “unusual” El Ninos. Few coast crossing cyclones.

So we can quote national figures for everything except rainfall? Because overall it has got wetter, see http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi?variable=rain&region=aus&season=0112 ?

5. I checked the National Greenhouse Office and they say :

Climate modelling has predicted that on average Australia will get wetter as temperatures rise, especially in summer. Tropical cyclones and floods may become more common, and will happen in places that haven’t had them before. However, places such as Tasmania and parts of Western Australia will actually get less rainfall than before, and might even have droughts.

But then they conclude: As temperatures rise and some place get less rain, droughts could happen more often.

6. I remember that the IPCC has written that with climate change, in some areas it will get wetter, in others drier, and I also remember reading that,

7. Australian climatologists have predicted that it will generally get wetter as it gets warmer.

8. I have just read Rod Fensham’s new paper in the Journal of Ecology (2005, vol 93,pgs 596-606) titled ‘Rainfall, land use and woody vegetation cover change in semi-arid Australian savanna’. The summary includes “… this pattern (changes in vegetation cover in western Queensland) is consistent with the first half of the 20th century having more intense droughts and being drier overall than the relatively wet second half”.

So could it get wetter as it gets warmer?

On Politics (Part 2)

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Following on from my post about the left thinking the right are evil and the right thinking the left are dumb …

at the Australian libertarian’s website it says:

Often libertarians are described as ‘economically right-wing’ and ‘socially left-wing’. While this isn’t a perfect explanation, it’s a helpful shortcut and one that has been used by www.self-gov.org in their ‘world’s smallest political quiz’.