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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Paying for No Water

February 25, 2006 By jennifer

There is nothing straight forward or logical about how water is allocated for irrigation in Australia. And every scheme and catchment has its own historical idiosyncrasies.

I am always amazed when I read that irrigators are paying for water they aren’t getting when there is a drought. Payment for a percentage of an allocation even if the dam is dry is a condition of many irrigation licenses.

Just yesterday ABC Online reported that:

“The NSW Government is under pressure to waive fixed water charges for Lachlan Valley irrigators.
Producers have started receiving bills for the 2004/5 financial year, despite not having a water allocation during that period.

Is it possible that some south east Queensland irrigators could one day have to pay for no water, because it has been sold to a power station?

A reader of this blog, Hasbeen, was extremely frustrated last week after attending the Community Reference Panel launch of the Logan Basin Draft Water Resource Plan. Logan is just south of Brisbane in south east Queensland, Australia.

Draft plans and reference panels are part of the jargon and process of resource planning in Australia. It has been my observation that they often reflect government’s commitment to consult, while its policy officers dabble in central planning.

I have edited the following note from Hasbeen, written after he attended that meeting:

“What a joke. We got over an hour of an ‘Environmental Investigations Report’ which said it is more important that the river is a wildlife corridor, than we do anything to reduce/prevent erosion and the invertebrates in the sand are much more important than the people who live, and work, on the river.

Then the real crunch, what it means to the people who have lived on, and depended on the river for much of their lives.

For irrigators on supplemented streams there will be not much change. They will still pay for their water allocation, whether or not ther is water. But there is a likelihood that this water will also be sold to higher payers, e.g. power stations, in future.

For those on unsupplemented streams, where not one cent of taxpayer funds has been spent, the story is bad. These people are on area licenses, dictating that they may irrigate so many hectares. These are to be converted to volume licences, but at a very low rate, varying between 4 and 4.5 ML/ha.

Department of Primary Industry figures state that it takes 5.6 ML/ha per year to maintain pasture grass, about the lowest user of irrigation. For dairy farmers it takes 6 ML/ha to produce 4 months of winter rye grass, then a similar amount to run summer feed. Lucerne growers could not survive on this allocation, and neither could small crops growers.

We were told this conversion figure was chosen after a survey of irrigators, but none of the community reference panel had been surveyed.

To make matters worse, a volumetric cap will be put on water harvesting. Harvesting is only allowed when the river is in ‘fresh’, and hundreds of megaliters per day is rushing out to sea.

To tell a farmer that he must watch a river, 30 meters wide, and 6 meters deep rush past his pump, with out taking any is stupid. When that water will be in Morton Bay in 6 hours, it’s criminal.

One of the water resource people I spoke to did not appear to understand our little river, it seemed as if we were talking about two different things.

Their thinking, and I suppose, training relates to our long, slow, inland rivers, where water can take weeks to meander down stream. He found it almost impossible to believe that if we all pumped, with all our pumps, we could not make a dent in the flow of our river during a fresh.

He would not believe that a rain drop, from our head water, would be in Morton Bay in 24 hours.

After EIGHT years of community input we have got a total ‘stuff up’.

None of the pain this plan will impose on our community will, or can, have any benefit for anyone. We will pay for our water, even if there isn’t any, and probably go broke doing it.

How can they get it so wrong, unless there is a hidden agenda, and this plan is to be used as a basis for other plans, which can advantage urban water supply.”

End of note from Hasbeen.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Water

On Boxer and Blogging

February 24, 2006 By jennifer

I’ve observed that comment threads following blog posts can be a bit like forests. When just a few people post lots of comments, they tend to crowd out others, and you end up with a less diverse thread.

There is an old fellow who comments every so often at this blog. He tends to make a useful remark or observation here and there.

Once he dominated a very long comment thread, but it was on a topic he knows so much about. Boxer knows a lot about forestry issues and how to grow a healthy native forest.

