Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Charting a New Road from Coorain: On Drought in Australia

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The Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, has just announced a $350 million extension to the government’s drought relief measures and for the first time offering the same aid to Australian irrigators as well crop and dairy farmers.

Farmers become eligible if the drought is a one in 20 or 25-year event and results in a substantial downturn in earnings for more than 12 months.* The assistance, known as exceptional circumstance (EC) assistance, can come as a dole payment and/or interest rate subsidy. There are various criteria that must be met including that the farmer derives at least 50 percent of income from the farm.

Since 2001 the federal government has provided $1.2 billion to more than 53,000 farm families in EC assistance.

With the new announcment 18 of the 65 regions already drought declared will get an 18 month extension in interest rates subsidies and other direct relief from end of this year to the middle of 2008.*

There are those who argue that farmers should not receive drought aid. I received the following note from a reader:

“So why should we support a safety net for our rural producers. Businesses in the city just go broke and are not bailed out. Is agriculture about capitalising gains and socialising losses. Are these some of the reasons:

• the regional economic effect of drought can distroy whole rural towns and regional communities
• rural Australia is worth preserving because it is the only part of Australia that looks and feels Australian.
• food production so special security case
• national ethos identifies with the bush
• global markets aren’t level anyway (EU and US agricultural subsidies) so this helps even things up for the worst climate variability in the world
• drought assistance is not seen as a subsidy in world trade talks
• Australian farmers are still transitioning to self reliance model – need time to adjust
• tax system still not optimal for climate risk management – change June to December, more income equalisation ideas
• urbanites expecting unrealistic environmental dividends from the bush that add to costs
• animal welfare
• human welfare
• high interest rates need subsidy because high rate is due to mining and urban prosperity both of which force up rural wages
• resources in the bush are sticky – market reacts slowly, so subsidy can ease pain
• drought subsidies make the coal industry feel better or at least might stop farmers suing coal miners.
• the National party has to be seen to have a winner or you end up with more extreme parties emerging, for example One Nation.“

And I received the following note from another reader:

“What have lessons have Australians learnt from drought. And what new lessons await if we entering a new world of climate change or even experiencing for the first time natural variability unknown to Europeans. Do we need a new road to follow?

The Road from Coorain is an autobiographical story of Jill Ker Conway’s isolated childhood and youth in Australia. In 1930 Jill Ker Conway’s newly married parents bought the remote sheep station of Coorain. When Jill reached the age of eight, Coorain was struck by a devastating series of drought years in which most of the Kers’ sheep were lost.

Jill’s father died when she was at age 11 (suicide or fixing a pipe in a farm dam), and the grief-stricken family, overwhelmed by the series of disasters, left their beloved home and moved to the city of Sydney. A good call for Jill who became a famous academic and historian. But many families don’t move on.

Perhaps the stoicism of the Australian character is too well entrenched for the good of man and beast.

Drought feeding of livestock doesn’t pay for big droughts. It can lead to unmanageable equity losses, the property and the family.

Of course not all droughts are caused by lack of rainfall. Small property sizes, debt and over-expectations from good seasons can lead to overgrazing. Overgrazing can lead to environmental degradation of the land, soil loss, increase in woody weeds and unpalatable grasses and long-term loss of carrying capacity.

Man made “drought” occurs when stocking rate exceeds carrying capacity (i.e. drought is not only rainfall-induced)

According to one state government:

Humans control stocking rate.
Nature controls carrying capacity.
Success in drought is achieved in the same way as at other times (e.g. using sound business management principles).
Have a plan.
Move early !
Watch out for unmanageable equity losses.
Look on mistakes as learning opportunities.
Preserve the resource base for financial recovery and future generations.

All good sound stuff but not enough.

Over the last decade most state departments of agriculture have introduced climate risk programs with information about inherent climate variability and the use of seasonal climate forecasts (e.g. the SOI – Southern Oscillation Index which is a measure of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation). The Bureau of Meteorology and DAFF have facilitated that process further towards a theme of “self reliance”.

The idea is to give landholders an edge to see early warning signs and make decisions such as: sell livestock, plant less crop area, select different crop varieties or decide not to heavily invest in fertiliser and pesticide inputs.

But seasonal climate forecasting has at best 60-70% accuracy. Minority odds have to come up eventually and the forecast will be seen to be “wrong” in some years.

Lesson learned on Queensland’s Darling Downs include that out of 10 years – 4 break even, 3 lose money and 3 make a profit.

Some producers access income equalisation deposits to smooth out the tax stream but how much more is needed?

Should the tax year be moved from June to December. June is often not a good time to be pressured into decisions.

Protection of the resource base isn’t as simple as it seems either. South West Queensland graziers can protect the resource only to have it ‘finished off’ by kangaroos late in the drought. And the possibility of dry seasons can make graziers very hesitant to renovate pastures with fire which inevitably leads to woody weed buildup and/or woodland thickening.

