Jennifer Marohasy

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Stealing Water from the Macquarie Marshes: A Note and More Pictures from Chris Hogendyk

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During the past month there has been a tributary flood event in the Macquarie Valley resulting in a moderate but valuable volume of water (approximately 26,000 megalitres) making its way down to the drought ravaged Macquarie Marshes.

Over 30% of this water was delivered away from the publicly owned Nature Reserves into the Gum Cowal/Terrigal system than runs down the eastern side of the Macquarie Marshes. This system has been receiving almost annual flooding throughout the drought. All this system is on privately owned country and as can be seen from the following images, the water is simply being diverted out onto the flood plain to grow fodder for cattle.

The following images show only two examples of the many diversions that are occurring.

mac marshes blog 1.jpg

mac marshes blog 2.jpg

Sadly, while this is happening, the two Nature Reserves originally selected for their key ecological values and owned by the people of NSW, lie starved for water and are in a significantly worse state having missed out on much of the so called environmental flows that have been despatched to the Marshes over a considerable period. Mr Hogendyk, Chair of Macquarie River Food and Fibre (MRFF) says this situation is absurd. “We are losing these iconic wetlands yet everyone involved is closing their eyes to the real cause of the problems.

Government and NGOs are simply focused on attacking the irrigation industry and buying more water entitlements while continuing to deliver water without understanding how it is being managed and diverted in the Marshes. ”

Mr Whittaker, executive member of MRFF adds “even when water does get directed to the Nature Reserves, both have large embankments upstream of them robbing them of much of their water. Has anyone assessed the impact of these banks?”

“Furthermore, of the water that does get into the Northern Nature Reserve, much of the water passes down the Bora channel system to the west rather than down the Macquarie River system. This deprives the core reed beds of much of their water” he said. The Bora channel prior to 1980 used to carry only 30% of the Macquarie River flows, now it carries 70%.

It is time all parties involved with the Marshes sat down and worked out an effective protocol for the long term by understanding the real issues and taking ownership of what are questionable practices and diversions. It is no longer acceptable for government, NGOs and some scientists to make judgements from afar that bear no resemblance to what is really the underlying problem.

from Chris Hogendyk
Chair of Macquarie River Food and Fibre

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I have written about the marshes here for OLO: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=4377
And there are more blog posts here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/faq.php?id=14&category=17

CO2 Record in Ice Cores Unreliable: A Note from Paul Williams

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Cllimate Change (IPCC) estimates pre-industrial levels of CO2 based largely on information derived from ice cores. These are kilometres long cylinders of ice drilled (in short sections) from the Greenland and Antarctic icecaps.

The theory is that air bubbles trapped in the ice are samples of the ancient atmosphere, and thus give an accurate reading of CO2 levels in those ancient times. The ice cores tell us that the pre-industrial level of
CO2 was about 290 parts per million (ppm).

Of course it’s not that simple. There are many factors to take into account, because ice from deep down in the ice cap is under enormous pressure, and that pressure is released when the cores are brought to the surface.

A brief summary of some of the processes going on in ancient, deep ice can be found here:

http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/bender/lab/research_ice_cores.html

Zbigniew Jaworowski, a multidisciplinary scientist, has long been a critic of the ice core CO2 record:

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/2006_articles/IceCoreSprg97.pdf

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2007/2007_10-19/2007-11/pdf/38_711_science.pdf

He makes a number of claims:

1. Ice core results reported before about 1985 showed higher CO2 levels than those reported since 1985, which he details in his 1997 paper.

2. Low pre-industrial concentration of CO2 in ice cores is an artefact caused by more than 20 physical-chemical processes. For example, CO2 is more than seventy times as soluble in water as is nitrogen, and liquid water is present in deep ice, even at -73C.

3. Drilling and retrieval of ice cores, including their decompression as they are brought to the surface, drastically disturbs the sample.

4. Subsurface melting of snow due to absorption of solar radiation is common in very cold sites, and may occur several times a year. This implies that the practice of dating ice cores using isotopes of oxygen, which assumes the temperature peaks are yearly events, is wrong.

The net result of these effects is to lower the CO2 levels in ice compared to that found in the atmosphere, by 30 – 50%, and to minimise fluctuations in CO2 in ice compared to the atmosphere.

Jaworowski illustrates this by comparing ice core data to other CO2 proxy data, such as stomata indices, which gives higher atmospheric CO2, with more variation than the ice core data over the last 8,000 years.

There is no doubt that ice core analysis is a highly technical subject, and scientists must make many assumptions when interpreting the data. One assumption that I personally found very interesting was that air inclusions in the snow and firn, or compacted granular snow, are well mixed with the atmosphere. In other words, the air in the hard packed snow is basically the same as the atmospheric air, down to the level of the ice. This could be 50 – 120 metres below the surface. Imagine hard packed snow that far down having a connection (and circulation with) the surface air. To me this is very counter-intuitive, but apparently Argon dating confirms it.

