According to a new study, about 70% of the recent warming trend in the Atlantic Ocean is from reduced numbers of dust storms and volcanic eruptions. Other factors, such as a warming of the global climate, contribute only about 30% to the upward trend. Read more here.
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April Quadrant
Folks,
The April edition of Quadrant has published a written version of the talk that I gave at the Heartland-2 conference in New York, under the title “A New Policy Direction for Climate Change”. It can be accessed online at:
http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2009/4/a-new-policy-direction-for-climate-change
The same issue also contains an very useful analysis by Tom Quirk of the perils of computer modelling, though I can’t find an electronic copy posted (if anyone finds one, perhaps they could distribute the details).
Lastly, if anyone wants to become depressed then try a browse through some of the 122 and counting submissions to the Australian Senate enquiry into the draft emissions trading legislation, at:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/economics_ctte/cprs_09/submissions/sublist.htm
Perhaps it’s just the ones that I’ve picked out to look at, but my God there’s a mountain of self-serving rubbish here. Amongst it, though, there are a few shining lights, including No. 28, from Viv Forbes and the Climate Science Coalition.
Cathy
Clergyman Blames Climate Change
George Browning, the former Bishop of Canberra and Goulburn, told more than 2,000 people gathered in London’s Westminster Abbey that human activity was causing climate change and extreme weather conditions. Read more here.
Team of Climate Sceptics Invited to UN Copenhagen Conference
THE fifteenth United Nations Climate Conference (COP-15) will be held in Copenhagen in November. While only one official view on the science, that of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is usually put forward at these gatherings, this year the United Nations has agreed to support an alternative and probably rival overall assessment from a team of climate change sceptics.
This decision follows a recommendation from Vaclav Klaus, the well-known climate sceptic who currently holds the European Union Presidency.
The recommendation was first made to President Klaus by David Henderson, a former chief economist at the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) based on the work of Irving L. Janis on ‘Groupthink’.
According to the late Mr Janis irrespective of the personality characteristics and other predispositions of the members of a policy-making group, when the decision-makers constitute a cohesive group and are under stress from external threats it can lead to illusions of invulnerability and belief in the inherent morality of the group leading to self-censorship, illusions of unanimity and an incomplete consideration of alternatives solutions to the issue at hand.
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Fire as a Threatening Process: A Note from Roger Underwood
ABOUT two months ago I received a “heads-up” from a mate who works in Canberra that Environment Minister Peter Garratt was considering listing prescribed burning as a threatening process under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act. At first I thought this was nonsense, but then I reflected on the attitudes towards prescribed burning that we hear constantly from some well-known academics and environmental groups, and it suddenly seemed highly likely. So I wrote a letter to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, seeking clarification. All of this was going at about the time of the catastrophic bushfires in Victoria.
I have now received a reply to my letter. It was written by Ms Kerry Smith, an Assistant Secretary with the Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and Arts. Mr Rudd had forwarded my letter to the Minister for the Environment, who in turn forwarded it to his Department, where it eventually filtered down through the Department’s Approvals and Wildlife Division to its Wildlife Branch and thence to the Species Listing Section.
I now realise that the situation is complex and has many ramifications, as demonstrated by the following advice from the Department:
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Note to President Obama: The Science is Not Settled
“Few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than combating climate change.The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear.” President-elect Barack Obama, November 19, 2008
With all due respect Mr. President, that is not true.
We, the undersigned scientists, maintain that the case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated. Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now.1,2 After controlling for population growth and property values, there has been no increase in damages from severe weather-related events.3 The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.4 Mr. President, your characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect.
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Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.