Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Ethanol: Fuel of the Future?

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Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has announced a ‘National Fuel Ethanol’ program with plans to mandate ethanol blend E10 for vehicles and in this way reduce dependence on imported oil saving an estimated $1.8 billion. The ethanol will be made from sugarcane, corn, grain, sorghum, wheat and other agricultural crops, according to today’s Farm Online.

‘Fuel-injected feed fear’ was the headline on the front page of The Land newspaper on 25th August. Following the headline was a story suggesting beef lotfeeders, dairy, pig and poultry producers are expecting feed grain prices to increase as a consequence of Australia’s “fast expanding ethanol fuel lobby”. The article continued … A report by Canberra-based Centre for International Economics (CIE) puts present ethanol production (in Australia) at 130 to 140 million litres and lists 14 proposed ethanol plants, more than 80 of which would use grain as the base ingredient.

Is ethanol a “fuel of the future” as suggested by Arroyo. How will feedlots compete?

Animals Really Threatened with Extinction

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There was a story on ABC Television’s Foreign Correspondent last night (that I didn’t see) about an organization trying to save ‘near extinct’ wildlife in Cambodia’s national parks including tigers, monkeys, sun bears, deer, and elephants. According to the website, poaching for Asia’s million-dollar trade in exotic wildlife is part of the problem with wildlife traders protected by government and the military.

I was alerted to the story by Graeme McIveen, a friend who has a long standing interested in wildlife conservation. He sent me an email that included comment:

“We have involvement with a project in Iran that is close to a nature reserve for Asian cheetah – I didn’t even know there was such an animal – one estimate is a total population of around 60 of an animal that once ranged across much of Asia Minor, but no one really knows.”

And I had previously read that the Liberian Iberian lynx was the world’s most endangered cat with only 100 animals in Spain and Portugal – numbers down from about 100,000 at the turn of the 19th century.

And just a few weeks ago I read that the Australian kangaroo is facing extinction including that,

“The collapse in kangaroo numbers was inevitable once a combination of rampant exploitation and drought came together …The world’s largest wildlife massacre is being justified on the basis of so-called ‘scientific management’ programmes …”

This story does not accord with the piece at Farm Online today claiming roo numbers are up, demand for roo meat is up, there are just not enough roo shooters.

How does someone living in Japan, for example, work out whether they should donate to save the Iranian cheetah, the Cambodian sun bear or the Australian kangaroo? … while perhaps enjoying a meal of Minke whale.

The Australian Koala Foundation (AKF) has raised millions of dollars for koala conservation and even successfully campaigned to have koalas listed in the United States as an endangered species in Australia.

The political and fund-raising success of the group has been aided by its claiming that there are less than 100,000 koalas remaining, with numbers on the decline.

Yet, as I detailed in my article for the June issue of the IPA Review, by simply counting up a few of the know koala populations it is evident that there would be well over 100,000 koalas in Australia. There are about 59,000 in the mulga-lands of southwest Queensland, 25,000 in southeast Queensland, 8,200 in North Coast NSW, 27,000 on Kangaroo Island South Australia. This quick count does not include Victorian Koala populations with a Monash University researcher suggesting in 1998 that the Victorian koala population could total one million (that was before the January 2003 bushfires).

I concluded in the IPA article that the lack of information and honest reporting on Koala numbers perhaps reflects a broader issue for conservation. It is the koala as victim, the koala as a species in decline, which attracts funding, and thus power and influence for organisations like the AKF. There is no incentive to report that koala populations might be doing OK.

There really is a need for someone, or some organization, to start compiling basic statistics on icon species from the sun bear to the koala.

There might be ‘lies, damn lies and then there are statistics’ but statistics tend to lie less than newspaper headlines.

PS I have read somewhere that sun bears caught in Cambodian National Park could be sold as pets, or have their paws amputated and made into soup, and/or be kept alive in a small cage with a tube inserted into them extracting bile for traditional medicines.

Update 8.30am Thursday 8th

I have received some offline comment quering roo numbers – I probably should have provided the following link in the post:

http://www.kangaroo-industry.asn.au/morinfo/BACKGR1.HTM

There is an annual census of roo numbers in Australia with information at:

http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/trade-use/wild-harvest/kangaroo/stats.html .

I was hoping for general feedback on the problem of what to do about those who ‘cry wolf’ as this can result in real and pressing problems not being addressed. For example, we worry about koalas when there is really a crisis with African elephants? Also we worry about landclearing impacts on koalas when most mortality has been the result of feral bushfires? Also, how does one find reliable information on, for example, sun bear population numbers?

Wildflowers Follow Rain

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Much of western Queensland received winter rain this year and the last few weeks has apparently seen the country-side transformed with a spectacular display of wildflowers. ABC radio Western Queensland has put together a photo gallery at,

http://www.abc.net.au/westqld/stories/s1448489.htm .