Jaworowski claims this is wrong, and that impenetrable layers, caused by melting and refreezing, cut off air inclusions from the atmosphere much earlier. This is the basis of his criticism that ice core data from the Siple core showed similar CO2 levels as the atmosphere did 83 years later, and thus the air in the ice core was assumed to be 83 years younger than the ice it was in.

Jaworowski has been criticised here:

http://www.someareboojums.org/blog/?p=7

The late Hans Oeschger, a prominent ice core scientist, was also critical of Jaworowski, and wrote a letter in 1995 expressing his views :

http://www.someareboojums.org/blog/?p=12

Following are some other links.

Jaworowski interview in May this year:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=25526754-e53a-4
899-84af-5d9089a5dcb6&p=1

Diffusion of CO2 in atmospheric gas analysis (on pp10 – 11)

http://www.biomind.de/nogreenhouse/daten/AIGnewsNov06.pdf

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From Paul Williams who lives in the Adelaide Hills, Australia

Other contributions to this blog from Paul Williams include:

Hockey sticks and ancient pine tree, at https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001546.html
Measuring Atmosheric C02, at https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001983.html
Build Dykes to Beat Global Warming, at https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001983.html

Humane Society and Japanese Whalers Argue Over Pregnant Minke Whales

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“Humane Society International (HSI) has reviewed the Japanese reports from their most recent 2006/07 whale hunt in Antarctic waters and found that over half those killed were pregnant.

Of the 505 Antarctic minke whales killed in Antarctic waters last summer, 262 of them were pregnant females, while one of the three fin whales killed was also pregnant.

“These are gruesome statistics that the Japanese Government dresses up as science”, said HSI’s Nicola Beynon.

HSI reviewed the reports in preparation for our court case against the Japanese whalers, which resumes in the Federal Court of Australia this morning.

At today’s hearing we expect the Court to set a date for the full hearing. The full hearing will be to determine whether Japanese whalers are in breach of Australian law when they hunt whales in the Australian Whale Sanctuary in Antarctica and whether the Court will issue an injunction for the hunt to be stopped. HSI will ask for the final hearing to be held as soon as possible before the hunt starts up again this summer. It has been 3 years since HSI launched the case and many hurdles have been overcome to get to this point.

“It horrifies Australians to know that pregnant humpback whales breeding in the warm waters off Australia this winter will be targeted by the Japanese hunters in Antarctic waters this Christmas”, Ms Beynon said.

Japan has issued its whaling company with permits to kill 935 minke whales, 50 fin whales and 50 humpback whales in Antarctic waters this summer and, based on their past hunting grounds, we expect 90% of the hunt to be conducted within the Australian Whale Sanctuary, and a large proportion of the females to be pregnant.

HSI will ask the Federal Court to order a stop to the carnage in the Australian Whale Sanctuary once and for all.

End Media entitled ‘Japan killed 263 pregnant whales in Antarctic waters – HSI back in the Federal Court’
dated 24th July.

Japanese whalers respond:

“The Humane Society International (Australia) demonstrates its ignorance and lack of understanding of marine science with its latest claims, the Institute of Cetacean Research in Tokyo said today.

“Humane Society is ignorant, displays a unique lack of understanding of whale management and, unfortunately, plays on an equally ignorant media to manipulate the Australian and New Zealand public,” the Director General of the ICR, Mr Minoru Morimoto, said today.

“It is widely well known that the Antarctic minke whale population has increased more than the pre-commercial whaling era and is currently in a very healthy condition, with over 90 percent of the mature female whales becoming pregnant year to year. This consistent reproduction provides strong reassurance the population will easily sustain an annual commercial quota.”

Of the 286 mature females, 262 or 91.6 percent were pregnant. The remaining 24 were non-pregnant mature minke whales.

The research employs a random sampling method and the sampling of pregnant whales is taken into account under the JARPA II research program, in line with the International Whaling Commission’s Revised Management Procedure, which is a risk-averse method for calculating sustainable catch quotas.

In 1990, the International Whaling Commission’s Scientific Committee agreed an abundance estimate of 760,000 Antarctic minke whales. That figure is currently under review but even if the abundance estimate is lower, the stock condition is very healthy and the taking of 850 minke whales poses no risk.

The breakdown of Antarctic minke whales sampled in Japan’s latest research program is outlined below.
• Total: 503 (Male: 154; Female: 349)
• Immature, non-reproducing females: 63; mature females 286 (Pregnant mature females 262 or 91.6 percent; non-pregnant mature females, 24 or 8.4 percent.)

End media release from the Institute of Cetacean Research in Tokyo entitled HUMANE SOCIETY DEMONSTRATES IGNORANCE dated 25th July 2007

Lewis crofters fight wind farm

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Scotland’s Hebridean Isle of Lewis is a beautiful place, noted for its wetland habitats and Golden Eagles. The Standing Stones of Callanish are an ancient monument erected around 3000 years ago, hewn from billion year old rock. By 1857 peat had grown across the site to a height of 6 feet, and was cleared. This is evidence for climate change. When the stones were erected the climate was too dry and warm for peat to grow. By 800 BC peat had been growing for 500 years. Lewis is now a place where evidence of past climate change meets the environmental consequences of concerns over current warming, in the form of wind energy. The UK has only built 200 miles of motorway in the past 10 years, yet hundreds of miles of road could be built on Lewis just to service wind farms.

