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Jennifer Marohasy

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Trials & Tribulations of Queensland’s Climate Change

March 8, 2008 By neil

Stoney Ck.jpg

There are times, in the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest, when rainfall is so overly abundant that it would seem irresponsible not to derive electricity from hydro-generation. However, the Queensland Government’s existing policy prohibits supply between properties, so hydro-potential can only exist on a per property basis and very few have both the requisite flow rate and head.

At Cooper Creek Wilderness, water is diverted from the creek in the above photograph, through a 63 mm poly-pipe at a flow rate of 1.2 litres/sec. The diversion travels just under 1.6 km and drops 59 metres, losing 21 metres through friction. The water is released under high pressure through a nozzle onto a pelton wheel, generating 52 volts at 5.1 amps DC or around 6 kwhrs/day.

The beauty of hydro-power, is that it is constant, 24-hours per day, for as long as the creek’s flow rate exceeds the intake requirements of the hydro-plant. By contrast solar-power is intermittent and at its very best, can only derive electricity when the sun is out. In a place of abundantly high rainfall and luxuriant canopy, it is even more elusive. The reality is, Queensland’s Electricity Policy for the Daintree Area ensures more than 80% reliance upon engine generators.

In a media release last Wednesday, Queensland Premier Bligh announced two new initiatives in ‘Queensland’s fight against climate change, including a pilot program to deliver zero emission solar energy to 1,000 households in regional Queensland’.

“The Government will bulk purchase 1,000 solar power energy systems to make the green, renewable energy source a viable option for Queensland families.

“Even with the current rebates currently offered by the Federal Government, Queensland families still face an out-of-pocket expense of between $4,500-$5,000 to install a 1kW system.

“Our aim with this scheme is to drive that out-of-pocket expense down to around $1,000-$1,500, making the solar choice a much more viable one.”

Within the same media release, Queensland’s Minister for Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation, Andrew McNamara said Queensland was currently a low-user of solar power compared with other states.

“As at September last year, only 446 Queensland homes were using grid-connected solar power systems, compared with 2,045 in South Australia, 1,166 in Victoria and 1,007 in New South Wales,” Mr McNamara said.

“This initiative will take what is a boutique industry in Queensland to new heights and create a new wave of green collar jobs.”

The press release has drawn attention to another flawed aspect of existing policy, whereby the Daintree’s Renewable Power production is not available to Queensland through the grid. Queensland’s performance would certainly look healthier compared with other states if all of the renewable electricity generated in the Daintree region was not excluded.

The Premier has also announced that all relevant Cabinet proposals will now include an assessment of climate change impacts for Cabinet’s consideration.

“This means any proposals involving potential increases in greenhouse gas emissions – or projects that may be affected by climate change impacts such as sea level rise – must include an assessment of these issues for consideration by Cabinet.”

In the Daintree Cape Tribulation rainforest community, we are hopeful that this will draw renewed Cabinet consideration to the flawed Daintree policy and address the disgraceful emissions of the hundreds of concurrently running generators polluting both the rainforest and also the health of the sole tourism economy.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Energy & Nuclear

Climate Charlie

March 8, 2008 By Paul

Below is a photograph of Prince Charles’s ‘eco-friendly’ mode of travel. Charles and Camilla flew to Trinidad to board the private yacht Leander in order to cruise to Tobago, St Lucia, Montserrat and Jamaica, rather than fly, in order to reduce their ‘carbon footprint.’ Personally, I’d have thought it would be more eco-friendly not to go at all, but that’s just me being silly. The normal charter rate is £280,000 per week, but lucky UK taxpayers are assured that there will be an undisclosed discount.

leanderDM2202_468x293.jpg

In St Anne’s, Trinidad, on Wednesday 5th March, the Prince gave a speech about climate change at a dinner hosted by the president.

Prince Charles is reported to have said:

Excerpt: “Unfathomably however, there still seem to be some climate skeptics, those who view the case of rapid action to counter climate change is overstated or indeed completely invented,” he added.

“If I may speak plainly among friends, this is sheer madness. The scientific facts are as plain as they are alarming. Worryingly in the last few months we have learnt that the North Polar ice cap is melting so fast that some scientists are predicting that in seven years it will completely disappear in summer.”

