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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Red Gum vs Concrete Sleepers: A Note From Vic Eddy

March 23, 2007 By jennifer

Dear Jennifer,

This morning 23rd March, an item on ‘AM’ the ABC Radio current affairs programme quoted an ARTC (Australian Rail Track Corporation) report as saying that the use of timber sleepers results in 500x the carbon emissions compared to using concrete sleepers.** That report claimed the Australian Greenhouse Office as its source.

I have commented to AM through their web site which unfortunately goes to them and them alone. For your interest the following is a reasonable reproduction of that email.

“Dear Sir,

Your item this morning 23rd March quoted the Australian Greenhouse Office as the source of a statement that the use of timber sleepers produces 500 times the carbon emissions of concrete sleepers. That statement must surely put the credibility of the Greenhouse Office at risk.

Some basic facts:

Fact 1. We should all know that timber contains carbon and concrete does not.

Fact 2. To store 1000kg of carbon in railway sleepers 67kg of carbon will be emmitted in the process. The production of concrete to do the same job emits 430kg of carbon and stores none.

Fact 3. To convert a timber sleeper track to a concrete sleeper track means that all the timber sleepers become an emission. Add that to the emissions of producing the concrete replacements and we have a combined emission of 61.2 tonnes of carbon per km and none in storage.

Fact 4. A natural forest of regrowth and old growth is carbon neutral. That is it is emitting carbon at the same rate it is absorbing it from the atmosphere.

Fact 5. A healthy, sustainably managed, production forest is constantly absorbing more carbon than it emits. At the same time carbon is being stored for the life of its products in service.

Fact 6. By excluding the tribal aboriginal from the river front, open woodlands of River Red Gum have turned into closed forests of tall slim trees. If these forests become National Parks they will still need thinning treatment if they are to support the range of biodiversity that we expect to find.

Fact 7. Forests in National Parks can receive thinning treatment, as is the case in the Box- Ironbark, but the trees must be felled to waste as the product from a National Park cannot be sold.

Yours faithfully
Vic Eddy

—————–
** On October 01, 2006, I blogged ‘Switch to Concrete Railway Sleepers, Negates Wind Farm Savings’ with comment that:

“There is much community concern about global warming and an expectation we will all do our bit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

So why did the Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) decide to transfer its annual requirement for 400,000 railway sleepers from timber to concrete?

According to Mark Poynter* this will result in an extra 190,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year that could otherwise have been negated by carbon sequestered in forest regrowth and saved by avoiding concrete manufacture.

Read the full post here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001660.html

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Forestry

Remove the Barrages for the Coorong: A Note from Rojo

March 22, 2007 By jennifer

Hello Jennifer,

I have been a reader and minor contributor at your blog over the last few months.

A few weeks ago I was discussing the Coorong with another commentator in relation to the Prime Minister’s new $10 billion National Water Security Plan in particular the hyper-salinity aspect.

With all the talk of the Murray “dying” I had thought the hyper-salinity was due to lower flow from the Murray River, the direct implication being less dilution of the Coorong as well as not being able to keep the mouth open.

murray mouth.JPG

As an irrigation farmer it is not pleasant to be accused of being partially responsible for destroying the Coorong.

Having been across the barrages and seeing the Coorong first hand late last year, meeting affected stakeholders and talking to South Australian government officials, I couldn’t help but feel it is the right thing to send the Coorong more water and thus that I should support the $10billion plan in its aim to buy back water for the river.

However, if my interpretation of this report ‘A Paleaecological Assessment of Water Quality Changes in the Coorong, South Australia’ is correct, the actual water from the Murray River has had no noticeable influence on the Coorong.

In fact, according to the report:

“Before European settlement the northern lagoon of the Coorong was dominated by tidal input of marine water. Marine flushing also strongly influenced the southern lagoon but less
frequently or to a lesser extent.

At no time in the 300 years before European settlement has the Coorong been noticeably influenced by flows from the River Murray.

The northern end of the southern lagoon occasionally experienced hypersaline conditions in the 300 years before European settlement. Elsewhere in the Coorong, the salinity was typically at, or below, 35,000 mg/L. In the southern lagoon the presence of diatom and ostracod taxa preferring salinity levels ~ 5000 mg/L suggests regular freshwater input. This source is likely to have been from the south-east.” [end of quote]

The report also states that “the extended presence of marine diatom taxa in Lake Alexandrina suggests the tidal prism regularly extended into Lake Alexandrina throughout the last 6000 years”, which I take to mean long periods of low flow where the mouth evidently did not close but rather was flushed by the sea.

What few people now realize is that there are barrages, construction completed in 1940, across each of the five channels connecting the lakes with the Coorong. These barrages restrict tidal flow into the lakes and stop freshwater flowing out of the Murray River’s mouth.

