Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Uncategorized

UK 2007 Floods ‘Not Linked to Climate Change’

By

The UK’s summer floods of 2007 were a freak event unrelated to global climate change, according to a report from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH).

The key cause was that extended rains early in summer soaked soils that would normally have been dry at that time.

When heavy storms came later, water could not soak away into the ground.

The report said data does not support the notion that UK summer rainfall is increasing or rivers are showing faster flow rates than in previous years.

BBC website: 2007 floods ‘no link to climate’

There seems to be a conflict of opinion here between the CEH, Met Office, and the Environment Agency.

How Sensitive is Climate to Solar Variability?

By

According to an analysis by Scafetta and West published in the March edition of Physics Today (subscription required), the Sun ‘could account for as much as 69% of the increase in Earth’s average temperature.’

Article title: “Is climate sensitive to solar variability?” By Nicola Scafetta of Duke University Physics Department and Bruce J. West of the US Army Research Office, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

Excerpt: “Thus the average global temperature record presents secular patterns of 22- and 11-year cycles and a short time-scale fluctuation signature (with apparent inverse power-law statistics), both of which appear to be induced by solar dynamics. The same patterns are poorly reproduced by present-day GCMs and are dismissively interpreted as internal variability (noise) of climate. The nonequilibrium thermodynamic models we used suggest that the Sun is influencing climate significantly more than the IPCC report claims. If climate is as sensitive to solar changes as the above phenomenological findings suggest, the current anthropogenic contribution to global warming is significantly overestimated. We estimate that the Sun could account for as much as 69% of the increase in Earth’s average temperature, depending on the TSI reconstruction used. Furthermore, if the Sun does cool off, as some solar forecasts predict will happen over the next few decades, that cooling could stabilize Earth’s climate and avoid the catastrophic consequences predicted in the IPCC report.”

This article is based on Scafetta and West’s previously published peer reviewed papers.

Yes, I know Real Climate are exceedingly rude about this work and RC are entitled to their politically motivated views, just as Scafetta and West are entitled to their’s.

Update: Full article now available here.

Michaela – The Next Generation

By

Another sign of me ageing – first came my 50th birthday and now my daughter has made me a grandad. Baby Michaela is pictured below. She arrived at 6.58am on 8th March and weighed 6 lb 10 oz. In common with many new-born babies, she has slight jaundice, which is rapidly improving with the help of a UV light. We don’t seem to have much imagination where names are concerned – my daughter (20) is called Michelle, and my son is (24) is called Michael.

P3080483.JPG

All seems to be well despite a few scares. During the birth the heart rate faded, not helped by the fact that the umbilical cord became wrapped around her neck 3 times. Resuscitation equipment was rushed into the delivery suite, but wasn’t needed in the end. Michaela also has only one functional kidney. The other is a Multicystic Dysplastic Kidney (MCDK). The last scan before birth estimated that MDCK was 9 cm, about twice the size of the normal kidney. A scan today measured it at 7cm. Hopefuly it will continue to shrink and no surgery will be necessary. The consultant will decide tomorrow (Tuesday) and then we can bring them both home. Our daughter’s/son-in-law’s house isn’t ready to move into yet.

The proud parents are pictured below watching hospital TV:

P3080491.JPG

Many thanks to everyone at Good Hope Hospital Maternity Unit.

Oceans Fall Over Millions of Years

By

A new paper published in Science magazine suggests that ocean the floors are getting deeper and sea levels have fallen by about 170 meters (560 ft) since the Cretaceous period 80 million years ago, due to tectonic shifts. Previous estimates were between 40 to 250 meters. On this basis of this work, a fall of 120 metres is expected over the next 80 million years, which equates to just 0.015 centimetres per century. Not much when we we consider IPCC projections of sea level rise. That said, the IPCC seems to have abandoned decadal projections in their latest report and gone for a 90-year projection, following the accuracy failures of the 1990, 1995 and 2001 reports. See the January 15th post over at Prometheus: Verification of IPCC Sea Level Rise Forecasts 1990, 1995, 2001.

The research article is entitled: ‘Long-Term Sea-Level Fluctuations Driven by Ocean Basin Dynamics’

The first paragraph reads:

Earth’s long-term sea-level history is characterized by widespread continental flooding in the Cretaceous period (145 to 65 million years ago), followed by gradual regression of inland seas. However, published estimates of the Late Cretaceous sea-level high differ by half an order of magnitude, from 40 to 250 meters above the present level. The low estimate is based on the stratigraphy of the New Jersey margin. By assimilating marine geophysical data into reconstructions of ancient ocean basins, we model a Late Cretaceous sea level that is 170 (85 to 270) meters higher than it is today. We use a mantle convection model to suggest that New Jersey subsided by 105 to 180 meters in the past 70 million years because of North America’s westward passage over the subducted Farallon plate. This mechanism reconciles New Jersey margin–based sea-level estimates with ocean basin reconstructions.

The paper is also reported by Reuters, with their usual perspective on climate change.

Queensland’s Proposed Iconic Legislation (part II)

By

Contrary to the intent of the outgoing Douglas Shire Council’s resolution to not allow Council staff to participate in the process of preparing submissions to Queensland’s Draft Iconic legislation, the Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning has contracted the Planning Consultant primarily involved in developing the Douglas Shire’s Planning Scheme, to prepare a Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire.

Having previously thought that one-month public consultation for Queensland’s Draft Iconic legislation was inadequate, the six days offered this afternoon, for the Draft Iconic Values Statement, is remarkably challenging. We are advised, “Unfortunately any submissions received after 6pm on Monday the 17th March 2008, will be unable to be considered.”

Two days before this deadline, the inaugural Cairns Regional Council elections will be held, leaving the successful candidates with only one working day to respond within this window of eligibility.

One might be excused for assuming that a Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire would be a relatively simple descriptor, given that 82% of the Shire is bedded in World Heritage legislation. The adjacent Great Barrier Reef WH area ensures another binding level of iconic constraint and at a lower level, the Integrated Planning Act ensures the preservation of Good Quality Agricultural Lands.

But no; the Draft Iconic Values Statement for Douglas Shire is unexpectedly more definitive, even down to the level of unsealed roads, oil palms that line the entrance to Port Douglas and the waterfront markets that are valued not only by tourists but also by local residents. It details iconic WH values, biodiversity values (including a new species of fish found in Cooper Creek), the Irrawaddy and Indo Pacific humpback dolphins, migrating birds, waders, flying fox, southern cassowary, stream-inhabiting frog species, Bennett’s tree kangaroo, estuarine crocodile and spotted quoll, among many others.

These ecological values are already protected under the various provisions of the Nature Conservation Act 1992 and World Heritage legislation, but with this new layer of Iconic legislation, it would seem that the forced amalgamations are merely a smokescreen for a de facto dissolution of local governance in the former Shire of Douglas and the expansion of bureaucracy.

Billy Goes Hunting: A Book by Matt Butler

By

“The children of avid hunters routinely face questions and criticism about the hunting lifestyle they cherish. Billy Goes Hunting is the story of a young boy whose hunting beliefs have been challenged by his peers. In response to those challenges, on a trip to visit Grandfather’s farm, Billy asks the question – “Why do we hunt?” – and his Grandfather explains the many reasons behind the heritage, sport and tradition of the hunting lifestyle. Reading this book to your children will allow you as a parent to explain all of these reasons in detail and provide a great platform to discuss any other questions your children might have…

Read more about this book here: http://www.billygoeshunting.com/index.html

Read about the author Matt Butler here: http://www.billygoeshunting.com/author.html