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One of the essential prerequisites for the IPCC case for extended global warming is the claim that we face an extended Holocene because orbital geometry now is similar to the 400KY (Stage 11) interglacial which lasted for 28, 000 years.

Based on the paper by Berger and Loutre (2003) it is claimed that the extraordinarily long Stage 11 interglacial period resulted from the low orbital eccentricity at the time, and now we have similar eccentricity and should therefore expect an extended Holocene. (IPCC TS 6.4 1.5)

It is reported that “It is very unlikely that the earth would naturally enter another ice age for at least 30 000 years” (IPCC TS 6.2.4 “Robust Findings”)

This position is completely without merit.

An analysis of FIG 1. below shows the orbital forcing during the 400KY precedent compared to the present configuration and it can be seen that we are very close now to the tipping point like that which led Stage 11 into the following ice age.

FIG.1 QUINN, LEVINE, RAYMO ET AL ORBITAL GEOMETRY VS CLIMATE
(AA) Projection at present insolation, (BB) Projection of Glaciation, (X) Paillard

The position (X) shows the insolation maximum at 427KY which triggered the Stage 11deglaciation. (Paillard 1998) The following small dip in insolation was not sufficient to reverse the warming trend . “The Interglacial thus lasts an additional precessional cycle, yielding a total duration of 28 000 years.” (IPCC 6.4.1.5)

This is the so called precedent for an extended Holocene. This is the reason given by IPCC for the “Robust Finding” that it is very unlikely that the earth would enter another ice age for at least 30 000 years. But as shown in FIG.1 there is no such change in insolation now and Solar Forcing is in rapid decline.

Projecting present Solar forcing (insolation) (AA) back to the 400KY precedent we intercept at exactly 400KY which corresponds to the collapse of the Stage 11 interglacial climate as it enters the following ice age.
The collapse of the Stage 11 interglacial occurs when the insolation decline is similar to today.

From this analysis, based on the Solar Forcing from present global geometry which has been accepted as the external signal for climate, the contention that it is very unlikely the Earth would naturally enter another Ice Age for at least 30 000 years is unsafe.

There is good reason to expect the imminent termination of the interglacial because of the coincident action of 3 major cyclic processes.

1. Insolation in rapid decline similar to the 400KY precedent.

2. We are near the end of the nominal 100KY glaciation cycle.

3. The present interglacial is near the average age for termination.

We are also witnessing some major natural processes which occur at the end of each interglacial such as the slow down of the MOC and polar ice melt.

It is time to plan for the coming Ice Age.

Peter Harris
September 2007

This article ‘Ahmadinejad: The New Boogeyman’ compares ‘Holocaust denial’ to global warming denial:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denies the Holocaust. Let me ask this provocative question: so what?

Of course, I understand that people have a visceral reaction to that claim. It is grossly untrue, offensive and ignorant. But we are also told how dangerous Ahmadinejad is because he doesn’t believe in the Holocaust. I fail to see that connection.

There are countless people all across the world that deny many things that are patently true — and we don’t go to war with them over it. Senator Inhofe (R-OK) denies global warming. As far as I know we are not planning on invading Oklahoma over it………

The writer seems to be ignorant of the fact that whilst the Holocaust actually happened, the global warming catastrophe is a computer modelled prediction, not a fact.

Climate change ‘a bigger threat than terrorism’

CLIMATE change, not terrorism, will be the main security issue of the century, with potential to cause death and destruction on an unprecedented scale, Australia’s top policeman believes.

In a surprise foray into the politics of global warming, Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Keelty described how climate refugees “in their millions” could create a national security emergency for Australia.

His provocative comments, made in a speech in Adelaide last night, are likely to be diplomatically sensitive after he described a scenario in which China was unable to feed its vast population.

Law enforcement agencies would struggle to cope with global warming’s “potential to wreak havoc, cause more deaths and pose national security issues like we’ve never seen before”, Mr Keelty said.

“It is anticipated the world will experience severe extremes in weather patterns, from rising global temperatures to rising sea levels,” he warned.