In the beginning Boxer used his real name at this blog, then he started signing off ‘Boxer’. He has said that he can relate to Boxer the hard working old horse in George Orwell’s classic novel Animal Farm.

But what a fate befell Orwell’s Boxer. He was working hard trying to get the windmill build for the good of all the animals, but he slipped, and while he was down, the pigs had him carted off to the local glue factory. No state funeral.

Orwell’s novel is about a revolution gone wrong.

Our Boxer has made the following comment about revolutions:

“I think revolutions are not my favourite events because they develop their own momentum and purpose which is not related to the original reason for change.

I don’t trust myself either, when I latch onto an idea, because proving myself to be right very quickly becomes the object of the exercise.

I am interested in the choices we have to make to manage the state of the environment, where all the options, other than eliminate humans altogether, are compromises and we have to choose the least worst course of action.

I follow your blog because you have a tenacious way of pursuing the evidence, which I admire. Only by sticking to the evidence can we avoid the worst pitfalls of picking a side for emotive reasons and then defending that position at all costs, even if one of those costs is worsening environmental fallout somewhere else.”

At this blog, and on the issue of a dead platypus Boxer once commented,

“At least he shot it and then boiled it; he could have brought it to the boil and then shot it.

And on the subject of climate change,

“As soon as someone says ‘the evidence is all in, no further debate is necessary’ I become confident their argument is too weak to survive rigorous analysis. This accusation can be levelled at both sides of this debate at times.

And on forestry,

“Most forest scientists are public sector people, and public servants are not encouraged to discuss their work in public forums. You may be aware that the principal function of the public servant is to NOT embarrass the Minister under ANY circumstances. My minister was part of the public campaign to crush the local forest industry. So I’m not likely to participate in this sort of debate in a more public place using my own name am I?

Somewhere in the public service act there is the power for my employer to put me in a corner to sharpen pencils for the next decade for writing this.”

No. We don’t want our Boxer carted off to the glue factory. We value his insights, appreciate his pen name and we look forward to his next insightful contribution.

————————
This post will be filed under a category titled ‘people’. As a reader and/or commentator at this blog you may like to tell us something about yourself? Contributions encouraged please email to jennifermarohasy@jennifermarohasy.com.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: People

Advertising Our Environment

February 24, 2006 By jennifer

There has been some debate about whether the new advertisement for Australia as a tourism destination is offensive or not.

You can view the advertisement by clicking here.

Is it OK for the young woman/the sheila to use the words ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’

Once upon a time there would have been more complaints about her lack of clothing?

And gee the Australian environment looks OK.

How do we reconcile images like this with the description of the Australian environment as ruin in Jared Diamond’s new best seller, ‘Collapse’, or Ian Lowe’s ‘A big fix: radical solutions for Australia’s environmental crisis’?

Filed Under: Uncategorized

How Much Forest Should Be Saved?

February 23, 2006 By jennifer

Tasmanians will go to the polls on 18th March. Of course with an election in Australia or Tasmania comes the usual bagging of the forest industry and timber company Gunns Ltd. This time a proposed pulp mill is developing as the point of contention, but really it is all about the ‘rights’ and ‘wrongs’ of cutting down tall trees.

Stephen Mayne from Crikey.com was rather vicious yesterday, writing that:

“John Gay [Gunns Chairman] knows how to slaughter trees and export woodchips, but building a huge pulp mill is in another league and some in the market think this simple but aggressive man doesn’t have the ability to deliver.”

Interestingly according to the Wilderness Society website:

“Gunns is the biggest native-forest logging company in Australia and the biggest hardwood-chip company in the world.

Gunns receives the overwhelming majority of logs destined for sawmills and woodchip mills from Tasmania. It owns all four export-woodchip mills in Tasmania. It exports more woodchips from Tasmania than are exported from all mainland states combined. Gunns exports over four million tonnes of native-forest woodchips each year.”

