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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Ice Shelf Collapses with Crikey’s Credibility

March 26, 2008 By jennifer

There is an Australian e-journal that is popular with many government-types called crikey.com.au. Today the lead story began,

“A chunk of ice seven times the size of Manhattan (as big as the Isle of Man if you prefer a more Anglo-centric news source) is hanging by a thread to the main, still-frozen body of the western Antarctic. Satellite images are showing the rapid disintegration of a 41km x 2.5km ice chunk, a part of the Wilkins Ice Shelf that has been there for hundreds, maybe 1,500 years. It is happening, the scientific consensus seems to be, because the seas are getting warmer. It’s that greenhouse thing.

So, what to do? Blame China? No, we need to take individual responsibility. Wait on the Garnaut report? No, too little too late. We must act now … of course! Let’s turn some lights off on Saturday. For an hour. That’ll fix it. Meanwhile, click on the image below to watch a video of what Earth Hour is up against.” [end of quote]

Anyway, that’s about as clever as it gets even from the so-called alternative media and the story is much the same in The Australian.

Then of course there are the blogs, including some which actually provide data and background information to put the collapse of the icesheet in some context:

“In reality it and all the former shelves that collapsed are small and most near the Antarctic peninsula which sticks well out from Antarctica into the currents and winds of the South Atlantic and lies in a tectonically active region with surface and subsurface active volcanic activity. The vast continent has actually cooled since 1979…

“The full Wilkins 6,000 square mile ice shelf is just 0.39% of the current ice sheet (just 0.1% of the extent last September). Only a small portion of it between 1/10th-1/20th of Wilkins has separated so far, like an icicle falling off a snow and ice covered house. And this winter is coming on quickly. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60% ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record. The ice extent is already approaching the second highest level for extent since the measurements began by satellite in 1979 and just a few days into the Southern Hemisphere winter and 6 months ahead of the peak. Wilkins like all the others that temporarily broke up will refreeze soon. We are very likely going to exceed last year’s record. Yet the world is left with the false impression Antarctica’s ice sheet is also starting to disappear.”

Read the complete blog post and check out meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo graphs at http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate.

Then there is more information from Anthony Watt’s:

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/01/22/surprise-theres-an-active-volcano-under-antarctic-ice/

Map of volcanoes in Antarctica
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/antarcticvolcanoes2.jpg

This image is from NASA, and shows areas with greatest warming in Antarctica are near the peninsula and pacific ring of fire groups of volcanoes:
http://veimages.gsfc.nasa.gov//17529/antarctic_temps.AVH1982-2004.jpg

here is the original article
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17257

But now look at what Wikipedia has done to it:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Antarctic_temps.AVH1982-2004.jpg

They say ” they image is misleading…visit the discussion page”…okey dokey, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image_talk:Antarctic_temps.AVH1982-2004.jpg
and on that page they say “use alternative image” (GISS maps) instead which is this:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2007&month_last=09&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=1212&year1=1951&year2=2004&base1=1951&base2=2006&radius=1200&pol=pol

And it STILL shows a big red area over the ataractic peninsula where volcanism is the strongest.
[end of quote from Anthony].

Thank goodness for the internet.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

The IPCC: On The Run At Last by Bob Carter

March 26, 2008 By Paul

UN climate body in panic mode as satellite temperatures turn down and a hard winter lashes both hemispheres

A soprano thrillingly hits her top-A, sighs with relief at achieving the desired effect, and moves on. But not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) whose climate alarmism started to crescendo in 2001 in the Third Assessment Report (3AR) with the statement that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely (>66% probable) to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”.

Recently, in their Fourth Assessment Report (4AR), and faced with their failure to convince the public that the sky is falling, the IPCC delivers even more preposterous advice in ever shriller tones, saying that “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% probable) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”. The wobble around top-A is clearly discernible.

The press, most of whom have firmly identified with the alarmist cause, continues to appease the Green gods by faithfully running IPCC’s now unrealistic scientific propaganda, thereby stoking public alarm; the science is a done deal, they say, and the time has come to stop talking. According to UK journalist, Geoffrey Lean, all that is lacking to solve the global warming “crisis” is political will from governments.

Well, thank the Lord for that lack. For the IPCC’s 2007 final Summary for Policymakers shows that the climate alarmists are at last on the run. Their evidence for dangerous, human-caused global warming, always slim, now lies exposed in tatters for all to see.

In contrast, the alternative, persuasive and non-alarmist view of climate change is well summarized in two recently issued and readily available documents. The first is a letter to the Secretary General of the United Nations, which was released at the UN’s Bali conference last December, supported by the signatures of 103 eminent professional persons. The second is the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change, the release of which coincided with the launch of the International Climate Science Coalition at a major climate rationalist conference in New York in early March.

