Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Opinion

Environmentalism Needs to be Tolerant of Scepticism: Freeman Dyson

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“THERE is a worldwide secular religion which we may call environmentalism, holding that we are stewards of the earth, that despoiling the planet with waste products of our luxurious living is a sin, and that the path of righteousness is to live as frugally as possible. The ethics of environmentalism are being taught to children in kindergartens, schools, and colleges all over the world.

“Environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading secular religion. And the ethics of environmentalism are fundamentally sound. Scientists and economists can agree with Buddhist monks and Christian activists that ruthless destruction of natural habitats is evil and careful preservation of birds and butterflies is good. The worldwide community of environmentalists—most of whom are not scientists—holds the moral high ground, and is guiding human societies toward a hopeful future. Environmentalism, as a religion of hope and respect for nature, is here to stay. This is a religion that we can all share, whether or not we believe that global warming is harmful.

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No ‘Happy New Year’ for Koalas in the Central Murray Valley

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THE Victorian Premier, John Brumby, has waited until New Year’s Eve to announce the end of timber harvesting and grazing in 83,000 hectares of red gum forest in the Central Murray Valley in north western Victoria, Australia.

The creation of new national parks was a 2006 election promise to secure inner-city votes but is based on a lie – on the false belief that by declaring an area a national park you can somehow “save it”. 

In reality the red gums of the mid-Murray need water and thinning and a national park declaration will achieve neither.    The national park declaration will simply increase the risk of wild fires and the death of koalas.

The Rivers and Red Gum Alliance, representing local forest users, provided the government with a well research plan whereby 104,000 hectares could be managed under the principles of the internationally recognised Ramsar convention.  

As Peter Newman, chairman of the Alliance, explained yesterday, “The forests exist in a highly modified landscape surrounded by farmland and need active management to maintain forest health.  This includes fuel reduction through controlled grazing and thinning of the red gum trees to keep the forest open and in a healthy state.” 

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Dishonest Advertising on the ETS: AEF Media Release

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GetUp’s global warming television ads (to air today) are dishonest and inaccurate, according to Dr Jennifer Marohasy, Chair of the Australian Environment Foundation.

“For all sorts of reasons a number of groups, of which Internet campaigners GetUp.org.au are one, are pretending that the Rudd Government’s proposed Emissions Trading Scheme is a minor 5 to15 percent adjustment to our way of life”.

“In fact, the government’s ETS will reduce the amount of energy available to every man; woman and child currently living in the country by an extraordinary 35 percent, absent the discovery and implementation of an unknown source of carbon free energy in the next ten years”.

Dr Marohasy said that this would be the equivalent of closing down all of Australia’s manufacturing and half its rural industries.

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Global Warming is Over: Don Easterbrook

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IN 2001 geologist Don Easterbook predicted the beginning of a period of global cooling.  At a recent meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco he again predicted a period of cooling based in part on correlation between past glacial fluctuations, his area of expertise, with periods of low solar irradiance and changes in the Pacific Ocean: 

“GLOBAL, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations.  The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 levels.  The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years).  Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern.  Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998.  All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.

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Global Warming Since 1958

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I know it’s a tough job – but let’s just check the International Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) iconic, widely-quoted conclusion* and parse its meaning:

“Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” 

How should one interpret this ex cathedra declaration to the faithful?

IPCC helpfully defines ‘very likely’ as ‘90-99% certain’, but they don’t tell us how they reached such well-defined certainty. 

What remarkable unanimity! 

Just how many and whom did they poll?

IPCC doesn’t define the word ‘most.’  We may assume it means anything between 51 and 99%.  Quite a spread. 

But a footnote  informs us that solar forcing is less than 10% of anthropogenic [0.12/ 1.6 W/m2]; so ‘most’ must be closer to 99% than to 51%.

OK; let’s check out the data since 1958.  But we don’t want to rely on contaminated surface data – which IPCC likely used – although they omitted to say so. 

Atmospheric data were readily available to the IPCC in the CCSP-SAP-1.1 report (Fig 3a, p.54; convening lead author John Lanzante, NOAA), with independent analyses by Hadley Centre and NOAA that agree well.  And further, according to GH models, atmospheric trends should be larger than surface temperature trends.

1958 – 2005:  Total warming of +0.5 C  (But how much of that is anthropogenic?)
1958 – 1976:  Cooling
1976 – 1977:  Sudden jump of +0.5 C  (Cannot be due to GHG.)
1977 – 1997:  No detectable trend
1998 – 1999:  El Nino spike
2000 – 2001:  No detectable trend
2001 – 2003:  Sudden jump of +0.3 C  (Cannot be due to GHG.)
2003 – present: No trend, maybe even slight cooling

In conclusion: The IPCC’s ‘most’ is not sustained by observations; the human contribution is very likely only 10% or even less.

By Fred Singer, who lives in Arlington, Virginia, and holds a B.E.E. in Electrical engineering from Ohio State University and an A.M. and PhD in Physics from Princeton University

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*IPCC Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, November 2007

Photograph of Fred Singer taken in New York by Jennifer Marohasy in March 2008.

This note is from SEPP Science Editorial #17 (December 27, 08), ‘Keeping the IPCC honest’ http://www.sepp.org/

Merry Christmas & Beware the White Ibis

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IT is just two more sleeps until Christmas. 

Down under, that is here in Australia, it is summer.  Right along the east coast the weather is usually warm, often sunny, and it’s a time when extended families enjoy picnics and barbeques together outside. 

A native Australian bird, the Australian White Ibis, Threskiornis spinicollis, has learnt to take advantage of this feasting and can often be found perched on the edge of these gatherings waiting for the opportunity to swoop through – once collecting a large piece of quiche from my plastic plate. 

Interestingly the Australian White Ibis were once considered something of a novelty in Australia’s cities.  Indeed less than 10 years ago breeding colonies were encouraged including at Lake Gillawarna – an artificial wetland in Bankstown in western Sydney.  This lake is now home to the largest nesting colony in eastern NSW and possibly the entire state. 

The colony was established in 2001 with five nests, by 2002 there were 120 nests and by 2003 the colony boasted 860 nests. 

But, by 2004, the residents of Bankstown were fed-up – and the local city council developed a management plan to try and reduce numbers.  The management plan went as far as the pruning of horizontal branches of Coral trees and Casuarina to limit the birds nesting opportunities. 

I can only conclude that we really are a fickle lot – loving the Australian White Ibis only as long as it is somewhat contained.

If there is any message in this little story, just two sleeps before Christmas, it is perhaps be careful what you wish for!

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The picture of an Australian White Ibis in Redfern, inner city Sydney, was taken by Jennifer Marohasy in November 2008.