Here are some famous quotes from Prince Charles:

“To get the best results, you must talk to your vegetables.”

“I just come and talk to the plants, really-very important to talk to them, they respond I find.”

“Science has tried to assume a monopoly – or, rather, a tyranny – over our understanding of the world around us … We are only now beginning to understand the disastrous results of this outlook.”
Prince Charles
Speech titled ‘Sacred in the Modern World’, July 1996

Finally, a picture is worth a thousand words:

sea ice.JPG

Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

New Theory of the Greenhouse Effect

March 8, 2008 By Paul

NASA linked Ferenc Miskolczi is a Hungarian atmospheric physicist who has published a new derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect which suggests “runaway warming” is impossible. According to Miskolczi, NASA refused to publish the results so he resigned in protest.

Fellow Hungarian scientist Miklós Zágoni was a strong supporter of the Kyoto Protocol until he read Miskolczi’s theory. Now he is climate alarmist turned climate realist.

The 40-page paper is entitled: ‘Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres’

The Abstract reads:

In this work the theoretical relationship between the clear-sky outgoing infrared radiation and the surface upward radiative flux is explored by using a realistic finite semi-transparent atmospheric model. We show that the fundamental relationship between the optical depth and source function contains real boundary condition parameters. We also show that the radiative equilibrium is controlled by a special atmospheric transfer function and requires the continuity of the temperature at the ground surface. The long standing misinterpretation of the classic semi-infinite Eddington solution has been resolved. Compared to the semi-infinite model the finite semi-transparent model predicts much smaller ground surface temperature and a larger surface air temperature. The new equation proves that the classic solution significantly overestimates the sensitivity of greenhouse forcing to optical depth perturbations. In Earth-type atmospheres sustained planetary greenhouse effect with a stable ground surface temperature can only exist at a particular planetary average flux optical depth of 1.841 . Simulation results show that the Earth maintains a controlled greenhouse effect with a global average optical depth kept close to this critical value. The broadband radiative transfer in the clear Martian atmosphere follows different principle resulting in different analytical relationships among the fluxes. Applying the virial theorem to the radiative balance equation we present a coherent picture of the planetary greenhouse effect.

Key-words: greenhouse effect, radiative equilibrium.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Whales, Dolphins and Sonar – A Note from Ann Novek

March 7, 2008 By Paul

Mid-frequency sonar signals linked to new pathologic entity in cetaceans.

An ongoing battle has been fought between environmental NGOs , mainly NRDC , and the US Navy for more than a decade.

The first rumours re the harmful impact of LFA ( Low –frequency Active) sonar on marine mammals, began already in 1994 , when NRDC investigated sound experiments off California coast. Even 300 miles from the source , these sonic waves have an intensity of 140 decibels , and some mid –frequency sonar systems can put over 235 decibels , as loud as a Saturn V rocket at launch.

The use of deadly sonar in the world’s oceans is spreading. The US Navy states ,the sonar is needed to detect hostile diesel –electric submarines from China, Iran and North Korea and other potential hostile countries.

In late January 2008, a dead Northern Right Whale Dolphin washed ashore off California , and this death was linked to ongoing naval exercises.

Sonar possible cause in death of rare dolphin

“ The lesions that we have seen to date are consistent to what has been found in the Canary Islands and the Bahamas”, said lead veterinarian , Rowles , with the National Oceanic and Athmospheric Administration.

“Scientists in the journal Nature theorized that these deep-diving whales might have panicked and bolted to the surface, causing decompression sickness, similar to the “bends” or air embolisms that can affect human divers. The problem arises when gas bubbles, compressed under the pressure of depth, expand rapidly and tear delicate tissues”

Excerpt from Nature : “ Macroscopically, whales had severe , diffuse congestions and hemorrhage , especially around the acoustic jaw fat , ears , brain , and kidneys . “

Vetinary Pathology:

“Gas and Fat Embolic Syndrome” Involving a Mass Stranding of Beaked Whales (Family Ziphiidae) Exposed to Anthropogenic Sonar Signals

Severely injured whales stranded and died due to cardiovascular collapse.

