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Jennifer Marohasy

Jennifer Marohasy

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Hottest Day Ever in Australia Confirmed: Bourke 51.7°C, 3rd January 1909

July 10, 2020 By jennifer

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology deleted what was long regarded as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia – Bourke’s 125°F (51.7°C) on the 3rd January 1909. This record* was deleted, falsely claiming that this was likely some sort of ‘observational error’, as no other official weather stations recorded high temperatures on that day.

However, Craig Kelly MP has visited the Australian National Archive at Chester Hill in western Sydney to view very old meteorological observation books. It has taken Mr Kelly MP some months to track down this historical evidence. Through access to the archived book for the weather station at Brewarrina, which is the nearest official weather station to Bourke, it can now be confirmed that a temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) was recorded at Brewarrina for Sunday 3rd January 1909. This totally contradicts claims from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that only Bourke recorded an extraordinarily hot temperature on that day.

Brewarrina Meteorological Observations Book, January 1909 — photographed by Craig Kelly MP. Note 123F recorded at 9am on 4th January 1909.

Just today, Friday 10th July 2020, Mr Kelly MP obtained access to this record for Brewarrina, the closest official weather station to the official weather station at Bourke.

He has photographed the relevant page from the observations book, and it shows 123°F was recorded at 9am on the morning of Monday 4th January 1909 – published here for the first time. This was the highest temperature in the previous 24 hours and corroborates what must now be recognised as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia of 51.7°C (125°F) degrees at Bourke on the afternoon of Sunday 3rd January 1909.

The Meteorological Observations Book for Bourke for January 1909 records 125°C for 3rd January. Photograph taken on 26th June in 2014 at the Chester Hill archive by Jennifer Marohasy.

These images are from more complete pages that were photographed and can be accessed here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/reinstate-hottest-day/

That the Bureau of Meteorology denies these record hot days is a travesty. Is it because these records contradict their belief in catastrophic human-caused global warming?

The temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) recorded back in 1909 which is more than 100 years ago, photographed by Mr Kelly today at the National Archives in Chester Hill, is almost equivalent to the current official hottest day ever for Australia of 50.7 degrees Celsius at Oodnadatta on 2nd January 1960. These are in fact only the fourth and third hottest days recorded in Australia, respectively.

Not only has Mr Kelly MP tracked-down the meteorological observations book for Brewarrina, but over the last week he has also uncovered that 51.1°C (124°F) was recorded at White Cliffs for Wednesday 11th January 1939. This is the second hottest ever!

The evidence, a photograph from the relevant page of the White Cliff’s meteorological observations book, is published here for the first time.

This photograph from the White Cliffs Meteorological Observation Book shows the second hottest temperature ever recorded in Australia using standard equipment in a Stevenson screen.

Until the efforts of Mr Kelly MP, this second hottest-ever record was hidden in undigitised archives.

It is only through the persistence of Mr Kelly to know the temperatures at all the official weather stations in the vicinity of Bourke that this and other hot days have been discovered.

If we are to be honest to our history, then the record hot day at Bourke of 51.7°C (125°F) must be re-instated, and further the very hot 50.6°C (123°F) recorded for Brewarrina on the same day must be entered into the official databases.

Also, the temperature of 51.1°C (124°F) recorded at White Cliffs on 12th January 1939 must be recognised as the second hottest ever.

For these temperatures to be denied by the Bureau because they occurred in the past, before catastrophic human-caused global warming is thought to have come into effect, is absurd.

At a time in world history when Australians are raising concerns about the Chinese communist party removing books from Libraries in Hong Kong, we should be equally concerned with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology removing temperature records from our history.

If global warming is indeed the greatest moral issue of our time, then every Australian regardless of their politics and their opinion on greenhouse gases and renewable energies, must be honest to history and these truths.

____

* This temperature (125°F/51.7°C on the 3rd January 1909) was recorded at an official Bureau weather station and using a mercury thermometer in a Stevenson screen. Hotter temperatures were recorded in 1896 but the mercury thermometers were not in Stevenson screens, which is considered the standard for housing recording equipment.

The feature image shows Craig Kelly MP at The Australian National Archive, Chester Hill, just today examining the Brewarrina Meteorological Observations book.

The following YouTube video is of me being interviewed on Sky Television by Chris Smith last December 2019.

