Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Opinion

Defining the Scientific Sceptics (Part 10): Karl Popper

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The genuine rationalist does not think that he or anyone else is in possession of the truth; nor does he think that mere criticism as such helps us achieve new ideas. But he does think that, in the sphere of ideas, only critical discussion can help us sort the wheat from the chaff. He is well aware that acceptance or rejection of an idea is never a purely rational matter; but he thinks that only critical discussion can give us the maturity to see an idea from more and more sides and to make a correct judgement of it.
   –Karl Popper, All Life is Problem Solving, 1999

via Benny Pieser

Record Warm Sea Surface Temperatures

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Sea Surface Temperatures Spencer v2SCIENTISTS at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) recently announced that the average global sea surface temperatures in July was 62.6 degrees F making it hotter than the previous record of 1998 and the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880.

The record average is from satellite based measurements and was initially disputed by some sceptics including climate scientists Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Huntsville. Dr Spencer initially attributed the error to a data processing blunder at NOAA, but has since conceded the blunder in the calculations was his.   [Read more…] about Record Warm Sea Surface Temperatures

Sunspots Just Part of The Story: Fred Singer

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CLIMATE modelers seem puzzled that small fluctuations in total solar irradiance (TSI) appear to have large influence on the climate. 

They feel it necessary to take recourse to complicated mechanisms. 

For example, Gerald Meehl of the US-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and his team have been able to calculate how the extremely small variations in TSI bring about a comparatively significant change in the system “Atmosphere-Ocean”.  [1]

They try to explain how ‘sunspot frequency’ has an unexpectedly strong influence on cloud formation and precipitation. 

One suggested mechanism is a solar-UV enhancement of stratospheric ozone, leading to circulation changes in the troposphere, a possibility explored earlier by British researcher Joanna Haigh.  Another complicated mechanism suggested is increased heating and evaporation from cloud-free regions of the ocean, with the additional moisture transported into the equatorial zone, followed by some kind of positive feedback.

But the answer may really be very simple.  [Read more…] about Sunspots Just Part of The Story: Fred Singer

Global Cooling has Begun: Bob Foster

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Darwin Part 1 Oct 05 049 blogBIG things are happening Sun-wise.  The longer Solar Cycle 24 is delayed, the weaker should it be.  Thus, it is more likely day by day – while Cycle 24 remains in deferral – that we are entering the next Little Ice Age cold period (Landscheidt Minimum1). 

In 2004, NASA predicted an extra-powerful Cycle 24 starting in 2006, far stronger than modest Cycle 23 – thus supplementing IPCC’s projected people-driven warming.  As you might expect, there are very few people outside the ‘mainstream’ consensus policed by Royal Society, IPCC, NASA – and propagated by the great journals Science and Nature – with the expertise to challenge NASA on this esoteric topic. But happily, there are some. 

The collective angular momentum of the giant outer planets drives the Sun’s highly-irregular orbit about the centre-of-mass of the solar system (as Newton knew); and the timing (albeit, not yet the magnitude) of consequential solar variability can therefore be predicted.  By “variability” I don’t mean in total solar irradiance; because TSI varies only by fractions of a percent.  I am referring to the outflow of magnetised plasma from the Sun – which can vary by orders of magnitude at timings from quotidian to millennial.   [Read more…] about Global Cooling has Begun: Bob Foster

Warnings about Bushfire Warnings: A Note from Roger Underwood

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AWSOME_topA PERSISTENT complaint from victims of the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria was that they had “received no warning”. Over and again we heard statements like this: “There was no fire anywhere, but the next thing, we had fire all around us. There was no word of warning, and we never stood a chance”.

This issue has since been highlighted by the Royal Commission in its Interim Report, and is being taken to heart by fire authorities all over Australia. In Western Australia, for example, the Fire and Emergency Service (FESA) has rolled out a new warning arrangement based on mobile phones, and has carried out a substantial and well-publicised test in a Perth Hills suburb. It was said (by FESA) to have been a great success.

This is a delicate subject, because I don’t want to sound disrespectful to people who lost their lives or suffered in the Victorian fires. I realise that many people are perplexed by the way they were engulfed by fire and caught by surprise. I understand the desire of authorities to get warning systems in place. Officials realise that a failure to deal with this issue in future fires will come back to haunt them if complaints are made to Royal Commissions, Coronial inquiries and the media.

However, the downsides, weaknesses and dangers in bushfire warning systems must be properly understood.  [Read more…] about Warnings about Bushfire Warnings: A Note from Roger Underwood