Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Leading Climate Scientists Don’t Really Believe Their Climate Theory (Part 1)

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Belief in the truth of a theory is inversely proportional to the precision of the science.  At least that is what someone called Harris once said.

Modern climate science theory seems to be a case in point with imprecise extrapolation from often poorly understood variables to what have become generally accepted General Circulation Models which many scientists claim can predict future climate.  

But do the leading climate scientists, in particular the United Nation’s IPCC scientists, really believe in this theory? 

Not really. 

As their last big report was being assembled, The Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007, lead authors who asked what they really thought by way of a questionnaire. 

Climate scientist Ann Henderson-Sellers then pulled together these responses for a workshop held in Sydney in October 2007.   

Following are some of the responses from the climate scientists which fall into the category of ‘Serious inadequacies in climate change prediction that are of real concern’:

“The rush to emphasize regional climate does not have a scientifically sound basis.

“Prioritize the models so that weaker ones do not confuse/dilute the signals.

“Until and unless major oscillations in the Earth System (El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc.) can be predicted to the extent that they are predictable, regional climate is not a well defined problem. It may never be. If that is the case then we should say so. It is not just the forecast but the confidence and uncertainty that are just as much a key.

“Climate models need to be exercised for weather prediction; there are necessary but not sufficient things that can best be tested in this framework, which is just beginning to be exploited.

“Energy budget is really worrisome; we should have had 20 years of ERBE [Earth Radiation Budget Experiment] type data by now- this would have told us about cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. I’m worried that we’ll never have a reliable long-term measurement. This combined with accurate ocean heat uptake data would really help constrain the big-picture climate change outcome, and then we can work on the details.

“[Analyse] the response of models to a single transient 20th century forcing construction. The factors leading to the spread in the responses of models over the 20th century can then be better ascertained, with forcing separated out thus from the mix of the uncertainty factors. The Fourth Assessment Report missed doing this owing essentially to the timelines that were arranged.

“Adding complexity to models, when some basic elements are not working right (e.g. the hydrological cycle) is not sound science. A hierarchy of models can help in this regard.”

So here, in the words of leading climate scientists who are part of the so-called consensus, we have recognition that there are some major problems with the climate theory on which many of the world’s governments, including the Australian government, are making major interventions into our lives and our economies.

Interestingly the issues raised by the IPCC scientists are similar to those often discussed at this blog, including the issue of cloud feedback and climate sensitivity.  There have been recent major breakthroughs in this area by Dr Roy Spencer a so-called climate change skeptic who’s research findings, if incorporated into the climate theory of the IPCC, could significantly improve it and also perhaps go some way to helping develop a more scientifically sound basis for regional climate.   

Roy Spencer’s website with links to his key published scientific papers is here:
http://www.weatherquestions.com/Roy-Spencer-on-global-warming.htm

[Thanks to Luke Walker for the link to the opinion of Ann Henderson-Sellers with the quotes from the lead authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.]

Bull Market in Environmental Guilt

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“This is strange territory. The Dow is down. Wall Street needs a bailout. But in the Washington area and across the country, there is still a bull market in environmental guilt.  Sales of carbon offsets — whose buyers pay hard cash to make amends for their sins against the climate — are up. Still. In some cases, the prices have actually been climbing.  In other words, when nearly everything seems to be selling for less, thousands of individuals and businesses are paying more for nothing, or at least nothing tangible.”  Read more here.

World’s Mammals under Increasing Threat, including The Sumatran Tiger

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Leaders from government and non-government organisations as well as celebrities and scientists have converged on Barcelona, Spain, for a meeting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).   Yesterday at the Congress a new study assessing the status of the world’s mammals was released showing:

“188 mammals are in the highest threat category of Critically Endangered, including the Iberian Lynx (Lynx pardinus), which has a population of just 84-143 adults and has continued to decline due to a shortage of its primary prey, the European Rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus).

China’s Père David’s Deer (Elaphurus davidianus), is listed as Extinct in the Wild. However, the captive and semi-captive populations have increased in recent years and it is possible that truly wild populations could be re-established soon. It may be too late, however, to save the additional 29 species that have been flagged as Critically Endangered Possibly Extinct, including Cuba’s Little Earth Hutia (Mesocapromys sanfelipensis), which has not been seen in nearly 40 years.