The evidence for dangerous global warming adduced by the IPCC has never been strong on empirical science. Endless circumstantial scare campaigns have been run about melting glaciers, more droughts and storms and floods, sea-level rise and polar bears, but all founder on one inescapable problem – as does Mr. Al Gore’s over-hyped science fiction film. And that is that we live on a naturally variable planet. Change is what planet Earth does on all scales, and so far not one of the alleged effects of human-caused global warming has been shown to lie outside normal planetary variation. Sea-level rising? Sure, it happens. And the appropriate response is adaptation, as the Dutch have known for centuries.

Stuck with the absence of empirical evidence for dangerous warming or abnormal change, in 2001 the IPCC turned to graphmanship, giving prominence in its 3AR to the so-called “hockey-stick” record of temperature over the last 1000 years. The hockey-stick graphic, which appeared to show dramatic increases of temperature during the 20th century compared with earlier times, has now been exposed as statistical chicanery and, thankfully, is nowhere to be seen in the 4AR.

No hockey-stick and no empirical evidence, what is a man to do? Well, obviously, turn to virtual reality rather than real reality: PlayStation 4 here we come.

The IPCC’s expensive and complex computer models can be programmed to produce any desired result, and it is therefore not surprising that they uniformly predict warming since 1990. Meanwhile, the real-world global average temperature has stubbornly refused to obey this stricture. It exhibits no significant increase since 1998, and the preliminary 2007 year-end temperature confirms the continuation of a temperature plateau since 1998 to which is now appended a cooling trend over the last 3 years.

Is global cooling next?

“Best fit” of yearly average temperature

Lower atmosphere global temperature differences (0C) from 1979 – 1998 average

untitled.bmp

“Global warming theory indicates that temperature rise due to increasing carbon dioxide emissions should be most prominent at heights of 5-10 km in the lower atmosphere; instead, more warming is occurring at the surface. For the lower atmosphere, the satellite data indicate that, since the 1998 El Nino when temperatures spiked 10C due to a rise in water vapour emissions (the principal “greenhouse gas”), global temperatures dropped sharply, then stabilized and now show signs of continuing down – is global cooling next? (data courtesy of Professors John Christy and Roy Spencer, University of Alabama , Huntsville ; a best-fitted spline curve represents longer term temperature trends).”

Read the entire Canada Free Press article here.

Dr. Bob Carter is a Research Professor at James Cook University, Queensland, Australia, who studies ancient environments and climate, and whose website is at http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page_1.htm

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Whaling in the North Part II 2008 and Listen to a Humpback

March 25, 2008 By Paul

1) The Icelandic Minke Whaler’s Association states on its website “A conceivable agreement within the IWC?”

A rough translation:

“There has been an intersessional IWC meeting in London in March. According to the Icelandic IWC Commissioner, Stefan Asmundsson, there are no proposals that the IWC will start to regulate commercial whaling, even if such hints/ rumours have circulated in the Icelandic media.

However, there is a will within the IWC for a change, as it is obvious that the current system doesn’t work in a satisfactory way.

The IWC was funded to manage whale hunting, through the Committee. There have been disagreements in the Scientific Committee, for example on humpback whaling, that has been banned since the 60’s.

The SC has however been united in many issues , for example re the minke whale stock around Iceland. The stock is robust and can be managed for whale hunting. The question is how large should the quota be.

The IWC must reach a compromise. It must start working in accordance with the original Convention it was based on. Otherwise the whaling nations must withdraw from the IWC and depend on its own scientists.

Listen to a humpback whale

2) The Norwegians are currently in the Southern Oceans conducting research on krill on the survey
ship “ the G.O Sars”. The Norwegians are one of the big actors in this field, with factory ships in the Southern Oceans.

To study the krill, platforms, sonar, hydrofons were launched. One of these platforms were visited by a curious humpback whale.

The humpbacks were very curious and approached the survey ship. It seemed according to the crew that
The Southern Hemisphere humpbacks did dare to come closer to the vessel than humpbacks in northern seas.

The SH humpbacks are as well bigger than the NH ones, and can reach 18 meter.

Listen to the humpback through the hydrofon ( scroll down to “ LYDKLIPP : KLICK FOR Å HORE! “ and click on the text! Amazing sounds that Libby might interpret?

Humpbacks dominate

3) As has been mentioned above, the survey or research ship , G.O Sars, is currently in the Southern Oceans, between Cape Town and the Antarctica.

They have observed lots of humpback whales, about 103 animals. The pods are about 2-4 whales, usually adults together with calves. The humpbacks are usually observed near the ice, where they consume krill. They can easily eat 500 kg in a short while / “ in a gulp”. Krill is the primary food during the summer season.

The humpbacks are also very curious about the research ship. The ship has observed sperm whales, minkes, humpbacks and Fins, according to the ships diary, states Norwegian fisheries paper, Fiskeribladet.

Cheers,
Ann Novek
Sweden

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Whales

Coral Re-growth on the Great Barrier Reef: A Note from Bob Halstead

March 25, 2008 By jennifer

In July 2002 I was helping teach an underwater photography course for students at James Cook University. Day trips to the outer barrier were organised from Port Douglas. On the reef I mostly saw dead coral smothered with rafts of brown algae, and struggled to find any living invertebrates for the students to photograph. It was depressing.