I have previously blogged on the record hot day at Bourke being deleted by the Bureau here:
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/2017/02/australias-hottest-day-record-ever-deleted/

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Temperatures

Peter Ridd versus Prestige, and Clown Fish Beyond that Mudflat

May 30, 2020 By jennifer

To be truly curious we must confess our ignorance. The person who knows everything would have no reason to question, no need to experiment. If they went in search of evidence, it could only be to confirm what they already knew to be true. Knowledge then would be something that conferred prestige, rather than something to be built upon.

It was because of Peter Ridd that I had to know if all the coral reefs off Bowen were dead, or not. I went looking for mud flats with a Gloucester Island backdrop after the first judgement was handed down, that was back last April 2019.

Of course, Peter was cleared by Judge Vasta in the Federal Court of all the misconduct charges that had resulted in his sacking. Yet the University appealed, and that appeal was heard this last week.

Peter Ridd and me at the mudflats that fringe Bramston reef, just to the south of Bowen.

The university appealed because the modern Australian university can’t let a comprehensive win by a dissident professor go unchallenged. The modern university is all about prestige, and they probably thought that eventually Peter would run out of money, the money needed to defend himself in the courts. But they don’t know Peter, or the team backing him.

Yesterday Peter thanked both the Union and also the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) for their support.

Peter also wrote:

The Federal Court appeal hearing is over, and the lawyers have done their work. We now wait, possibly for some months, for the three judges to make the decision. In essence the appeal was about defining the limits of academic freedom, and what a university scientist can say, and how he or she might be allowed to say it.

For example, was I allowed to say that due to systemic lack of quality assurance, scientific results from Great Barrier Reef science institutions was untrustworthy?

JCU said I was not, [not] even if I believed it to be true.
I am certainly not ashamed of anything I said, how I said it, or of my motivation.

Irrespective of the outcome of the appeal, I can now focus on other matters.

First, I will work tirelessly to raise the problem of hopeless quality assurance of the science of the GBR, including the effect of climate change on the reef. I am hoping that the Senate Inquiry will come out of Covid hibernation soon. I will also be pushing AIMS to release their missing 15 years of coral growth data, and JCU to release its buried report on possible fraud at its coral reef centre. It is shameful the contempt with which these institutions treat the people of the region.

Second, I will work with those agricultural organisations that show a determination to fight, which is sadly far from all of them, to demonstrate that the recent unfair regulations on Queensland farmers are based on shoddy science.

Third: I will work to encourage governments at both state and federal level to force universities to behave like genuine universities and not the glossy public relations companies that they have become. Governments must mandate the introduction of genuine and enforceable guidelines on academic freedom such as those outlined in the Commonwealth governments (unimplemented) review by ex-High Court judge, Robert French.

My IPA colleague Gideon Rozner has an important article in today’s The Australian newspaper that provides much more context. The piece includes comment that:

The Ridd case has resonated around Australia — and has attracted significant attention worldwide — for good reason. It confirms what many people have suspected for a long time: Australia’s universities are no longer institutions encouraging the rigorous exercise of intellectual freedom and the scientific method in pursuit of truth. Instead, they are now corporatist bureaucracies that rigidly enforce an unquestioning orthodoxy and are capable of hounding out anyone who strays outside their rigid groupthink.

JCU is attempting to severely limit the intellectual freedom of a professor working at the university to question the quality of scientific research conducted by other academics at the institution. In other words, JCU is trying to curtail a critical function that goes to the core mission of universities: to engage in free intellectual inquiry via free and open, if often robust, debate. It is an absurd but inevitable consequence of universities seeking taxpayer-funded research grants, not truth.

Worse still, it is taxpayers who are funding JCU’s court case. Following a Freedom of Information request by the Institute of Public Affairs, the university was forced to reveal that up until July last year, it had already spent $630,000 in legal fees. It would be safe to assume that university’s legal costs would have at least doubled since that time. The barrister who JCU employed in the Federal Court this week was Bret Walker SC, one of Australia’s most eminent lawyers. Barristers of his standing can command fees of $20,000 to $30,000 a day. And all of this is happening at the same time as the vice-chancellor of the university, Sandra Harding — who earns at least $975,000 a year — complains about the impact of government funding cuts.

While Australian taxpayers are funding the university’s efforts to shut down freedom of speech, Ridd’s legal costs are paid for by him, his wife and voluntary donations from the public. As yet, neither the federal nor the Queensland Education Minister has publicly commented on whether JCU is appropriately spending taxpayers’ money and, so far, both have refused to intervene in the case.