So effectively we might spend billions taking water from upstream irrigators and in the process displace jobs/communities and achieve nothing for the Coorong.

I do realise there are other “iconic” sites on the Murray that will benefit from more water, but they benefit already from the environmental nature of water deliveries prior to extraction, and don’t require 1000GL of fresh water evaporation from the lakes in low availability scenarios.

I now wonder if the most natural thing we can do for the Coorong is to remove the barrages and allow tidal action to do it’s business in particular flushing the Coorong. If this study by Adelaide University is correct the fresh water from the Murray River is not what the Coorong needs. It needs to be flushed by the ocean and this would be facilitated by the removal of the barrages.

Using stored fresh water from upstream to keep the mouth of the Murray River open, as currently advocated by various environment groups and the federal government shouldn’t really be an option.

There is currently a proposal to build a weir on the river at Wellington which is upstream of the lakes.

Irrigators currently dependent on the Lakes would have to be supplied from water upstream of this proposed new weir, much to their benefit by getting better quality water. Funding under the new $10 billion water plan could allow this to happen.

If we don’t get significant inflows the weir at Wellington will be built, the lake levels will fall and the irrigators won’t be irrigating anyway. But the situation at the Coorong will not improve unless the barrages are removed or opened.

If we do get substantial inflows, what was the problem again?

Cheers
Rojo

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Murray River, Water

WWF Report on World’s Worst Rivers: Wrong Way Round on the Murray-Darling

March 21, 2007 By jennifer

The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has just released a report entitled ‘World’s Top 10 River’s at Risk’.

Australia’s Murray-Darling is included in the top 10. But it’s two rivers, so maybe the title should be ‘World’s Top 11 River’s at Risk’?

The report goes onto state that, “The Murray and Darling Rivers have great variability in year to year flows, and their ecology is driven by large floods covering their extensive flood plains and intervening dry periods.”

This may be the case for stretches of the Darling River, but the Murray is now a completely regulated system which, has even during this worst drought, been mostly full of water.

Anyway, this new report which has generated much publicity for WWF has identified the “key threat” to the Murray-Darling as “invasive species, especially from aquarium trade”.

But, interestingly, key invasive fish species identified in the report were not introduced recently or from the aquarium trade.

According to the new WWF report, native fish species such as the Silver Perch, Freshwater Catfish and the large Murray Cod are all “in rapid decline” while numbers of invasive species have significantly increased.

The report cites a government report, Barrett 2004, and a World Resource Institute website, WRI 2003, to support the contention that numbers of native fish are in decline and another government report, but also on the native fish strategy, MDBC 2005, as evidence numbers of invasive species are on the increase.

But none of these reports included good credible data on changes in numbers of invasive or native fish species.

The government’s native fish strategy was written by ecologist Jim Barrett. I contacted Mr Barrett when I was writing ‘Myth & the Murray: Measuring the Real State of the River Environment’ back in 2003.

Based in part on information provided by Mr Barrett, I wrote in that report that, “Since the 1980s, carp numbers [a key invasive species in the Murray River] have been observed to decline and downstream of Yarrawonga, numbers are thought to be about half what they were in 1997 and are now estimated to represent 21 per cent of total fish numbers. According to the Murray Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) a likely explanation for the decline in carp numbers is that the initial population boom resulted in an overutilization of available resources and subsequent reduction to equilibrium carrying capacity for this species. In contrast, local fishermen attribute the observed reduction in carp numbers to predation from an increasing Murray cod population.”

The WWF report acknowledges that, “since 1996 A$2 billion has been allocated to recover water to increase environmental flows and restore fish passage for the lower 1,800 km of Murray River.”

But in the next paragraph, without providing any data, falsely concludes that “despite these worthy initiatives, the ecological health of the rivers continues to decline.”

But even the typically pessimistic head of the Murray Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) Dr Wendy Craik recently described the “visionary Native Fish Strategy” as a success with “solid evidence” that native fish are using the new innovative fishways built as a part of the sea to Hume Dam fish passage program. Furthermore, Dr Craik claimed another success in the “resnagging” project in which large tree stumps, or snags, are placed strategically into rivers. The snags provide refuge from fast-flowing water and help to recreate original river habitats for native fish.”

But when is the MDBC, or WWF, or someone else, going to start collecting some good credible data on fish numbers?

In summary, the WWF report ‘World’s Top 10 River’s at Risk’ which is making news today, is about 20 years out of date at least with respect to the Murray River. Indeed while numbers of native fish have on average, probably declined since European settlement, with a crash in Murray Cod populations in the early 1960s, there is evidence to suggest numbers of native fish, including the Murray Cod, are now on the increase while invasive species are on the decline. So the WWF has got it all the wrong way around. Then again, they are perhaps more interested in ‘hand-waving’ than river ecology.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Murray River, Water

Sea Level Falls, Temperature Plummets Off Sydney

March 20, 2007 By jennifer

Earlier this year I spent a week at the beach, more specifically at Bluey’s Beach, on the NSW mid-north coast. My daughter and partner are both keen surfers. So, always in search of that best wave break, we also visited Boomerang, Elizabeth, Seal Rocks and a few other beaches.