Loss of productive pasture area then compounds with economic necessity to pressure the resource further. And how much green sympathy will you get?

So our future farmers have to get smarter – have farm business plans, use forecasts, more efficient agronomy, hedge on futures markets and develop a diversified income stream all while coping with a declining terms of trade and increasing environmental demands from an increasingly urban population.

Climate change may require a rethink on what a viable living area is, whether to install irrigation, and for long term industries – what variety of heat sensitive long-term orchard and vine crops to invest in. Some landholders can adapt by growing niche crops like Sandalwood but obviously not all.

But big multi-year droughts are in the end tediously dry. No amount of technology can compensate for zero water. And you don’t need a forecast to tell you you’re in a drought.

But it’s lack of money that finishes off farming dynasties. So the real answer is to have off-farm non-agricultural diversified income or one of the family working in town or on other properties elsewhere.

Today’s newspapers are suggesting farmers move north to where the water resources and rainfall are still abundant. A new environmental battle ground? Fleeing from Australia Felix?

Do we now have the technology to beat the heat, the insects, the isolation, the cost of shipped inputs and distance to market which comes with agriculture in northern Australia. If farmers are to move north do we need new infrastructure including a great port to Asia at Wyndham or the rail line extended from Katherine to Kununurra?

Sir Sidney Kidman had a view of drought proofing his operation by owning properties all the way from Victoria to the Kimberley. But El Nino can potentially take out all that country. Perhaps in the 21st century we can realise that dream for agriculture and pastoralism but only by doing a global Kidman and having on/off operations in Australia and Argentina thereby oscillating in harmony with El Nino. Then perhaps we can truly be Kings in Grass Castles.“

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* Some states, for example Queensland and NSW also have their own schemes ontop of the federal goverrnment’s EC. Queensland uses a drought 1 in every 10 years as basis for assistance declaration so farmers could be picking up EC assistance almost 25 percent of the time? so that state could be providing assistance 22% of the time when you factor in what rainfall it takes to revoke a drought declaration.

* Here’s the latest map with EC boundaries.
EC Boundaries Oct 06.JPG

The Climate Change Scare Campaign: A Note from Paul Willams

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Under a double page headline ‘Dire warning on rising sea levels’, South Australia’s Sunday Mail had what Paul Williams described as an “extraordinary article on climate change”. Here’s his critique:

“On the right hand page are six maps of the Australian continent, showing the coastline as it is today, and as it would look if the sea level rose 100 metres, 200 metres etc up to 500 metres. In small print, at the bottom of the caption next to the first map, is the disclaimer “Readers should note this was done as part of a scientific experiment, not as a prediction”. Nevertheless, the graphic has a powerful visual impact.

On the left hand page headlined in the print version, “Hard decisions needed”, the accompanying article begins “An apocalyptic prophecy of an Australia under water shows Adelaide would be one of the first places to disappear in a catastrophic sea level rise.” So straight away readers are given the impression that the graphic is an actual prediction, despite the disclaimer on the next page.

The “hard decisions” of the headline are explained by Dr Graeme Pearman, who is described as a Climate Institute Australia adviser and former CSIRO head of atmospheric research.

He says we will have to decide between protecting the coast with breakwaters or letting the coastline recede naturally. Dr Pearman states that sea levels have already risen 20 cm “with global warming”, and are expected to rise half a metre more over the next century. But there’s more, “if Greenland goes, it will rise by 7m”, and “if Antarctica went as well it would rise by 80m”.

Dr Pearman concedes it is unlikely that Antarctica will “go” during the next few thousand years, but the article leaves the impression that Greenland is quite likely to “go”.

This article is blatant sensationalism, with a few facts thrown, which do not support the sensational claims, and no balance. Why would the Sunday Mail publish such an article? Does the last paragraph give a clue?

“He (Dr Pearman) called for urgent action to join global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Australia and the US are the two main nations which have refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol to reduce such emissions.”

This looks like part of a process to sway public opinion towards Australia ratifying the Kyoto protocol.

If the article had said that Australia is on track to meet its Kyoto targets anyway, whereas many of the countries that have ratified Kyoto are NOT meeting their targets, I think most people would quite sensibly shrug their shoulders and say, “so why should we sign?” Add to that the fact that Kyoto can have no measurable effect on climate, yet will cost Australia jobs and hurt our economy, and there seems no reason at all to ratify Kyoto.

Of course there is a political aspect to all this. Labor has a policy that it will ratify Kyoto.

Is that why the Sunday Mail and the Advertiser are running a scare campaign, to help boost the prospects of Federal Labor?“

Maybe, or perhaps the newspaper, owned by Rupert Murdoch who is now concerned about global warming, is just really concerned about global warming? But is it good journalism?