“We could see a catastrophic decline in the availability of fresh water. Crops could fail, disease could be rampant and flooding might be so frequent that people, en masse, would be on the move.

“Even if only some and not all of this occurs, climate change is going to be the security issue of the 21st century.”

Read more.

The Associated Press article ‘Rising Seas Likely to Flood U.S. History’ is criticised here.

The article begins:

Ultimately, rising seas will likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Va., as well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into orbit, many climate scientists are predicting.
In about a century, some of the places that make America what it is may be slowly erased.

Global warming—through a combination of melting glaciers, disappearing ice sheets and warmer waters expanding—is expected to cause oceans to rise by one meter, or about 39 inches. It will happen regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases, several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation.

Rising waters will lap at the foundations of old money Wall Street and the new money towers of Silicon Valley. They will swamp the locations of big city airports and major interstate highways.

Storm surges worsened by sea level rise will flood the waterfront getaways of rich politicians—the Bushes’ Kennebunkport and John Edwards’ place on the Outer Banks. And gone will be many of the beaches in Texas and Florida favored by budget-conscious students on Spring Break.

That’s the troubling outlook projected by coastal maps reviewed by The Associated Press. The maps, created by scientists at the University of Arizona, are based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Few of the more than two dozen climate experts interviewed disagree with the one-meter projection. Some believe it could happen in 50 years, others say 100, and still others say 150.

Sea level rise is “the thing that I’m most concerned about as a scientist,” says Benjamin Santer, a climate physicist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.

“We’re going to get a meter and there’s nothing we can do about it,” said University of Victoria climatologist Andrew Weaver, a lead author of the February report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Paris. “It’s going to happen no matter what—the question is when.”

Sea level rise “has consequences about where people live and what they care about,” said Donald Boesch, a University of Maryland scientist who has studied the issue. “We’re going to be into this big national debate about what we protect and at what cost.”

Critics included John Christy:

Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville, stated that the AP mischaracterized his views on sea level in the article promoting climate fears a hundred years from now.

“[My] discussion [with the AP reporter Seth Borenstein] was primarily about the storm surges which come from hurricanes – that’s the real vulnerability. The sea level is rising around 1 inch per decade, but sea level is like any other climate parameter – its either rising or falling all the time. To me, 16 inches per century is not a significant problem to deal with. But since storm surges of 15 to 30 feet occur in 6 hours, any preventive strategy, like an extra 3 feet of elevation, would be helpful,” Christy wrote to the Inhofe EPW Press blog.

“Thinking that legislation can change sea level is hubris. I did a calculation on what 1000 new nuclear power plants operating by 2020 would do for the IPCC best guess in the year 2100. The answer is 1.4 cm – about half an inch (if you accept the IPCC projection A1B for the base case.) Also, there doesn’t seem to be any acceleration of the slow trend,” Christy explained.

Science magazine 21st September:

Extracts from: Panel Gives U.S. Program Mixed Grades

An expert panel says the Bush Administration deserves “a pat on the back” for advancing the science of climate change. But the scientists assembled by the National Academies’ National Research Council (NRC) have serious concerns about the management, funding, and emphasis of the $1.7-billion-a-year Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). President George H. W. Bush created the U.S. Global Change Research Program in 1990 to bring under one umbrella the government’s efforts to understand climate change. In 2002, his son reshuffled the climate deck to create CCSP. Last week, the NRC panel took the first outside look at that program and concluded, says chair V. Ramanathan, an atmospheric scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California, that its efforts to understand how and why climate has changed and to make predictions are “proceeding well.”

Ramanathan says he’s troubled by the program’s limited success in “assessing [climate change] impacts on human well-being and adaptation capacities.” Those assessments would require reliable forecasts of climate change at the regional if not the local level, Ramanathan notes, a capability the world’s climate modelers are still struggling with. But gauging impacts on humans and figuring out how humans might adapt to climate change will take far more than the $20 million per year now spent within the program on social science studies, the committee said. It will also take better communication between the program and business interests, other agencies, and the general public. For starters, 21 synthesis and assessment reports were due from CCSP by now, but only two have been delivered.