Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Oceans Fall Over Millions of Years

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A new paper published in Science magazine suggests that ocean the floors are getting deeper and sea levels have fallen by about 170 meters (560 ft) since the Cretaceous period 80 million years ago, due to tectonic shifts. Previous estimates were between 40 to 250 meters. On this basis of this work, a fall of 120 metres is expected over the next 80 million years, which equates to just 0.015 centimetres per century. Not much when we we consider IPCC projections of sea level rise. That said, the IPCC seems to have abandoned decadal projections in their latest report and gone for a 90-year projection, following the accuracy failures of the 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports. See the January 15th post over at Prometheus: Verification of IPCC Sea Level Rise Forecasts 1990, 1995, 2001.

The research article is entitled: ‘Long-Term Sea-Level Fluctuations Driven by Ocean Basin Dynamics’

The first paragraph reads:

Earth’s long-term sea-level history is characterized by widespread continental flooding in the Cretaceous period (145 to 65 million years ago), followed by gradual regression of inland seas. However, published estimates of the Late Cretaceous sea-level high differ by half an order of magnitude, from 40 to 250 meters above the present level. The low estimate is based on the stratigraphy of the New Jersey margin. By assimilating marine geophysical data into reconstructions of ancient ocean basins, we model a Late Cretaceous sea level that is 170 (85 to 270) meters higher than it is today. We use a mantle convection model to suggest that New Jersey subsided by 105 to 180 meters in the past 70 million years because of North America’s westward passage over the subducted Farallon plate. This mechanism reconciles New Jersey margin–based sea-level estimates with ocean basin reconstructions.

The paper is also reported by Reuters, with their usual perspective on climate change.

Queensland’s Proposed Iconic Legislation (part II)

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Contrary to the intent of the outgoing Douglas Shire Council’s resolution to not allow Council staff to participate in the process of preparing submissions to Queensland’s Draft Iconic legislation, the Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning has contracted the Planning Consultant primarily involved in developing the Douglas Shire’s Planning Scheme, to prepare a Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire.

Having previously thought that one-month public consultation for Queensland’s Draft Iconic legislation was inadequate, the six days offered this afternoon, for the Draft Iconic Values Statement, is remarkably challenging. We are advised, “Unfortunately any submissions received after 6pm on Monday the 17th March 2008, will be unable to be considered.”

Two days before this deadline, the inaugural Cairns Regional Council elections will be held, leaving the successful candidates with only one working day to respond within this window of eligibility.

One might be excused for assuming that a Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire would be a relatively simple descriptor, given that 82% of the Shire is bedded in World Heritage legislation. The adjacent Great Barrier Reef WH area ensures another binding level of iconic constraint and at a lower level, the Integrated Planning Act ensures the preservation of Good Quality Agricultural Lands.

But no; the Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire is unexpectedly more definitive, even down to the level of unsealed roads, oil palms that line the entrance to Port Douglas and the waterfront markets that are valued not only by tourists but also by local residents. It details iconic WH values, biodiversity values (including a new species of fish found in Cooper Creek), the Irrawaddy and Indo Pacific humpback dolphins, migrating birds, waders, flying fox, southern cassowary, stream-inhabiting frog species, Bennett’s tree kangaroo, estuarine crocodile and spotted quoll, among many others.

These ecological values are already protected under the various provisions of the Nature Conservation Act 1992 and World Heritage legislation, but with this new layer of Iconic legislation, it would seem that the forced amalgamations are merely a smokescreen for a de facto dissolution of local governance in the former Shire of Douglas and the expansion of bureaucracy.

Billy Goes Hunting: A Book by Matt Butler

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“The children of avid hunters routinely face questions and criticism about the hunting lifestyle they cherish. Billy Goes Hunting is the story of a young boy whose hunting beliefs have been challenged by his peers. In response to those challenges, on a trip to visit Grandfather’s farm, Billy asks the question – “Why do we hunt?” – and his Grandfather explains the many reasons behind the heritage, sport and tradition of the hunting lifestyle. Reading this book to your children will allow you as a parent to explain all of these reasons in detail and provide a great platform to discuss any other questions your children might have…

Read more about this book here: http://www.billygoeshunting.com/index.html

Read about the author Matt Butler here: http://www.billygoeshunting.com/author.html

Trials & Tribulations of Queensland’s Climate Change

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Stoney Ck.jpg

There are times, in the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest, when rainfall is so overly abundant that it would seem irresponsible not to derive electricity from hydro-generation. However, the Queensland Government’s existing policy prohibits supply between properties, so hydro-potential can only exist on a per property basis and very few have both the requisite flow rate and head.

At Cooper Creek Wilderness, water is diverted from the creek in the above photograph, through a 63 mm poly-pipe at a flow rate of 1.2 litres/sec. The diversion travels just under 1.6 km and drops 59 metres, losing 21 metres through friction. The water is released under high pressure through a nozzle onto a pelton wheel, generating 52 volts at 5.1 amps DC or around 6 kwhrs/day.

The beauty of hydro-power, is that it is constant, 24-hours per day, for as long as the creek’s flow rate exceeds the intake requirements of the hydro-plant. By contrast solar-power is intermittent and at its very best, can only derive electricity when the sun is out. In a place of abundantly high rainfall and luxuriant canopy, it is even more elusive. The reality is, Queensland’s Electricity Policy for the Daintree Area ensures more than 80% reliance upon engine generators.