Importing A Banned Product & Denying Drought Tolerance

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There is much concern in Australia about the current drought. The forecast for this year’s wheat crop has been cut by 8.5 million tons to just 11million. This is less than half last year’s production of 24 million tons.

The forecast for the canola crop is also down and there is talk about local crushers importing oil seed from Canada.

The imported canola would presumably be crushed to make vegetable oil and margarine.

If the imports go ahead, we will be importing seed from GM varieties of canola because that is what farmers grow in Canada. Farmers are banned from growing these GM varieties in Australia.

Indeed the current bans on genetically modified (GM) food crops in place in Australia, were forced by Greenpeace in particular to block the commercial planting of GM varieties of canola.

How hypocritical will that be, importing a product that Australian farmers are banned from growing.

And with all the focus on the drought, and predicted low wheat crop, it is interesting that there has been no public comment about the research effort in South Australia to develop GM drought tolerant wheat varieties; despite the bans.

Rather than rational discussion, a rural newspaper has published a letter denying the potential benefits of biotechnology for breeding drought tolerance. David Tribe explains, and explains the science:
http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2006/10/hyperbole-and-misinformation-versus.html

David also has an interesting blog post on how much natural ‘genetic modification’ occurs within plant species:
http://gmopundit.blogspot.com/2006/10/natural-gmos-part-26-nature-inserts.html

Drilling for Platinum and Nickel: A Note from Louis Hissink

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Louis Hissink is drilling at Thundelarra Exploration’s Lamboo project located about 40 KM WSW of Halls Creek in the Kimberley Region of Western Australia. His focus is exploration for platinum and nickel.

Louis sent the following note:

“The wet season is on us and the usual climatic signs have appeared – with rain already falling in some of the more remote areas. Another two months of the ‘build-up’ and if Halls Creek gets a good solid drenching from a cyclonic depression over the wet season, then it might replenish the underground water acquifer we the town relies on for its water supply.

Seems the greenies and other do-gooders have put paid to any notion of building a small dam nearby for water catchment solutions. [Indeed, existing dams are being busted in parts of rural and regional Western Australia, click here for previous blog post on the issue.].

Oh there is a drought alright, but it’s in the state parliaments where a serious drought of commonsense is evident. I can’t write what the Western Australian Water Authority thinks of the Environment Protection Agency and its fellow travellers.

Lots of feral horses in the area, and dying from a lack of feed and water – sad to see, but that is reality up here.

Louis_Drill 016blog.JPG
Louis is the one on the right.

The drilling rig is a small Reverse Circulation (RC) machine which can bore holes to about 150 metres depth.

Principal drilling method uses a down-hole hammer that pulverises the rock into smaller bits, including dust, using high power air compressors. The sample from the hammer is pushed up the inside of the rod string (hence the term
reverse-circulation) through the inner pipes then via a sample hose into a sampling cyclone where equal volume samples (nominally 1 metre length times the hole area) are collected. These 1 metre samples are then split into 2 fractions,via a Jones splitter in which an aliquot of the 1 metre sample is collected for initial chemical analysis in a laboratory. The remainder of the sample is left in a green plastic mining bag next to the drilled hole for further work. Field assistants later take rock chip samples from each metre sample by seiving through a standard household kitchen sieve and stored in purpose built chip trays – durable plastic things with 20 small compartments.

These chips are studied by the geologist to record the rocks identified down the drilled hole and displayed as a geological log.

Constant volume samples are collected to eliminate the “sample-volume-variance” phenomena when dealing with geological samples, since the variation of any measurement of sample chemical composition depends on the volume of material collected. Unlike social science statistics in which the sample support is an individual human, or in the general physical sciences where objects such as billiard balls, coins, or other discrete objects, is the sample support and from which we note that N, the number of samples, is always an integer value, such objects do not exist in geology or the earth sciences and hence special emphasis is directed to ensuring that the sample-support is maintained, here by ensuring constant volume samples.

Mineral exploration generally involves developing hypotheses about where mineral deposits might be located in the accessible parts of the earth’s crust, and initially tested by collected many inexpensive geochemical soil samples, and again special emphasis is directed to ensuring that sample-support is maintained, again by collecting equal volume samples of soil.

Chemical analysis of these samples are done and the data analysed geomathematically. Usually the samples are reported as metal assays as parts per million or billion, depending on the element, and are “intensive” variables. Because the sample support of data set is uniform, sample-volume-variance issues, as well as the pitfalls of applying statistical analyses to intensive variables are avoided, and that is another issue which won’t be described here.”

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Thanks for sending in the photograph and note.

Biochar (Part 1)

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Hello Jennifer,
I recently did a google search on ‘biochar’, this would be a useful way to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and at the same time improve soils.
It could be used on woody weeds, crop residue or any other organic waste that was available.
Regards Bruce