I’m used to southeast Queensland with the summer water temperature a very pleasant 26C or so, and expected the same in NSW.

But the first day we went surfing it was a very cold 14C!

So much for the global warming of sea temperatures I thought as I shivered on the beach that day.

The locals explained that it was unusual, but they didn’t seem to have a good explanation. Interestingly, the water wasn’t so cold every day or at every beach.

According to a recent article in Sydney’s The Daily Telegraph a “massive, mysterious whirlpool of cold water” formed off Sydney in January and is still active “forcing the sea surface to fall almost 1m and ocean currents to change course”.

So sea levels are falling off Sydney?

According to the CSIRO, oceanographers have identified a huge, dense mass of cold water off Sydney but know very little about what causes it.

“What we do know is that this is a very powerful natural feature which tends to push everything else aside – even the mighty East Australian Current,” says CSIRO’s Dr David Griffin.

Dr Griffin, from the Wealth from Oceans Flagship Research program, said cold-water eddies regularly appear off Sydney.

“Until 20 years ago we would not have known they even existed without accidentally steaming through them on a research vessel,” he said.

“However, now that we can routinely identify them from space via satellite, marine scientists can evaluate their role as a source of life in the marine ecosystem.”

Reaching to a depth of more than 1000m, the 200km diameter ocean eddy has a rotational period of about seven days. Its centre is about 100km directly offshore from Sydney.” [end of quote]

Now I’m waiting for a best AGW explanation for this dramatic, even if localized and ephemeral, drop in sea level and sea temperature.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

The Debating Has Really Only Just Begun Over Global Warming

March 20, 2007 By jennifer

While various commentators have suggested that the debate is over, that anthropogenic global warming is a reality and the deniers should be silenced, if not jailed, last week there was a high profile debate on the motion “Global Warming is not a Crisis” in New York.**

The proposition, Michael Crichton, Richard Lindzen and Philip Stott, won by 46% to 42%. Before the event the organizers found the motion would have been disapproved of 57% to 30%, indicating a swing in favour of the global warming skeptics.

This morning I received an email requesting I post the details of a second possible debate, this time between The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley and Vice-President Albert Gore on the subject “That our effect on climate is not dangerous” to be held in the Library of the Oxford University Museum of Natural History at a date of the Vice-President’s choosing.

Ewire.com is advertising the debate with comment that:

“Monckton a former policy adviser to Margaret Thatcher during her years as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom said, “A careful study of the substantial corpus of peer-reviewed science reveals that Mr. Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth, is a foofaraw of pseudo-science, exaggerations, and errors, now being peddled to innocent schoolchildren worldwide.”

Monckton and Gore have once before clashed head to head on the science, politics, and religion of global warming in the usually-decorous pages of the London Sunday Telegraph last November.

Monckton calls on the former Vice President to “step up to the plate and defend his advocacy of policies that could do grave harm to the welfare of the world’s poor. If Mr. Gore really believes global warming is the defining issue of our time, the greatest threat human civilization has ever faced, and then he should welcome the opportunity to raise the profile of the issue before a worldwide audience of billions by defining and defending his claims against a serious, science-based challenge”. [end of quote]

My guess is that Al Gore will decline the invitation. He has so far been reluctant to debate, declining the opportunity to go head-to-head with the skeptical environmentalist, Bjorn Lomborg, when he visited Denmark last year.

Monckton ended his invitation with “May the truth win! Magna est veritas, et praevalent“.

————————-
** You can read a 79 page transcript of the New York debate at http://www.crichton-official.com/GlobalWarmingDebate.pdf

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

Warm Start to This Year

March 18, 2007 By jennifer

The global December 2006 to February 2007 land surface temperature was the warmest on record according to NOAA.

But Melbourne’s The Age newspaper was wrong to suggest this means the planet is “hotter than ever”!

There is some dispute as to whether the planet was warmer than it is now during the medieval warm period (from about the 9th to 14th Century when Greenland was colonised by the Vikings). But I think it is generally agreed that the earth was warmer during the last interglacial warm period which was about 125,000 years ago.

Nevertheless, the warm start to this year does not bode well for the two Russian climate change skeptics who have bet US$10,000 that the earth is going to cool soon. But this year (2007) won’t count. Their bet depends on the period 2012 to 2017 being warmer than the period 1998 to 2003.

temp anomaly dec06-feb07.JPG
Map from NOAA via Luke, added as an update to this blog post on 19th March 2007

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Climate & Climate Change

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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