Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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IPCC Commissioned Report Damning of IPCC Processes and Procedures

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THE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a review of its processes and procedures with a report handed down in October 2010, but only just now made publically available at its website.[1]

I’ve only just started to examine the 100 plus page document, but my first impressions are that finally we have an official report that may impose a level of accountability on the IPCC.

OK. I’m expecting too much!

Well at least the report highlights past errors and acknowledges that they have been significant.

The section on “Evaluation of evidence and treatment of uncertainty” includes comment that:

Authors reported high confidence in statements for which there is little evidence, such as the widely quoted statement that agricultural yields in Africa might decline by up to 50 percent by 2020. Moreover, the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be disputed. In these cases the impression was often left, incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented…

Assigning probabilities to an outcome makes little sense unless researchers are confident in the underlying evidence…

The Working Group II Summary for Policy makers in the Fourth Assessment Report contains many vague statements of ‘high confidence’ that are not supported sufficiently in the literature, not put in perspective, or are difficult to refute. The Committee believes it is not appropriate to assign probabilities to such statements.

[Read more…] about IPCC Commissioned Report Damning of IPCC Processes and Procedures

Save the Carbon, Harvest the Forest?

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Government policies across the world generally favour locking-up forests for carbon sequestration. But a new study by the NSW Government’s Department of Primary Industries suggests: Total greenhouse gas emissions abatement and carbon storage from a multiple use production forest exceed the carbon storage benefit of a conservation forest.

The report stresses that to quantify the climate change impacts of forestry, the entire forestry system should be considered: the carbon dynamics of the forest, the life cycle of forest products; the substitution benefit of biomass and wood products, the risk of leakage resulting from deforestation and forest degradation in other countries.

The study compares the overall greenhouse gas balance for two coastal harvested versus two conservation forests. The accounting method used shows that most of the savings for the harvested forests is in the area of “product substitution”; the idea being that substitution of wood through the use of cement, steel and aluminium creates emissions.

If you are interested in the crooked business of carbon accounting, or looking to justify the harvesting of forests for more fashionable reasons than economics, the report is worth a read:

Harvested forests provide the greatest ongoing greenhouse gas benefits. By Fabiano Ximenes et al. NSW Government, June 2012.
http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/434643/Harvested-forests-provide-the-greatest-ongoing-greenhouse-gas-benefits.pdf

Away with Rio+20: The Voice of the Peasant

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‘GOVERNMENTS from all over the world will meet in Río de Janeiro, Brasil from June 20-22 2012, to supposedly commemorate 20 years since the “Earth Summit”, the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, that established for the first time a global agenda for “sustainable development”. During this summit, in 1992, three international conventions were adopted: the Convention on Biological Diversity, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, and the Convention to Fight Desertification. Each of these promised to initiate a series of actions destined to protect the planet and all of the life on it, and to allow all human beings to enjoy a life of dignity.

At that time , many social organizations congratulated and supported these new conventions with hope. Twenty years later, we see the real causes of environmental, economic, and social deterioration continuing without being attacked. Worse still, we are profoundly alarmed that the next meeting in June will serve to deepen neoliberal policies and processes of capitalist expansion, concentration, and exclusion that today have enveloped us in an environmental, economic, and social crisis of grave proportions. Beneath the deceptive and badly intentioned term “green economy”, new forms of environmental contamination and destruction are now rolled out along with new waves of privatization, monopolization, and expulsion from our lands and territories.

La Via Campesina will mobilize for this event, representing the voice of the peasant in the global debate and defending a different path to development that is based on the well being of all, that guarantees food for all, that protects and guarantees that the commons and natural resources are put to use to provide a good life for everyone and not to meet the needs for accumulation of a few.
[Read more…] about Away with Rio+20: The Voice of the Peasant

Australian Universities: A Portrait of Decline

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Dear Friend,

Despite that salutation, I can’t be found on Facebook nor can you follow me on Twitter, BUT you CAN read my book:

Australian Universities: A Portrait of Decline

which lays bare the corruption of our institutions of higher learning as a result of 20 years of rampant managerialism, baseless education theory and overt government interference.