Another useful link :

LA Times: Dolphin dies near sonar site

Cheers,
Ann Novek
Sweden

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Plants and Animals

I Heard the Bomb that Rocked Times Square, New York

March 7, 2008 By jennifer

A bomb exploded at the military recruiting centre in Times Square, New York, early this morning. I am staying at the New York Marriott Marquis in Times Square and heard the explosion. It was just before 4am and I was working at my laptop. I wondered what the very loud explosive noise was. My window on the 34th floor looks north, the bomb went off just to the south east of the hotel. I didn’t see any smoke or flames so kept working on my last blog post on the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change.

Just after 5am I dressed to go walking, it is my last day in New York and I planned to visit the site of the World Trade Centre bombing. When I exited the hotel I found myself in the middle of a crime scene.

New York 001_blog.jpg
Times Square, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

New York 004_blog.jpg
Times Square, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

New York 012_blog.jpg
View from 6th Avenue towards 7th Avenue, about 6am Thursday March 6, 2008

A camera man told me someone had bombed the recruitment centre. I had planned to walk down 7th Avenue but I was directed north and so I walked across to 6th Avenue then headed south for the Financial District.

Once past the crime scene no-one seemed to know that there had just been a bombing.

New York 023_blog.jpg
Early morning of Thursday March 6, 2008, New York

I decided to detour through the West Village and wharf area and then enjoyed the view of the Hudson River.

New York 036_blog.jpg
The Hudson River, New York, Thursday March 6, 2008

By the time I made it to the corner of Chambers and Church Street decided I didn’t want to visit the site of a previous terrorist attack anymore. So I ducked into a diner for breakfast and then caught a cab back to the Theatre District – corner of 6th Avenue and 36th Street – where I had seen a sign in the window of a hairdressing salon saying they opened at 8am and no appointment was necessary. I knew I needed a hair cut but hadn’t had time to get one before the conference. I was at the Jean Pierre Hair Salon by 8.30am and had my hair cut and blow drier by Gilbert. As I walked back to the hotel a kind New Yorker took my photograph in front of the bomb site.

New York 044_blog.jpg
Military Recruiting Centre, Times Square, Thursday morning, March 6, 2008

Luckily no one appears to have been hurt in the explosion.

————–
Read about another important event in Times Square this last week but that has not attracted much media attention:
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002820.html

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Climate Change Conference, New York – Day 3, In Review

March 6, 2008 By jennifer

I’ve already reported on the standing ovation given to Vaclav Klaus following his speech at breakfast on day 3 of the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change in New York.

New York 004_copy.jpg
President of the Czech Republic Vaclav Klaus addressing delegates at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

There were two keynote speakers at each meal.

William Gray spoke after President Klaus and to the title ‘Oceans, Not Carbon Dioxide are Driving Climate’ and in particular about the circulation of water from the North Pole by way of the “Great Ocean Conveyor Belt” – Thermohaline Circulation (THC) – and the importance of the highly saline Atlantic Ocean.

Dr Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years including studies of broad-scale cumulus interactions, processes associated with tropical cyclone structure, development and movement. And I will admit to not understanding all of his presentation, so I am going to say no more than that while acknowledging that carbon dioxide, the sun, land use change and water vapour all impact climate, Dr Gray went on to explain that it is the oceans that really drive climate and that the associated changes in energy fields and atmospheric moisture are too complex and chaotic to integrate into climate models.

New York 016_william gray.jpg
A key slide from Dr Gray’s presentation.

After breakfast I headed to what is known at the Marriott Marquis as the Skylobby on the 16th floor to hear Marc Morano, Marlo Lewis and Michael Fox. The session on science and politics was introduced with reference to the so called scientific consensus and the suggestion was made that it is really a political consensus, not a scientific consensus.

Michael Fox is a nuclear specialist and he drew similarities in his speech between the current campaign against fossil fuels and the long standing campaign against nuclear energy. He suggested both reflected ‘illiteracy’ in the general public when it comes to science, maths and energy and spoke at length about environmental activists being against nuclear and hydro – yet these are the only real alternative to fossil fuels. His comments about activists being well organised and using regulation, litigation and/or taxation to attack the nuclear industry were interesting.

He finished with a quote from a Washington Congressman that “in my district it is political suicide to be rational on nuclear issues.”