Gideon Rozner is tireless, and has also put together a fascinating 3-part podcast providing background into Peter Ridd’s fight for academic freedom. He interviewed me for this series.

The Heretic

The saga will continue for the next few years, whatever the judges decide. As will my interest in all things to do with the Great Barrier Reef.

I intend to be back SCUBA diving as soon as the restrictions on travel have lifted and I have finished editing a really important new book Climate Change: The Facts 2020. I’m so privileged, as part of this, to be working with some great scientists. Peter Ridd has a chapter in the book on tropical convection as the heat engine for atmospheric circulation. There are also chapters by Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen, Valentina Zharkova, and quite a few others. There will be 22 chapters, as there were in the last book in this series.

After the book launch, I hope to be launching a full-length documentary film from my trip to the coral reefs beyond the mud flats. The Ribbon reefs are right out on the edge of Australia’s continental shelf. I spent one week diving with the most committed and experienced underwater photographer, back in January 2020.

I learnt so much, especially about coral bleaching and also clown anemone fish. I got to swim with sharks. We have footage of reef sharks and red bass fish (Lutjanus bohar) chasing about one night at a coral garden. We also have footage of a 4,000 year old coral colony known as The Monolith. This massive living home to so many fish was badly bleached in 2016, but had fully recovered by January 2020.

So much to tell, so much to do, so much to finish.

Thank you for your patience. And thank you for your continuing support including for Peter Ridd against prestige. And, also, so that we can all keep asking the important questions. I still have so much to find out about the great diversity of corals and the colourful fish at the magnificient Great Barrier Reef. What I do know is that they persist as reef communities, despite the odds.

Clown anemone fish on the top of a towering coral bombie that I got to explore in January 2020.

****

The feature image at the top of this post shows me, underwater, with some clown anemone fish back in January at the Ribbons. We found eight different species in a range of habitat types including on an exposed underwater cliff that dropped 2,000 metres to the sea floor.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Freedom of Speech, Great Barrier Reef

Not Running Out of Oil, or Sunshine

April 23, 2020 By jennifer

I remember through the 1970s, we were meant to run out of oil, soon. In fact, as long as I can remember we have been running out of oil, soon.

Instead, oversupply is such that the benchmark for US oil fell below zero for the first time ever a couple of days ago. That is, the share market suggested oil couldn’t even be given away because it was in such oversupply.

There is no shortage of oil despite more than 7.6 billion people on planet Earth, and so many vehicles powered by it.

Prices have collapsed, because despite all the pumping from ‘Mother Earth’ since I was a child, there is still more. Because of the pandemic, global demand, not supply, has fallen dramatically. In fact, the worldwide supply glut has created a worldwide shortage of storage space for oil.

The headlines read:

Oil futures collapsed to below zero for the first time ever

Oil plunges for a second day

Yet still we have movies by famous Americans claiming an imminent shortage because:

Too many human beings are using too much, too fast …

That’s according to the latest Michael Moore movie entitled ‘Planet of the Humans’, released earlier this week, which was about the same time oil couldn’t be given away.

The movie is long and a bit tedious and laments our so-called ‘addiction’ to not only oil, but also coal. Yet it is different, because it also effectively shows up ‘renewables’ as something of a scam, if their objective is long term energy security and sustainability.

Surprisingly for Moore, the movie looks beyond the popular to explain that whether solar panels or wind turbines: both are built using ‘fossil fuel’ infrastructure.

In the movie, Moore interviews a technician who explains how silicon is mined and then processed in very hot furnaces with coal. And that this is what solar panels are actually made of – silicon and coal!

The qualities of cement and steel consumed in the construction of a single wind turbine are also detailed.

The new Michael Moore movie also shows us electric cars fuelled by a power grid based on 95% coal.

So, is electricity from coal better than oil, and how could we possibly still have any of either of them? Since I was a young girl at the beach, these type of documentaries have explained we are running out of both.

I am also reminded of how the prices of various natural resources has tended down over the past few decades. It was in the early 1980s that Julian Simon famously betted Paul Ehrlich that the price of Cooper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten would fall. And they have.