As part of the education sector, you owe it to yourself and your students to revive the system while there are still signs of life.

Please use the link below to download your FREE digital copy. Feel free to pass this email on to anyone you know who might also be interested.

http://www.australianuniversities.id.au/

Best of Reading.

Sincerely,
Donald Meyers

A Dingo Took Azaria: Coroner

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THE fourth inquest into the death of Azaria Chamberlain concluded today with the Coroner ruling the baby died as a result of being taken by a dingo.

Lindy Chamberlain, the mother condemned by the Australian public and wrongfully jailed for Azaria’s death, tells her story at her website:

‘The family was staying in the public campground at Ayers Rock (now Uluru). Before the night was over her daughter was to disappear from the tent where Ambien she was sleeping. Lindy had seen a dingo coming out of the tent, and when she checked on her daughter, found her gone. There were dingo prints leading into the cold desert night and blood in the tent. But by morning, people who had not been with Lindy comforting her, or searching on that night, were already spreading wild, untrue rumours. Of sacrifice, murder, dingoes not being capable, and of weird behaviour…

As you look at the contents of this website, just for curiosity, or for research, keep foremost in your mind that this is two stories, firstly about a young life cut short. But, it is also the story of a mother who fought for justice, while struggling to keep her family together.

Above all, in everything that you do with your life, keep an open mind…

Read more at:
http://www.lindychamberlain.com/content/home

Australia’s Hottest: Withdrawn

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THE last really sensational global warming story broadcast by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) has been withdrawn – but not by the ABC.  There has been not a word on the new development from the ABC or any of the other media outlets that originally reported on it.

The story made headlines around the world following a media release from the University of Melbourne and the endorsement of David Karoly:

‘The last 50 years in Australia have been the warmest.

The researchers from Melbourne University used 27 different natural indicators like tree rings and ice cores to come to their conclusion, which will be a part of the next United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change report.

The findings show that no other period in the last 1,000 years matches the temperature rises Australia and the region has experienced in the last 50 years.’[1]

Sounds like another hockey stick doesn’t it? Following scrutiny at Steve McIntyre’s blog ‘Climate Audit’ the paper how been withdrawn.[2] Dr Karoly advised Mr McIntyre thus:

Dear Stephen,

I am contacting you on behalf of all the authors of the Gergis et al (2012) study ‘Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium’

An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, which may affect the results. While the paper states that “both proxy climate and instrumental data were linearly detrended over the 1921–1990 period”, we discovered on Tuesday 5 June that the records used in the final analysis were not detrended for proxy selection, making this statement incorrect. Although this is an unfortunate data processing issue, it is likely to have implications for the results reported in the study.

The journal has been contacted and the publication of the study has been put on hold.

This is a normal part of science. The testing of scientific studies through independent analysis of data and methods strengthens the conclusions. In this study, an issue has been identified and the results are being re-checked.

We would be grateful if you would post the notice below on your ClimateAudit web site.

We would like to thank you and the participants at the ClimateAudit blog for your scrutiny of our study, which also identified this data processing issue.

Thanks, David Karoly

Print publication of scientific study put on hold
An issue has been identified in the processing of the data used in the study, “Evidence of unusual late 20th century warming from an Australasian temperature reconstruction spanning the last millennium” by Joelle Gergis, Raphael Neukom, Stephen Phipps, Ailie Gallant and David Karoly, accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.
We are currently reviewing the data and results.

If only they would now withdraw the next United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change report, the carbon tax, and…

 

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1] Last 50 years were Australia’s hottest: study
Matthew Carney, May 17, 2012
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-17/study-says-last-fifty-years-were-australias-hottest/4016304/?site=science/memory&topic=latest

2] Gergis et al Put on Hold, Steve McIntyre, June 8, 2012 http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/08/gergis-et-al-put-on-hold/