Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Tim Flannery on Hockey Sticks

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In his new book the ‘The Weather Makers’ (Text Publishing, Melbourne, $32.95) Professor Tim Flannery suggests that the medieval warm period was unique to Europe with “a survey of global temperature records (from ice-cores, tree-rings and lake deposits) showing that, if anything, Earth was then overall slightly cooler (0.03C) than in the early and mid twentieth centuries”. This according to Flannery shows that the “idea of a global Medieval Warm Period is bunk.” (pg 44)

The real bunk is perhaps Flannery’s claim that the world’s leading science journals are telling us that species are vanishing right now as a consequence of climate change. (pg 6)

He is a good writer though, and there is some interesting stuff in the book including his comment there are three agents of change:
1. shifting continents,
2. cosmic collisons and
3. climate-driving forces such as greenhouse.
Flannery writes that while they all act in different ways, they drive evolution using the same mechanisms “death and opportunity”. (pg 46)

Close Down the IPCC

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The US Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works continues to hear testimonials on climate change and related issues.

Earlier this week Lord Nigel Lawson from Britian’s House of Lords told the Americans what he thought:

“I am grateful for your invitation to testify before you today. I am aware that you have been provided with the Report of the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs on The Economics of Climate Change in advance of these proceedings, so I intend simply to summarise our key findings and to provide some commentary of my own.

By way of background, the Economic Affairs Committee is one of the four permanent investigative committees of the House of Lords, and fulfils one of the major roles of our second chamber as a forum of independent expertise and review of all UK government activity. It is composed of members of all three main political parties. Its climate change report, which was agreed unanimously, was published on 6 July 2005, just ahead of the G8 summit at Gleneagles in Scotland.

In summary, the Committee concluded that:

1. The Government should give the UK Treasury a more extensive role, both in examining the costs and benefits of climate change policy and presenting them to the public, and also in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);

2. There are concerns about the objectivity of the IPCC process, and the influence of political considerations in its findings;

3. There are significant doubts about the IPCC’s scenarios, in particular the high emissions scenarios, and the Government should press it to change its approach;

4. Positive aspects of global warming have been played down in the IPCC reports: the IPCC needs to reflect in a more balanced way the costs and benefits of climate change;

5. The Government should press the IPCC for better estimates of the monetary costs of global warming damage and for explicit monetary comparisons between the costs of measures to control warming and their benefits;

6. A more balanced approach to the relative merits of adaptation and mitigation is needed, with far more attention paid to adaptation measures;

7. UK energy and climate change policy appears to be based on dubious assumptions about the roles of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and the costs to the UK of achieving its objectives have been poorly documented, and the Government, with much stronger Treasury involvement, should review and substantiate the cost estimates involved and convey them in transparent form to the public;

8. Current UK nuclear power capacity should be retained;

9. International negotiations on climate change reduction will prove ineffective because of the preoccupation with setting emissions targets. The Kyoto Protocol makes little difference to rates of warming, and has a na

New Port to Open as Ice Melts

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While planet earth has warmed only 0.6C on average over the last 150 or so years, warming in the artic has been more significant.

Clifford Kauss et al have written in the New York Times about new opportunities in the Artic as the ice melts:

It seems harsh to say that bad news for polar bears is good for Pat Broe. Mr. Broe, a Denver entrepreneur, is no more to blame than anyone else for a meltdown at the top of the world that threatens Arctic mammals and ancient traditions and lends credibility to dark-visions of global warming.

Still, the newest study of the Arctic ice cap – finding that it faded this summer to its smallest size ever recorded – is beginning to make Mr. Broe look like a visionary for buying this derelict Hudson Bay port from the Canadian government in 1997. Especially at the price he paid: about $7.

By Mr. Broe’s calculations, Churchill could bring in as much as $100 million a year as a port on Arctic shipping lanes shorter by thousands of miles than routes to the south, and traffic would only increase as the retreat of ice in the region clears the way for a longer shipping season.

Keep reading here …

Farmers Reject ‘Testing’ Funded by Greenpeace

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The following press release from the Pastoral and Graziers’ Association (PGA) of Western Australia raises some interesting issues.

FAST AND LOOSE WITH THE TRUTH, YET AGAIN

Greenpeace and the Network of Concerned Farmers (NCF) have, once again, resorted to media grandstanding in their obdurate opposition to GM crops.

The Greenpeace press release titled “First Australian farmer falls prey to GE contamination”, released on 10.10.05, does nothing to advance the public debate. It merely reinforces the fact that
the misuse of scientific data is the principle technique employed by these organisations.

The press release claims that GM contamination was found in a non-GM crop at a rate of 0.5%. It is important to note that testing was on a crop owned by Geoffrey Carracher, a NCF member and known anti-GM campaigner, and the analysis was paid for by Greenpeace.

Would Greenpeace accept a scientific analysis as to the benefits of a GM crop, where the data came from one farmer – one pro-GM farmer – and the analysis was paid for by a biotechnology company? Would the media?

Such an analysis is meaningless – certainly without significant corroborating evidence, and particularly as the supposed quantity found (0.5%) is actually well within the threshold set by the EU (0.9%) – one of the most restrictive markets in the world. Just as with the false ‘contamination’ scare in WA three weeks ago, the opponents of biotechnology will take any opportunity to run a fear campaign on this issue.

The PGA position on GMOs remains the same

How Many People?

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I am in Darwin for a conference with the grand title ‘Creating a Vision for a Greater Australia – big ideas for a big country’. Chief Minister Clare Martin and The Hon Dr Barry Jones AO will both be speaking this morning.

It is interesting to ponder that in about 200 AD when the world population was about 200 million Quitus Septimus Florence Terillianus a Roman citizen was worrying about population. He wrote:

“farms obliterate emply places, plough fields vanquish forests, herds drive out wild beasts, sandy places are planted with crops, stones are fixed, swamps drained, and there are such great cities where formley hardly a hut .. everywhere there is a dwelling, everywhere a multitude … We are burdensome to the earth. The resources are scarcely adequate for us … already nature does not sustain us. Truly, pestilence and hunger and war and flood must be considered as a remedy for nations, like a pruning back of the human race becoming excessive in numbers.”

In 2005 there are more than 6 billion of us, with a projected population of 9.5 billion by 2050, at which point human population growth should plateau.

Scientific America has a feature on population in its September (2005) issue. Prof Joel Cohen writes that

“… the dramatic fall since 1970 of the global population growth rate to 1.1 or 1.2 percent a year today resulted primarily from choices by billions of couples around the world to limit the number of people born. Global human populations growth rates have probably risen and fallen numerous times in the past. The great plagues and wars of the 14th century, for example, reduced not only the growth rate but also the absolute size of global population both largely involuntary changes. Never before the 20th century has a fall in the global population growth rates been voluntary.”

Good Move for Koalas

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ABC Online reports that more than 200 koalas will be relocated from French Island to Yarra State Park near Gladysdale today.

Iam Temby from the [Victorian] Department of Environment says the move is part of an annual project to protect koala feeding habitats.

“Part of the reason is that French Island doesn’t have [the] disease chlamydia and chlamydia inhibits breeding in populations, so it slows the rate of population increase,” he said.

“The koalas breed prolifically on French Island and they need to be removed regularly each year otherwise they’re going to eat all the trees that sustain them.”