Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Opinion

Better Planning for Extreme Floods Possible: A Note from Stewart Franks

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DESPITE increased understanding of a number of different climate processes and their impact on a range of different timescales, this knowledge is not being used to inform planning and decision making. This is because long-term climate risk is often viewed only in statistical terms.

For instance, engineering techniques for estimating flood risk, where records exist, are largely based on simple statistics of their historic occurrence rather than on any real understanding of the processes that actually cause them.

In essence, if we have 100 years of flood record, then the largest flood measured represents, more or less, the hundred year flood level. This hundred year flood level is probably the most important of hydrological statistics in terms of its use in planning management. It is the yardstick by which decisions are made.

The problem with a simple statistical representation of risk is that it implies a static climate – the expected flood risk is equally likely in any year, irrespective of the actual climate processes that may or may not be dominating at that particular time. If this were the case, we would expect to see an equal spread of floods throughout our historical records. In Australia and in fact many other parts of the world, this is not so.

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The Humble Axe and Chainsaw: A Note from Ian Mott

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CHEAP, simple to use and extremely effective fire management tools that are owned and operated by almost every householder who is exposed to the risk of wildfire are the humble axe and the chainsaw. But the various native vegetation “protection” laws around Australia have effectively outlawed their use, even in the most extreme emergencies.

Indeed I have lost count of the number of published images of the Victorian fires that provide clear and damning evidence of our legislator’s role in the manslaughter of so many innocent Australians. Almost every image of a burned out home also exhibits the unmistakable signature of ill-informed social engineers who have abused their legislative powers to compel, what is now clearly proven to be, one of the most destructive social changes ever forced upon a minority community.

The facts clearly establish the case that the Victorian and other state governments around the country have made a direct contribution to the character, scale and intensity of the wildfires, and the death and destruction they have caused. They made critical choices as to the form and content of seemingly unrelated legislation which has banned the use of some of our most readily available and effective fire risk management tools.

And they have not just implemented that legislation in a manner that has prevented efforts to improve fire management and lower the associated risks. These people have established a policy architecture that has actively discouraged, on pain of penalty, rural people from preventing the state sponsored deterioration of fire management conditions and all the increase in risks associated with it.

In the days when large fires were fought and defeated by men and women without machinery, pumps, water bombers or GPS, the axe was an essential tool for reducing the height of the fire face at key defensive positions. My own father, the late T.R. Mott, spent most of the 50 years of volunteer firefighting, that earned him an Australia Medal, carrying the day with axe and hoe.

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Muzzled Australians Gain a Voice on ETS

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The Australian Environment Foundation today launched an online petition opposing the federal government’s “Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme”. The petition will eventually be presented to Parliament by Dr Dennis Jensen, MHR for Tangney.Oppose the ETS

AEF Chair Dr Jennifer Marohasy said there is a strong need for the petition because none of the major political parties are offering an alternative to carbon trading.

“To quote John from Cheltenham, Victoria, one of the early signatories, ‘At last a chance to protest, a chance to be heard, a chance for the millions of Australians who have not fallen for this propaganda to speak out’.”

Dr Marohasy said that many Australians oppose this scheme because they know it will cost them and their families dearly, sending Australian industries and Australian jobs overseas. It is flawed and won’t have a measurable impact on CO2 levels or global temperature.

“As Chris from Roma in Queensland says, it is ‘Unnecessary and impotent’.

“That’s why even before the petition is launched we have almost 1,000 signatures.”

Dr Marohasy said there were clear themes that emerged from comments left on the petition, and rather than speak for the signatories, they should speak for themselves.

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Changing Temperatures Likely to Impact Frogs

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Image:Infrafrenata1.jpgWHEN news headlines simultaneously suggested that both warm weather and cold weather might adversely affect frog populations, there was some mocking from climate change sceptics. [1, 2]

But given the extraordinary impact of the pathogenic fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, on frog populations worldwide, and the pathogen’s apparently relatively narrow temperature optima, a small change in temperature may have a significant impact on local frog populations. [3]

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1. Climate threat to Nordic amphibians, January 23, 2009, http://www.norden.org/webb/news/news.asp?id=8358&lang=6

2. Cold weather hits The Lizard wildlife, January 10, 2009,
http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co.uk/news/cornwall_news/4036969.Cold_weather_hits_The_Lizard_wildlife/ 

3.  Threat Abatement Plan, Infection of Amphibians with Chytrid fungus resulting in Chytridiomycosis, Australian Department of Environment and Heritage, 2006, http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/publications/tap/chytrid.html
“In culture B. dendrobatidis grows slowly at 6°C, develops most rapidly at 23°C but dies if kept at temperatures above 29°C.”

Picture of the Giant White-lipped Tree Frog via Neil Hewett. http://www.ccwild.com/index.html

No Balance in Environmental Reporting at The New York Times: John Coleman

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AT his popular New York Times blog, environmental journalist Andrew Revkin asks the question “Can a scientists be a Citizen, Too?”  But what Mr Revkin is really asking is: should scientists become involved in advocacy?

Mr Revkin provides the case of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Chief, James Hansen, as a specific example and suggests that because the issue of global warming has such “big consequences for society” Dr Hansen is almost obliged to become involved in politics.

I disagree.  

In the following note, Mr Coleman goes on to explain that reporting on global warming at Mr Revkin’s newspaper, The New York Times, is unfortunately more advocacy than journalism.  

“DID advocacy Journalism first get out of hand during the civil rights movement or the Vietnam war?  It seems to me it began to sweep the newspapers and TV in the 1960’s and hasn’t been arrested since.  I have little expectation that in the difficult times reform will take hold, but I will here and now hope for it.

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