Julian Simon explains why in his book The Ultimate Resource published in 1981. Yet back in the early 1980s, and still today, the conventional wisdom has claimed we would all be undone by resource scarcity. Simon explains that our notions of increasing resource-scarcity ignores the long-term declines in wage-adjusted raw material prices because of innovation.

Another book, ‘The Future and Its Enemies’ written by Virgina Postrel and published in 1999 puts more context around the notion of innovation. Interestingly Postrel explains why government regulation may only be a problem when it limits innovation. Further, Postrel suggests notions of ‘left’ and ‘right’ in politics are some what meaningless. She suggests the more significant battles will be between the values of a type of person she refers to as the ‘dynamists’ versus the ‘statists’. Quoting from an interview some time ago:

In the book, I talk about the sort of core values of dynamists versus stasists. The core values of dynamists are – it’s really about learning. It’s about discovery. The idea is we don’t really know the best way of doing whatever, and that requires a lot of experimentation, trial and error learning, competition, criticism. It’s a messy process, but it’s the process through which we discover better ways of doing things, whether that’s in business, technology, or the way we live our everyday lives.

On the stasis side, there’s sort of two competing or two complementary ideas rather. One is the ideal of stability – that the good society is the society that doesn’t change. And the other, which I associate with sort of technocratic stasis, is the idea of control – that someone needs to be in charge to set us on the right path and to decide centrally what that will be.

How might this pandemic show the need for regulation and cohesion, while allowing innovation?

That oil prices are at unprecedented lows must be upsetting established world orders? I hope so. Then again, I’m a dynamist.

It is a fact that there has never been so many people on planet Earth and that we live during a time of great wealth but also great uncertainty. Our times perhaps provide unique opportunities for both Postrel’s dynamists and also the technocratic stasis.

In Australia and around the world, how much have our values changed in just the last two months? And yet we have perhaps more social cohesion, at least here in Australia? And many are looking for new rules of engagement, to provide some certainty.

As long as the rules created by the technocrats are clear, and there is still incentive, there is perhaps potential for great innovation: for us to innovate our way out of this pandemic. It should be possible through trial and error, spontaneous adjustment, and adaptation – even if we can’t travel, or party, or watch sport. In fact, there may be more time for thinking.

It is a fact that we can still innovate for a new and different future, and that the best things in life will still be free, even if the movie-makers keep telling us that we are running out of oil, soon.

In Noosa where I live, the sun is still shining, and it shines for everyone.

My little sister and I enjoying the sunshine in Noosa back in the 1970s, when the price of oil was higher and we were about to run out of it.

Filed Under: Information

Coral Catastrophes Imagined

April 10, 2020 By jennifer

Exactly one year ago yesterday, I was getting off a train in Proserpine, looking to pickup a hire car to drive to Bowen. I wanted to know if the coral there was all dead, or not. Bowen is a coastal town in North Queensland, not far from Abbott Point that is the coal terminal for the controversial Adani coal mine.

Judge Salvador Vasta had earlier that week handed down his findings regarding the sacking of Peter Ridd. He had exonerated Ridd and explained that James Cook University had wrongly sacked him.

Some claim that it all came to a sorry end for Ridd because he dared to question the consensus of scientific opinion concerning the health of the Great Barrier Reef – particularly the impact of global warming. The university claimed it was because he had become ‘un-collegial’ and did not follow various directives while disclosing confidential information.

These issues were argued in the Federal Circuit Court in Brisbane a month earlier, in March 2019. Very few people realized that at the heart of the case were a couple of what might be best described as fake-news photographs promoted by Terry Hughes.

This is the same Terry Hughes who is now claiming that 60%* of the Great Barrier Reef has been bleached, and that this is an extraordinary catastrophe for which we should all be ashamed.

If Peter Ridd had become un-collegial and disclosed confidential information, it was because he was fed-up with the fake news. As Ridd wrote in chapter 1 of the book that I edited three years ago, a chapter entitled ‘The Extraordinary Resilience of Great Barrier Reef Corals, and Problems with Policy Science’:

I have carried out half-a-dozen audits on some of the science claiming damage to the Great Barrier Reef, and in every case I have discovered serious problems.

The first of the 21 findings handed down in the Federal Court by Judge Vasta one year ago, concerned photographs used by Terry Hughes to claim that the corals off Bowen had been variously destroyed by global warming, ocean acidification and sediment run-off. Hughes claimed where there had once been healthy coral reef, there was now only mudflat.