Nearly 450 mammals have been listed as Endangered, including the Tasmanian Devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), which moved from Least Concern to Endangered after the global population declined by more than 60 percent in the last 10 years due to a fatal infectious facial cancer.

The Fishing Cat (Prionailurus viverrinus), found in Southeast Asia, moved from Vulnerable to Endangered due to habitat loss in wetlands. Similarly, the Caspian Seal (Pusa caspica) moved from Vulnerable to Endangered. Its population has declined by 90 percent in the last 100 years due to unsustainable hunting and habitat degradation and is still decreasing.”

The report states that habitat loss is the biggest issue for the world’s mammals especially in Southeast Asia.

The Sumatran tiger falls under this category and continues to lose habitat including to palm oil plantations and then there is also the issue of poaching.

The IUCN lists the tiger, Panthera tigris, as Endangered with less than 2,500 mature individuals in the wild.

Sumatran Tiger Courtesy Richard Ness

This picture of a Sumatran tiger was taken by a camera trap set by Neil Franklin and provided by Richard Ness.  Richard Ness has commented that “I am not sure the cutting of primary forest for logging or plantations is a real issue for them. They may do just as well in secondary growth. The main problem is humans hunting them for parts… same goes for orangutans.”

Dr Brendan Moyle, a zoologist and senior lecturer at Massey University, New Zealand, wrote on the issue of tigers and poaching in a note entitled ‘Tigers and Endangered Species’ at this blog in July last year.  ‘

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According to Wikipedia, the IUCN was founded in 1948 and brings together 83 states, 108 government agencies, 766 non-governmental organizations and 81 international organizations and about 10,000 experts and scientists from countries around the world.

Bowhead Whale Could Slow US Plan for OffShore Oil Drilling

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Tomorrow the residents of Barrow, Alaska, a town on the edge of the Arctic Ocean, will vote for a new mayor.    According to at least one report whoever wins will potentially impact the ability of the US to fast track its plans for energy independence through offshore oil drilling.

While both the current mayor, Edward Itta, and his rival and former Mayor, George Ahmaogak, are pro-development and have supported the oil industry, the incumbent Itta is against off-shore drilling.

Mayor Itta claims to be concerned that off-shore drilling will potentially scare away the bowhead whales which are still considered “culturally and nutritionally” important to his community of predominately Alaska Natives. 

There is also the issue of whether offshore drilling, as opposed to onshore drilling, will cut his municipality out of a share in the oil revenue.   Indeed could the whales be a convenient excuse for keeping oil exploration and revenue in the municipality?

In nearby Canada, hunting of bowhead whales is also still considered culturally important.  

In August, The Bowhead Whale Music Festival in Nunavik coincided with the signing of an authorization from Canada’s federal department of fisheries and oceans to kill a single whale.

[Image via IceClass removed February 5, 2009, because of copyright issues.]

Mobile Phones to Track Carbon Footprint

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I gather there are three ‘things’ now shared by most communities on this earth: keys, money and mobile phones.   So with the development of new software that enables mobile phones to track our carbon footprint, well, perhaps we can each soon be individually allocated a carbon credit by the United Nations? Read more here.

Counting Cows In Outback Australia

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A Queensland jackeroo   (‘jackeroo’=cowboy, Australian version!)   is overseeing his herd in remote territory when suddenly a brand-new BMW advances out of a dust cloud towards him. The driver, a young man in a designer suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the cowboy, ‘If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your herd, will you give me a calf?’ 
 
The jackaroo looks at the man, obviously a yuppie   (‘yuppie’=A young city or suburban resident with a well-paid professional job and an affluent lifestyle) , then looks at his peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, ‘Sure, why not?’ 
 
The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite tha t scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo. The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany . 
 
Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel Spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response. Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the cowboy and says, ‘You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves.’ 
 
‘That’s right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves,’ says the Cowboy. 
 
He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car. 
 
Then the cowboy says to the young man, ‘Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my calf?’
 
&n bsp;The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, ‘Okay, why not?’
 
 ‘You work for the Australian Government’, says the Jackeroo.
 
 ‘Wow! That’s correct,’ says the yuppie, ‘but how did you guess that?’ 
 
‘No guessing required.’ answered the jackeroo. ‘You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked. You used all ki nds of expensive equipment that clearly somebody else paid for, You t ried to show me how much smarter than me you are; and you don’t know a thing about cows … this is a flock of sheep. Now give me back my dog.’    

[via Denis Barrett]