I used to press wildflowers when I was a little girl. One of the best Christmas presents I ever received was ‘Wild Flowers of the World’ with paintings by Barbara Everard and that was for Christmas in 1975. Of course, I still have the book.

On Hurricanes, including Katrina

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Blog site ‘real climate’ has an interesting review of the relationship between hurricanes (frequency and intensity) and global warming with particular reference to Katrina.

By way of introduction:

The key connection is that between sea surface temperatures (we abbreviate this as SST) and the power of hurricanes. Without going into technical details about the dynamics and thermodynamics involved in tropical storms and hurricanes … the basic connection between the two is actually fairly simple: warm water, and the instability in the lower atmosphere that is created by it, is the energy source of hurricanes. This is why they only arise in the tropics and during the season when SSTs are highest (June to November in the tropical North Atlantic).

I particularly noted the paragraph:

It has been asserted (for example, by the NOAA National Hurricane Center) that the recent upturn in hurricane activity is due to a natural cycle, e.g. the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (“AMO”). The new results by Emanuel (Fig. 2) argue against this hypothesis being the sole explanation: the recent increase in SST (at least for September as shown in the Figure) is well outside the range of any past oscillations. Emanuel therefore concludes in his paper that “the large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented, and probably reflects the effect of global warming.” However, caution is always warranted with very new scientific results until they have been thoroughly discussed by the community and either supported or challenged by further analyses. Previous analysis of the AMO and natural oscillation modes in the Atlantic (Delworth and Mann, 2000; Kerr, 2000) suggest that the amplitude of natural SST variations averaged over the tropics is about 0.1-0.2 C, so a swing from the coldest to warmest phase could explain up to ~0.4 C warming.

I wonder what Chris Landsea, the hurricane expert who resigned from the IPCC because of politics and ‘climate change campaigning’, thinks about recent hurricanes Katrina and Denis … and also about Emanuel?

Link to the post at real climate:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181 .

Link to Chris Landsea’s letter of resignation from the IPCC:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Where’s the Market Premium for Non- GM Canola?

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After I wrote about the anti-GM lobby group the ‘Network of Concerned Farmers’ and their misinformation campaign in my column in The Land newspaper (11th August edition, pg. 24), I received letters and emails accusing me of not understanding basic marketing principles. I was told that Australian canola growers are better off because they have more market opportunities, including a potential price premium, because GM canola has been banned in Australia.

(Canada and Argentina, both big Canola producers, grow and export product from mostly GM canola varieties – varieties banned in all canola growing states in Australia.)

I was surprised that no-one contested, or seemed concerned by, my allegation in that column that the Network of Concerned Farmers is neither honest nor consistent in its rhetoric. All the correspondence was focused on perceived ‘market advantage’.

(And why is it that ‘left leaning greenies’ become so focused on ‘market advantage’ when it comes to GM issues?)

I note that Farm Online has a piece today explaining that canola prices appear likely to remain at their current depressed levels or lower, with a large Canadian crop impacting on the market.

It continues:

Currently, canola is trading at around $330/tonne port, but industry analysts are predicting a further drop, saying the Australian market is already trading above international levels.

Many farmers consider $350/t the lowest price at which canola is viable.

In Canada, weather conditions are said to be unlikely to have a negative impact from now on, with most canola already windrowed.

On top of this, industry sources suggested Canada will be looking to get rid of a large amount of last season’s carryover stock, leading to further discounts in prices.

This is bad news for Australian growers, who at the same stage last year were presented with a golden opportunity to lock in prices over $400/t on the back of weather uncertainty in the northern hemisphere.

With Canada set to be able to fill core canola markets, such as Japan and Mexico, canola marketers will be forced to make sure their product becomes cheaper in relation to rival commodities, such as soybeans.

Where is the market concern with GM? Where is the market advantage in not growing GM? Why do Australian state governments continue with their bans on the growing of GM food crops?

It is not only a question of choice, but the environmental advantages of growing GM canola are compelling, see for example, http://www.ipa.org.au/files/news_263.html.

Noongars Knew Best (Part 2)

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On 17th June I posted an essay from David Ward, WA, titled ‘Noongars Knew Best‘ about aboriginal management of the dry forests of the SW of Western Australia.

In this new post, which is a powerpoint presentation from David, four scenarios for bushfire management are explored.

The powerpoint is 850kbs and may only work if you save it first … Download file.

David emailed the powerpoint with a note welcoming feedback/comment/debate.

Interestingly ABC Online reported on Friday that the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service was planning a large scale hazard reduction burn at Berowra Valley Regional Park and in adjoining land west of Hornsby and Hornsby Heights. The four-day burn-off was aimed to “lessen the intensity of wild fires in summer”.