The Scottish Wildlife Trust released this PR on 2nd February 2007:

World Wetlands Day plea to leave Lewis alone
The Scottish Wildlife Trust (SWT) on World Wetlands Day (Friday 2 February 2007) urged the public to help prevent irreversible damage to one of Scotland’s most important wetland sites. Proposed plans for an industrial scale wind farm on the Isle of Lewis are being considered that will destroy some of the most extensive and intact areas of blanket bog on the planet. Objections to the proposal must be lodged by Monday 5 February 2007. In December 2004, SWT objected to the installation of 234 turbines and construction of 104 miles of road on the Isle of Lewis. Despite huge outcry from environmental organisations and the local community, developers (Lewis Wind Power: British Energy/AMEC) resubmitted plans just before Christmas 2006 (12 December 2006) for 181 wind turbines each 140 metres high and 88 miles of road network on an area designated for its special wildlife. Stuart Brooks, SWT’s Head of Conservation said: “While the Scottish Wildlife Trust supports the use of renewable energy alternatives, this is the last place the Scottish Executive should be considering an application. Lewis is one of the best sites for wildlife in Britain.” “It is not just the wind turbines that are the problem. More lasting environmental impacts will be caused by the infrastructure to support the wind farm such as cabling underground, turbine foundations, roads and electrical substations. Peat takes thousands of years to mature and is an effective mechanism for fixing and storing carbon. If peat bogs are damaged they can release this stored carbon as carbon dioxide adding to global warming.” He continued: “Lewis peatlands has been awarded the highest levels of protection through the Ramsar Convention and European Habitat Regulations. Damaging them in this way contravenes and undermines the legislation set up to protect them. Should this application go ahead, the development will have significant impacts on wildlife particular birds such as the golden plover and the dunlin that breed on the site. On World Wetland Days, we are asking people to support our objection to this proposal by sending an objection letter or email to the Scottish Executive.”

Now more than 700 Lewis crofters face a court battle to keep their land as they fight plans for one of Scotland’s biggest proposed wind farms.

A note from Dina:

The indigenous people of Lewis have a specific and very emotive attachment to their land, which is also the common grazings on which Lewis Wind Power plans to build their 181 monoliths etc. We also now have a third wind farm application on the desks of the Scottish Executive, to add to the LWP scheme, and the Eisgein one for 55 turbines on the Eisgein estate in South Lochs. The Pairc wind farm application has just been submitted by Scottish and Southern Energy, for another 57 gigantic (145 metres) wind turbines, also in South Lochs. There are now applications submitted to planning for around 300 wind turbines on this island, it is an abomination, and an insult to the integrity and honesty of particularly the rural communities of Lewis, who would suffer if any of these projects were consented, but whose voices, united in protest and opposition, have been silenced whenever the officials found it possible to do so. But now the crofters, whose land is required to build the LWP scheme have spoken out loud and strong, and they will not flinch from that position no matter what is thrown at them!

Regards

Dina

More links:

Crofters’ legal vow on wind farm

Wind farm ‘is threat to eagles’

Wind farm ‘hits eagle numbers’

Radiative forcing due to land use change in southwest Australia

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Having seen Ian Mott’s note on land change, I though I would post this paper suggesting that climate models and therefore the IPCC underestimate the effects of land use change on climate:

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, D09117, doi:10.1029/2006JD007505, 2007

Observational estimates of radiative forcing due to land use change in southwest Australia

Abstract

Radiative forcing associated with land use change is largely derived from global circulation models (GCM), and the accuracy of these estimates depends on the robustness of the vegetation characterization used in the GCMs. In this study, we use observations from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on board the Terra satellite to report top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing values associated with clearing of native vegetation for agricultural purposes in southwest Australia. Over agricultural areas, observations show consistently higher shortwave fluxes at the TOA compared to native vegetation, especially during the time period between harvest and planting. Estimates using CERES observations show that over a specific area originally covered by native vegetation, replacement of half the area by croplands results in a diurnally averaged shortwave radiative forcing of approximately −7 W m−2. GCM-derived estimates for areas with 30% or more croplands range from −1 to −2 W m−2 compared to observational estimate of −4.2 W m−2, thus significantly underestimating radiative forcing due to land use change by a factor of 2 or more. Two potential reasons for this underestimation are incorrect specification of the multiyear land use change scenario and the inaccurate prescription of seasonal cycles of crops in GCMs.

Received 12 May 2006; accepted 22 November 2006; published 15 May 2007.

Keywords: Australia; land use change; radiative forcing.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JD007505.shtml