However, in October 2007 I made a live-aboard cruise up the reef, and a day trip out of Cairns, which cheered me up enormously. All along the outer reef there were dramatic signs of coral regeneration. There were reefs covered with small plate corals of various species, and other corals, which looked, from my experience in Papua New Guinea, to be of the order of 1-3 years growth. Here are some of the photographs I took.

BobHalstead_GBR 07001 blog2.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Bob Halstead_GBR 07002 blog2.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Bob Halstead_GBR 07003 blog2.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

bob Halstead_GBR 07004 blog2.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Bob Halstead_GBR 07005 blog2.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Bob Halstead_GBR 07006.jpg
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Bob Halstead
http://www.halsteaddiving.com/

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Coral Reefs

Letter to The Editor: Ban Night-Time Sport

March 25, 2008 By jennifer

I have agreed to publish ‘Letters to The Editor’ that fail to make the mainstream newspapers. The following contribution from Art Raiche appears to have been overlooked by both the Sydney Morning Herald and The Australian:

Dear Sir,

Australia’s CO2 output is insignificant compared with that of the rest of the world. We could shut down all our industry, ban the burning of all fossil fuels and reduce ourselves to lives as hunter-gatherers and it would not make one whit of difference to climate change either here or anywhere else in the world.

Why should we initiate measures that will see jobs exported to countries that have no intention of putting serious emission controls in place? It is often said that we are amongst the highest producers of CO2 per capita. That may be but why should Australians be punished because we haven’t let our population get out of control?

Earth hour is being touted as a wonderful symbolic gesture. It is a gesture that may make the self-flagellants feel good but the earth’s climate system is not affected by symbolic gestures. If we were serious about such measures, we would ban night-time sport. The “environmental message” rock concerts would be less hypocritical were they to ban electronic instruments and amplification and ban admission to those who came by private cars.

There has been life on earth for more that three billion years. Homo sapiens has existed less than a quarter of a million years. We do not need to “save the planet” because it will be here long after we become extinct. We do not need to hasten our extinction as a prosperous nation because of mass hysteria generated by a misunderstanding of the earth’s climate system.

Art Raiche
[address supplied but withheld]

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Sign Up to Endorse Declaration Against Man-Made Climate Fears!

March 25, 2008 By Paul

One of the most important outcomes of The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York City conference was the production of the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change, a copy of which you can read below. The coordinators of the Declaration are opening endorsement up to individuals who support the declaration but were not physically at the event. These ‘remote endorsers’ of the declaration will be added to separate lists identified either as a “climate expert” or simply as an interested “citizen of the world”.

Please contact Tom Harris at the International Climate Science Coalition at
tom.harris@climatescienceinternational.net, if you would like to add your name to the list. There are 167 endorsers to this point, 94 of whom were at the conference and 63 experts who signed on later. For supporters of the declaration who are not climate experts, ICSC have created a third category, “Citizens of the World” which, once the number of endorsers gets large enough, they will publish to their Web page at http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/.

Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change

We, the scientists and researchers in climate and related fields, economists, policymakers, and business leaders, assembled at Times Square, New York City, participating in the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change,

Resolving that scientific questions should be evaluated solely by the scientific method;

Affirming that global climate has always changed and always will, independent of the actions of humans, and that carbon dioxide (CO2) is not a pollutant but rather a necessity for all life;

Recognising that the causes and extent of recently-observed climatic change are the subject of intense debates in the climate science community and that oft-repeated assertions of a supposed ‘consensus’ among climate experts are false;

Affirming that attempts by governments to legislate costly regulations on industry and individual citizens to encourage CO2 emission reduction will slow development while having no appreciable impact on the future trajectory of global climate change. Such policies will markedly diminish future prosperity and so reduce the ability of societies to adapt to inevitable climate change, thereby increasing, not decreasing human suffering;

Noting that warmer weather is generally less harmful to life on Earth than colder:

Hereby declare:

That current plans to restrict anthropogenic CO2 emissions are a dangerous misallocation of intellectual capital and resources that should be dedicated to solving humanity’s real and serious problems.

That there is no convincing evidence that CO2 emissions from modern industrial activity has in the past, is now, or will in the future cause catastrophic climate change.

That attempts by governments to inflict taxes and costly regulations on industry and individual citizens with the aim of reducing emissions of CO2 will pointlessly curtail the prosperity of the West and progress of developing nations without affecting climate.

That adaptation as needed is massively more cost-effective than any attempted mitigation, and that a focus on such mitigation will divert the attention and resources of governments away from addressing the real problems of their peoples.

That human-caused climate change is not a global crisis.

Now, therefore, we recommend –

That world leaders reject the views expressed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as popular, but misguided works such as “An Inconvenient Truth”.

That all taxes, regulations, and other interventions intended to reduce emissions of CO2 be abandoned forthwith.

If you would like to publicly endorse Heartland Institutes declaration on climate change please email tom.harris@climatescienceinternational.net

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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