In a media release last Wednesday, Queensland Premier Bligh announced two new initiatives in ‘Queensland’s fight against climate change, including a pilot program to deliver zero emission solar energy to 1,000 households in regional Queensland’.

“The Government will bulk purchase 1,000 solar power energy systems to make the green, renewable energy source a viable option for Queensland families.

“Even with the current rebates currently offered by the Federal Government, Queensland families still face an out-of-pocket expense of between $4,500-$5,000 to install a 1kW system.

“Our aim with this scheme is to drive that out-of-pocket expense down to around $1,000-$1,500, making the solar choice a much more viable one.”

Within the same media release, Queensland’s Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation, Andrew McNamara said Queensland was currently a low-user of solar power compared with other states.

“As at September last year, only 446 Queensland homes were using grid-connected solar power systems, compared with 2,045 in South Australia, 1,166 in Victoria and 1,007 in New South Wales,” Mr McNamara said.

“This initiative will take what is a boutique industry in Queensland to new heights and create a new wave of green collar jobs.”

The press release has drawn attention to another flawed aspect of existing policy, whereby the Daintree’s Renewable Power production is not available to Queensland through the grid. Queensland’s performance would certainly look healthier compared with other states if all of the renewable electricity generated in the Daintree region was not excluded.

The Premier has also announced that all relevant Cabinet proposals will now include an assessment of climate change impacts for Cabinet’s consideration.

“This means any proposals involving potential increases in greenhouse gas emissions – or projects that may be affected by climate change impacts such as sea level rise – must include an assessment of these issues for consideration by Cabinet.”

In the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest community, we are hopeful that this will draw renewed Cabinet consideration to the flawed Daintree policy and address the disgraceful emissions of the hundreds of concurrently running generators polluting both the rainforest and also the health of the sole tourism economy.

Climate Charlie

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Below is a photograph of Prince Charles’s ‘eco-friendly’ mode of travel. Charles and Camilla flew to Trinidad to board the private yacht Leander in order to cruise to Tobago, St Lucia, Montserrat and Jamaica, rather than fly, in order to reduce their ‘carbon footprint.’ Personally, I’d have thought it would be more eco-friendly not to go at all, but that’s just me being silly. The normal charter rate is £280,000 per week, but lucky UK taxpayers are assured that there will be an undisclosed discount.

leanderDM2202_468x293.jpg

In St Anne’s, Trinidad, on Wednesday 5th March, the Prince gave a speech about climate change at a dinner hosted by the president.

Prince Charles is reported to have said:

Excerpt: “Unfathomably however, there still seem to be some climate skeptics, those who view the case of rapid action to counter climate change is overstated or indeed completely invented,” he added.

“If I may speak plainly among friends, this is sheer madness. The scientific facts are as plain as they are alarming. Worryingly in the last few months we have learnt that the North Polar ice cap is melting so fast that some scientists are predicting that in seven years it will completely disappear in summer.”

Here are some famous quotes from Prince Charles:

“To get the best results, you must talk to your vegetables.”

“I just come and talk to the plants, really-very important to talk to them, they respond I find.”

“Science has tried to assume a monopoly – or, rather, a tyranny – over our understanding of the world around us … We are only now beginning to understand the disastrous results of this outlook.”
Prince Charles
Speech titled ‘Sacred in the Modern World’, July 1996

Finally, a picture is worth a thousand words:

sea ice.JPG

Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

New Theory of the Greenhouse Effect

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NASA linked Ferenc Miskolczi is a Hungarian atmospheric physicist who has published a new derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect which suggests “runaway warming” is impossible. According to Miskolczi, NASA refused to publish the results so he resigned in protest.

Fellow Hungarian scientist Miklós Zágoni was a strong supporter of the Kyoto Protocol until he read Miskolczi’s theory. Now he is climate alarmist turned climate realist.

The 40-page paper is entitled: ‘Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres’

The Abstract reads:

In this work the theoretical relationship between the clear-sky outgoing infrared radiation and the surface upward radiative flux is explored by using a realistic finite semi-transparent atmospheric model. We show that the fundamental relationship between the optical depth and source function contains real boundary condition parameters. We also show that the radiative equilibrium is controlled by a special atmospheric transfer function and requires the continuity of the temperature at the ground surface. The long standing misinterpretation of the classic semi-infinite Eddington solution has been resolved. Compared to the semi-infinite model the finite semi-transparent model predicts much smaller ground surface temperature and a larger surface air temperature. The new equation proves that the classic solution significantly overestimates the sensitivity of greenhouse forcing to optical depth perturbations. In Earth-type atmospheres sustained planetary greenhouse effect with a stable ground surface temperature can only exist at a particular planetary average flux optical depth of 1.841 . Simulation results show that the Earth maintains a controlled greenhouse effect with a global average optical depth kept close to this critical value. The broadband radiative transfer in the clear Martian atmosphere follows different principle resulting in different analytical relationships among the fluxes. Applying the virial theorem to the radiative balance equation we present a coherent picture of the planetary greenhouse effect.

Key-words: greenhouse effect, radiative equilibrium.