Based on the 130 years of data, Baker predicts that the current solar cycle, which reached a minimum in 2007, will continue a bit longer. In fact, he says, “there could be a 100-year minimum in solar activity,” meaning much of Australia could experience a prolonged drought. Read more here.
News
New Report on Australian Rangelands
The rangelands cover some 81% of Australia and are popularly known as ‘the outback’.
A new report, ‘Rangelands 2008 — Taking the pulse’, is the first time that disparate datasets have been brought together at a national and regional scale to report change in Australia’s rangelands.
The hard copy version of Rangelands 2008 — Taking the pulse includes a CD with a hypertext-linked version of the complete report plus summarised information for each of the 52 bioregions wholly or partly within the rangelands. Copies can be ordered from Land and Water Australia at http://products.lwa.gov.au/products/pn21387.
The Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts has published a booklet entitled Australia’s Rangelands 2008 — At a Glance which provides highlights from the complete report as well as the CD above. This booklet can be obtained from the DEWHA Community Information Unit.
Great Barrier Reef Looking Good.
The Greens reckon the Great Barrier Reef is a casualty of Labor’s lower-than-expected emissions reduction target, but for those who work among the corals, forecasts aren’t so bleak. Read more here.
Climate Modellers Acknowledge Important Role of Oceans
IT is not a new paper, it was being discussed back in July by Roger Pielke Sr, but the paper by Compo and Sardeshmukhj was only recently brought to my attention and as an example of the use of the IPCC’s computer models to explain warming without reference to greenhouse gases. That’s right, a peer reviewed paper based on simulation modelling that generates the observed warming of the last half-century but without reference to the ever increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The paper, entitled ‘Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming’, suggests that it is warming of the oceans that has driven warming of the land since the 1970s. But it does not tell us what has warmed the oceans!
The paper concludes: “In summary, our results emphasize the significant role of remote oceanic influences, rather than the direct local effect of anthropogenic radiative forcing [Greenhouse gases] , in the recent continental warming. They suggest that the recent oceanic warming has caused the continents to warm through a different set of mechanisms than usually identified with the global impacts of SST[sea surface temperature] changes. It has increased the humidity of the atmosphere, altered the atmospheric vertical motion and associated cloud fields, and perturbed the longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes at the continental surface.”
Well known Australian sceptic, Bill Kininmonth, has made this point many times: that the tropical oceans are the main source of energy in the form of latent heat in the evaporation of water vapour and as the tropic oceans warm they exchange more energy with the atmosphere; more energy is transported pole ward to warm the middle and high latitude land areas.
So, it seems, the climate modellers are at last catching on.
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Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming by Gilbert P. Compo and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Climate Dynamics, 2008. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbert.p.compo/CompoSardeshmukh2007a.pdf
Why the EU Backpedalled in Poznan
There are… growing doubts about the long-term viability of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. Read more here.
Complaint Against ABC Upheld
Australia’s Independent Complaints Review Panel (ICRP) has upheld a complaint made against a segment on the 7.30 Report, titled “Pulp mill could taint catch: fishing industry”, broadcast on 5 June 2007 and later made available on ABC Online. Read more here.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.