Gunns and Gay are survivors.

And with all the hype it is worth considering some statistics – like how much of Tasmania is logged? Barry Chipman from Timber Communities Australia sent me the following spreadsheet yesterday.

forest stats ver 2.JPG

With 45 percent of Tasmanian forests not available for wood supply because this area is reserved, it could be concluded that relative to European countries, John Gay operates in an environment that affords a very high level of protection to its forests.

How does Europe compare to the rest of the world? What percentage of a country should be available for logging? What percentage of Tasmanian forests should be available for logging?

I live in a wooden house and I work off a wooden desk and I use paper everyday.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Forestry

Environmental Priorities Wrong & Reef Not at Risk: Peter Ridd

February 23, 2006 By jennifer

Dr Peter Ridd from James Cook University gave a lecture in Townsville yesterday and it was reported in The Age. Not bad given that he wasn’t pushing a doom and gloom message and doesn’t believe the reef is at risk from global warming. He’s some of what The Age reported:

Risks to the Great Barrier Reef have been overstated and Australians should be more worried about population growth and noxious weeds, a physicist says.

Dr Peter Ridd from Townsvilles James Cook University (JCU) today challenged the widely held view that one of the world’s most important natural assets is in serious decline.

He said the reef, which other scientists predict could be wiped out within 30 years due to global climate change, was in “first rate condition”.

“It’s probably one of the best preserved ecosystems in the whole world,” Dr Ridd, of JCU’s Faculty of Science, Engineering and Information Technology, said.

“I think the only place that’s probably better is Antarctica, and that is because it’s a long way away from any significant population centre.”

His comments came only weeks after scientists warned of a new coral bleaching threat following the discovery of blanched corals off the central Queensland coast.

Dr Ridd said although the reef suffered extensive bleaching in 1998 and 2002, most of it was unaffected and the parts that were damaged “completely recovered”.

“I think some of it is a beat-up and I think we’ve got our priorities wrong,” he said.

“We have around the country some serious environmental issues associated with weeds and indeed with things like population and the growing of our cities.

“We’re not worried about all these other things which are potentially far more important and definitely there, whereas you can argue about the Great Barrier Reef being in jeopardy.”

Dr Ridd, who formerly worked with the Australian Institute of Marine Science – a body which has long sounded warnings about threats to the reef – said coral bleaching was an “adaptation to changing environmental temperature”.

Additionally, pollution from sediment and agricultural run-off was negligible given the reef’s size and how rapidly it was flushed by tides, he said.

In a draft policy paper for new environment group the Australian Environment Foundation (AEF), Peter Ridd outlines and discusses the various environmental issues he sees confronting Australia. The paper can be accessed from the home page of the AEF, click here.

I have listed nine reasons why Peter Ridd doesn’t consider the reef is at risk from global warming at an earlier blog post, click here.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Water

More Intense Tropical Cyclones: Likely Impact of Global Warming

February 22, 2006 By jennifer

Meterologists from around the world gathered in Cape Town, South Africa, this week.

At the World Meterological Conference a report was tabled summarizing information on the impact of global warming on cyclones including hurricanes and typhoons.*

Titled Statement on Tropic Cyclones and Climate Change, two of the nine authors are from the Australian Bureau of Meterology.

Julian Heming from the United Kingdom Met office gave the following summary in a media release:

“The main conclusion we came to was that none of these high-impact tropical cyclones could be specifically attributed to global warming. Whilst there is no conclusive evidence that climate change is affecting the frequency of tropical cyclones worldwide, there is an ongoing debate as to whether it is affecting their intensity.

The report is unusual, in so much as these type of documents associate with climate conferences are often written in such a way that they exaggerate the likely impact of global warming. This report seems to represents a middle ground and acknowledges there is no consensus on the issue of increased intensity.** It does acknowledges a potential impact from global warming and the likely nature of this impact – more severe hurricanes.