I am familiar with the work of second speaker Marlo Lewis and in particular his comprehensive critique of Al Gore’s book ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ which you can find here: http://www.cei.org/pages/ait_response-book.cfm . But I had trouble following much of his speech at the conference because it was about the complexity and history of US environmental legislation the implications of which he was hopefully exaggerating because is it really possible that litigation could close down the US economy. Dr Marlo spoke about ‘ethanolism’ as an addiction which has swept over Washington and went into great detail about National Ambient Air Quality Standards and how government legislators could set the standard for carbon dioxide lower than current levels!

Marc Morano followed Marlo Lewis and I have already posted on his presentation here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002818.html . I will just add that Mr Morano also said polar bear numbers are at historical highs yet it is likely they will be listed as endangered.

I only caught part of the last session in the Skylobby which included some discussion on the Christian lobby and their links with the AGW lobby. The size of this constituency in the US runs into the tens of millions.

Instead of hearing more speakers I ended up joining UK resident and social anthropologist Benny Peiser and famous economist David Henderson for a pot of tea and some discussion on Level 8. Of course the pot was just hot water but we put the teabags into the pot rather than our cups – as the Americans get this so wrong.

Lunch was delicious; a delicate green rocket salad followed by a large piece of salmon on a wholesome risotto. The speakers were also great. Dr Roy Spencer is a principle research scientists for the University of Alabama in Huntsville and the US Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite and his presentation was entitled ‘Recent Evidence for Reduced Climate Sensitivity’. While at the morning session William Gray suggested oceans drive climate, Dr Spencer’s key point was that “if there is one organising principle it is precipitation systems” (rainfall). He explained his interest in temperature anomalies since the launch of the NASA Aqua satellite in 2002 and the detailed data this satellite collects including on intraseasonal oscillations in troposhere temperatures. I was fascinated to hear how the satellite data has helped understanding of how clouds change as they evolve and the strong negative cloud feedback during troposphere warming. This is not how the climate models behave – they suggest a strong positive feedback. Dr Spencer also explained how when his findings were published last August there was no media interest to his astonishment given then importance of the findings.

In an attempt to move with the opinion within his discipline that if you can’t “put it in numbers in a climate model all you are doing is hand waving”, Dr Spencer developed his own climate model, what he described as the ‘world’s smallest climate model’.

New York 051_World's Smallest mode.jpg
Slide from Roy Spencer’s presentation.

What the model showed was that the real climate system (as opposed to the virtual modelled system) is much less sensitive than most modellers assume.

Dr Spencer’s talk was perhaps the most important at the conference and his conclusions including:
1. Recent research supports reduced climate sensitivity including that tropical intra-seasonal osciallations show strong negative feedback and observational estimates of feedback are likely bias due to neglect of natural variability, and
2. The accommodation of these results by climate modellers in their cloud parameterization could greatly reduce climate model projections of future warming.

The last speaker for the conference was ABC News correspondent John Stossel. He gave an interesting talk on ‘scares’ and how and why the media reports them.

In his closing remarks for the conference Heartland Institute President and CEO Joseph Blast drew parallels between our conference and the small group of economists who gathered at Mont Pelerin, near Montreux, Switzerland, to discuss the state and the possible fate of classic liberalism in 1947. Mr Blast suggested that our gathering in New York will hopefully mark the beginnings of an intellectual movement that will help turn-around the politics of climate change.

I walked and napped in the afternoon before meeting some conference delegates – Bob Ferguson and Carol Ferguson, Bob Carter and Ann Carter, blogger Joe De’Aleo and Astrophysicist Willie Soon – for a light dinner and a glass of wine (or two) in the hotel.

New York 055_Carter,Soon, De'Aleo.jpg
Conference delegates Bob Carter, Joe De Áleo and Willie Soon not in a spaceship, but rather in a lounge at the New York Marriott Marquis.

I would like to again thank conference organisers and sponsors The Heartland Institute and also the people of New York who have helped make my short say here truly memorable.

—————-
You can read my perspective on Day 1 of the conference here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002809.html and Day 2 here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002813.html

Some media from the conference is here:

Bob Carter on the Global Warming Conference
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/198/6724/

Inconvenient Thermometers
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6727/?ck=1

Glenn talks with Lord Monckton
http://www.glennbeck.com/content/articles/article/196/6783/?ck=1

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change, People, Reports, Conferences

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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