This is the mudflat at Bramston Reef, with the Gloucester Island backdrop, that Terry Hughes claims now replaces once healthy coral reef. I walked a kilometre towards the ocean at low tide and found hectare upon hectare of healthy coral on Easter Friday in 2019.
I took this photograph on Easter Friday in April 2019. It shows corals at low tide with the Gloucester Island backdrop, and is about one kilometre to the south east of the photograph showing only mudflat.
Bramston Reef is to the south of Bowen, and across from Stone Island. Terry Hughes has claimed there is now only mud flat where there were once healthy coral at Bramston Reef. This map features in the film Beige Reef.

The most recent claims from Hughes, that all of the Great Barrier Reef is at risk from global warming, do not follow close-up examination of individual corals or even individual reefs. Rather Hughes has flown in a light plane in all sorts of conditions through the day even when it was windy, and looked down from a very high altitude, from some hundreds of metres away.

His claims are being uncritically reported as fact across the world, including in popular scientific magazines.

I’ve flown a drone at 30 metres above a coral reef and spotted white corals. I’ve snorkelled that same reef and found the same white corals to be very much alive and with zooxanthellae. I made a film of this adventure, documenting its health for that moment in time. That was in August 2019. I named that reef and the film: Beige Reef. You can see the white corals from the drone footage at 9.38, 10.35 and 11.07 minutes.

Beige reef fringes the north facing bay at Stone Island, which is across the channel from Bramston Reef at the entrance to Bowen Harbour.

The white corals were large; they are commonly known as bolder corals, and the species at Beige Reef was Galaxea fascicularis. I made this identification based on information in J.E.N. Vernon’s three-part encyclopedia ‘Corals of the Worlds’ using my close-up photographs of the extended tentacles. These were taken on the same day that I took the drone footage showing these same corals as white in the film Beige Reef.

A boulder coral, Galaxea fascicularis, photographed at Beige Reef on 27th August 2019 by Jen while snorkelling.
A close-up of the tentacles of the same bolder coral, Galaxea fascicularis, photographed on 27th August 2019.

If we go back eight years, to July 2012, it is a fact that Terry Hughes stood in front of 2,500 marine scientists at an international conference in Cairns and claimed the corals off-Bowen are dead. That claim, made while showing a picture of the mudflat at Bramston Reef just to the south of Bowen, was a front-page story the next day in The Cairns Post.

Peter Ridd had some photographs taken in 2015 showing healthy corals off-Bowen, he got sacked for this effort. To back-up Terry Hughes, Tara Clark from the University of Queensland and colleagues (including David Wachenfeld from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority), had a paper published by the prestigious journal Nature claiming that there are no-longer any Acropora spp. corals at Stone Island. In the film Beige Reef, I show 25 hectares of this coral type. I made Beige Reef to back-up Peter Ridd.

I don’t know of a single journalist prepared to visit Bowen, Bramston Reef, Beige Reef or Stone Island to check the veracity of the claims by me and Peter Ridd versus Terry Hughes or Tara Clark. Yet it is not complicated, though it will be political. The saga has been on-going since at least 2015.

Jennifer Marohasy: come visit the reef with me, Misha Ketchell

Exactly one year ago, keen to see for myself I walked across that mudflat at low tide, after catching the train to Proserpine and then driving up to Bowen. I walked across the mudflat on the afternoon of Easter Friday in April 2019, and kept going for about 1 kilometre. I found so much live coral, the other side of that mudflat.

I returned to Bowen four months later in August 2019 with skipper Rob McCulloch, marine biologist Walter Starck, and an underwater photographer.

Having the boat that McCulloch towed down from Cairns made it possible for us to get all around Stone Island. As it turned-out we found several coral reefs fringing Stone Island, including Beige Reef with all the Acropora spp.. To be clear, there is not just coral the other side of the mudflat at Bramston reef, but all-around Stone Island that is just across the channel from Bramston Reef.

Surely it’s time journalists and their editors took some responsibility for the information that they republish? It seems they take anything provided by particular academics that fit a narrative, and give it a free run.

So far, Hughes has not published this most recent aerial survey in any peer-reviewed journal, or even made available a list of the locations with bleached corals. No doubt he will in due course. Then we will probably see a second wave of uncritical reporting by the mainstream media, again claiming the imminent demise of the Great Barrier Reef. The bottom-line seems to be that we live at a time when the dominant narrative demands an ecological disaster. It is as though almost anything that can be imagined, and told as a story by academics, can become a news headline. There is no checking.