The report also includes comment that:

1. While demographic trends [more people living in more hurricane prone coastal environmentals] are the dominant cause of increasing damage by tropical cyclones, any significant trends in storm activity would compound such trends in damage.

2. Projected rises in global sea level are a cause for concern in the context of society’s vulnerability to tropical cyclones. In particular for the major cyclone disasters in history the primary cause of death has been salt-water flooding associated with storm surge.

3. A robust result in model simulations of tropical cyclones in a warmer climate is that there will be an increase in precipitation [rainfall] associated with these systems (for example, Knutson and Tuleya, 2004). The mechanism is simply that as the water vapor content of the tropical atmosphere increases, the moisture convergence for a given amount of dynamical convergence is enhanced. This should increase rainfall rates in systems (viz tropical cyclones) where moisture convergence is an important component of the water vapor budget. To date no observational evidence has been found to support this conclusion; so no quantitative estimate can be given for the anticipated rainfall increase without further research.

I interprete this last point to mean that as it gets warmer it is likely to get wetter?

The report includes the following summary of tropical cyclone activity during 2004 and 2005 and notes that a number of high-impact tropical cyclones events occurred during this period:

1. Ten fully developed tropical cyclones made landfall in Japan in 2004, causing widespread damage.

2. Southern China experienced much below-normal tropical cyclone landfalls and subsequently suffered a severe drought.

3. Four major hurricanes caused extensive damage and disruption to Florida communities in 2004.

4. In March 2004 southern Brazil suffered severe damage from a system that had hurricane characteristics, the first recorded cyclone of its type in the region.

5. Five fully developed cyclones passed through the Cook Islands in a five week period in February-March 2005.

6. The 2005 North Atlantic Hurricane Season broke several records including number of tropical cyclones, number of major hurricanes making landfall and number of category five hurricanes. In particular, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina at New Orleans and Mississippi caused unprecedented damage and more than 1300 deaths.

……………………………………………

*A hurricane is a cyclone in the Atlantic Basin and North Pacific east of the dateline. A typhoon is a cyclone in the Northwest Pacific west of the date line.

** This is what the report says on the issue of cyclone intensity:

“No single high impact tropical cyclone event of 2004 and 2005 can be directly attributed to global warming, though there may be an impact on the group as a whole;

– Emanuel (2005) has produced evidence for a substantial increase in the power of tropical cyclones (denoted by the integral of the cube of the maximum winds over time) during the last 50 years. This result is supported by the findings of Webster et al (2005) that there has been a substantial global increase (nearly 100%) in the proportion of the most severe tropical cyclones (category 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), from the period from 1970 to 1995, which has been accompanied by a similar decrease in weaker systems.

– The research community is deeply divided over whether the results of these studies are due, at least in part, to problems in the tropical cyclone data base. Precisely, the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks and intensities is a byproduct of real-time operations. Thus it’s accuracy and completeness changes continuously through the record as a result of the continuous changes and improvements in data density and quality, changes in satellite remote
sensing retrieval and dissemination, and changes in training. In particular a step-function change in methodologies for determination of satellite intensity occurred with the introduction of geosynchronous satellites in the mid to late 1970’s.

– The division in the community on the Webster et al and on the Emanuel papers is not as to whether Global Warming can cause a trend in tropical cyclone intensities. Rather it is on whether such a signal can be detected in the historical data base. Also it can be difficult to isolate the forced response of the climate system in the presence of substantial decadal and multi-decadal natural variability, such as the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

– Whilst the existence of a large multi-decadal oscillation in Atlantic tropical cyclones is still generally accepted, some scientists believe that a trend towards more intense cyclones is emerging. This is a hotly debated area for which we can provide no definitive conclusion. It is agreed that there is no evidence for a decreasing trend in cyclone intensities.”

Update

Following comment and advice from readers of this blog I added the word ‘tropical’ to the title of this blog post.

Jennifer, 8pm. 22nd Feb.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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