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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Superimposing Climate Data on a Fish

August 7, 2005 By jennifer

American meteorologist George Taylor has done a review of the ‘Arctic Climate Impact Assessment’ for the Marshall Institute. Taylor has an interest in correlations and finding ‘matches’. This is what artic temperatures back to 1880 look like superimposed on a fish, specifically the black sea bass:

fish in climate data.jpeg

Read the full report at http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/309.pdf . The fish can be found on page 33 and in figure 38. There is some discussion of the famous hockey stick on page 32.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Supreme Court Decision on Coroner Maria Doogan

August 6, 2005 By jennifer

The IPA held a conference in March 2003 about the lessons to be learnt from the 2003 bushfires which destroyed over 3 million hectares including three quarters of Kosciuszko National Park.

This was just before I started with the IPA and so I didn’t get to hear what Phil Cheney, one of three invited experts, had to say.

According to the summary as published in the IPA Review key messages included failure of land managers to follow established scientific principles as a result of green politics, see http://www.ipa.org.au/publications/publisting_detail.asp?pubid=198 .

The summary concludes that “there is little doubt that the management of Australia’s parks, forests and other public lands will come under greater scrutiny as a result of the horrific fires of 2003.”

This was the hope of many ordinary Australian who live in rural and regional Australia when Coroner Maria Doogan began hearing evidence on October 7th 2003. The inquiry had been established by Jon Stanhope, the Chief Minister and Attorney-General of the ACT.

Then the inquiry was closed down by the same government, on the basis of ‘apprehended bias’ on the part of Coroner Maria Doogan.

Michael Duffy summarized the situation in a piece titled ‘The firing line’ published in the SMH on 23rd May, see
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/The-firing-line/2005/05/22/1116700595179.html .

Yesterday Justice Crispin of the ACT Supreme Court handed down a long judgement dismissing the application from the ACT government.

The judgement is a fascinating read and includes much comment about the views of Phil Cheney, http://www.courts.act.gov.au/supreme/judgments/doogan1.htm .

And page 33 of 69 (paragraph 92) includes:

An apprehension of bias may easily arise when, as appears to have occurred in this case, a judicial officer has been led to believe that an expert witness has been independently appointed to assist the court when, in fact, he or she has been engaged by the ACT Government and that entity has also been granted leave to be represented as an interested party to the proceedings. It may be understandable that departmental officers accustomed to treating courts as a sub-branch of their department may have failed to appreciate the impression that could be created in this manner. However, s 59 of the Act was clearly intended to permit coroners to engage investigators who would be independent of any of the interested parties, and whose opinions could not therefore be called into question on the grounds that they may have been influenced by competing loyalties. A lay observer could well become apprehensive on learning that a coroner had treated a person as an independent investigator when, in fact, he or she had been engaged by one of the interested parties.

Despite Mr Burnside’s able submissions to the contrary, this was clearly a matter of potential concern in the present case and, if the evidence given by Mr Cheney and Mr Roche had generally favoured the ACT Government, a finding of apprehended bias may well have been inescapable. However, that was not the case. On the contrary, Mr Tracey’s submissions clearly reflected concern that aspects of their evidence was critical of Government employees and/or agencies. It is true, of course, that a party who has engaged experts may itself come to feel that it has suffered from subconscious bias due to them “bending over backwards” to be fair, but it will, of course, have been largely responsible for the situation that has led to any such psychological inclination. In any event, Mr Tracey did not raise any such contention. Nor did it lie comfortably with the ACT Government that, having created a situation of potential conflict, it then sought to complain of it.

The next really interesting read should be Coroner Maria Doogan’s final report – given she can now hopefully get on with the job of writing it.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Bushfires

Uranium Mining, but Not Croc Hunting

August 5, 2005 By jennifer

The NT government has conceded the Federal government has ultimate power of approval over new uranium mines – making the NT ban on new mines ineffective. And according to today’s Financial Review, this concession could result in new uranium exports of $12 billion with strong demand for uranium coming from China, Europe and Russia.

While crocodile hunting may never be worth very much relative to uranium mining, it is interesting that the NT government has a plan for limited and regulated safari hunting of crocodiles, but in this instance can’t get federal government approval. Federal government approval is apparently needed in order to be able to export “the products of the safari hunts”, see
http://www.nt.gov.au/ocm/media_releases/2005/07%20July/20050713_ScrymgourCrocSafaris.pdf .

UPDATE 4PM
Uranium miners are confused at
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1431171.htm and
Queensland stand by opposition to uranium mining at
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1431258.htm

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Energy & Nuclear, Food & Farming, Plants and Animals

Belief in the Truth of a Theory

August 4, 2005 By jennifer

I wrote these two laws down on a scrap of paper years ago. I still have the scrap of paper but not the original reference.

Harris’s First Law:
Belief in the truth of a theory is inversely proportional to the precision of the science.

Harris’s Second Law:
The creativity of a scientist is directly proportional to how much he knows, and inversely proportional to how much he believes.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Philosophy

Litigation Over Canberra Fires, And

August 3, 2005 By jennifer

The Coronial Inquiry into the 2003 Canberra bushfires ended with an application for disqualification of Coroner Doogan. A decision from the Supreme Court of the ACT is expected some time soon.

Last month, perhaps in frustration with the ACT Government’s perceived interference with the Coronial inquiry, sixty-two victims of the January 2003 bushfires brought a class action against the ACT, NSW and Commonwealth Goverments for damages, accusing the governments of negligence.

A summary of this action, written by the ACT government solicitor, can be found here, Download file .

Today I was sent information about a new website for volunteer fire fighters,
http://www.volunteerfirefighters.org.au/ .

There are several other websites, borne of frustration with government’s approach to controlled burning and hazard reduction including,
http://www.bushfires.net/ .

I am keen to collect links to bushfire sites. I know there is a site maintained by retired WA foresters, but can’t find a link to it through google or on my computer.

UPDATE 4TH AUGUST
This WA bushfire site just brought to my attention: http://www.bushfirefront.com.au/

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Bushfires

To Dredge, or Not to Dredge

August 2, 2005 By jennifer

ABC Online is running two stories on dredging.

One is about dredging at the mouth of the Murray, see http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1428180.htm

In this story, Brenton Erdmann from South Australia’s Water Department is quoted stating that dredging has made a big difference, “We’ve been dredging continuously for 24 hours, seven days a week for coming up to three years now so we’re really starting to see the benefits of that.”

I am not sure from the piece what the benefits are.

Interestingly, when Charles Sturt arrived at Lake Alexandrina (bottom of the Murray) in 1830 what we now consider the Murray’s mouth was back then a maze of impassable sandbars.

The other story is about Melbourne’s Port Phillip Bay and how a flotilla plans to blockade the entry of a dredging ship on the basis dredging will destroy marine life in the area, see http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1427699.htm.

So it’s good to dredge the mouth of the Murray, but bad to dredge Port Phillip Bay?

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Water

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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