I can only ask that ordinary folk be ever sceptical of such stories. Scepticism should be worn as a badge of honour, particularly in these times when it can be so hard to know whether there really is a coral catastrophe, or not. How can we find the truth, when even Nature publishes incorrect reports: claiming there are no Acropora spp. corals at Stone Island where I found and filmed 25 hectares on 27 August 2019.

Filming corals just below the surface at Beige Reef, which fringes the north facing bay at Stone Island. This photograph was taken on 27th August 2019.
Stone Island has sand, as well as stone, and corals as well as mudflat. This photograph was taken at the entrance to Bowen Harbour from Stone Island in August 2019 with Rob McCulloch and Walter Starck in the distance.

***

Postscript:

Quoting from an ABC News story:
Great Barrier Reef found to be coral bleached from north to south for first time
By national science and technology reporter Michael Slezak and the specialist reporting team’s Penny Timms
Updated Tue at 9:52am

“The Great Barrier Reef is currently experiencing the most widespread bleaching ever recorded, with 60 per cent of reefs across all three regions affected, according to a detailed survey of the system.

Key points:

1. Warmer sea temperatures have led to coral bleaching along the length of the Great Barrier Reef

2. More coral reefs were bleached in 2016, although the damage was concentrated in the north

3. Marine biologist Terry Hughes says the reef is rapidly adapting to climate change

It is the third mass bleaching event on the reef in five years — a phenomenon primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions, and one that had never been recorded before 1997.

“We were hoping that this year would be a relatively mild bleaching event, but unfortunately that’s not the case,” said Professor Terry Hughes, head of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/great-barrier-reef-most-widespread-coral-bleaching-on-record/12107054
______

The image at the very top of this blog post is of Matt and me on Easter Monday 2019, heading out to Middle Island from Bowen Marina. Much thanks to John Barnes for organising this adventure, and for taking the photograph.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Great Barrier Reef

Falling Sea Levels, a Rainbow and a Full Moon

April 8, 2020 By jennifer

I was there again on the wave cut platform to see how high the waves broke on the very highest tide for this month, and also to exercise. (During this Corona virus pandemic we are allowed outside to exercise.)

The photograph was taken by Caroline Forsyth yesterday at 7.23 am on 7th April 2020.

I’m standing on the wave cut platform at the time of the highest tide, yet the waves don’t reach anywhere near the cliff face.

Once upon a time when sea levels were higher, I would have been waist-deep in surf. I am referring to a period just a few thousand years ago, known as the Holocene High Stand.

The waves would have pounded that cliff face, occasionally bringing down great lumps of rock from above.

As the cliff-face retreated landward, the platform became wider. That is why this type of formation is called a Wave Cut Platform.

There are similar geological formations all around the world.

The peer-reviewed geological literature explains that they are evidence sea levels have been falling, not rising, over the last few thousand years. (Some relevant technical references are listed in the postscript.)

Of course, the height of the sea tide varies with the 18.6 year lunar declination cycle, and most obviously varies with the moon’s monthly cycle about the Earth. Yesterday was the highest tide and it occurred on the morning the day before the Full Moon.

Of the three Super Moons this year, tonight’s will come closest to Earth and thus appear the largest.

I am going to be out exercising again tonight, and watching the Full Moon come up.

For the Pagan, the Full Moon represents a time to be grateful. I am grateful that today my daughter is released from two weeks of mandatory quarantine having returned exactly two weeks ago from New York. I am grateful.

**** Postscript

If it is the case that failed scientific paradigms are not disproven, but rather they are replaced. We need a new theory of climate, and it could begin with understanding the sea tides and how they vary with the weather during each calendar year, and also the climate over millennia.

Howard Brady wrote to me a year or so ago:

“There is evidence of a gradual fall (not rise) from a high sea level stand between 8000 and 2000 BP. Such evidence comes from an increasing number of peer-reviewed articles describing evidence of this high sea level stand and its decline along the coasts of Australia, South Africa, South America, South Korea, and Vietnam.

There is increasing evidence that such a wide occurrence of a high sea level stand, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, cannot be interpreted as due to crustal movements (Glacial Isostatic Adjustments -GIAs) in different continents at the same time as these areas did not experience any significant glacial or ice crustal loading during the last ice age advances.

Basically, there is now so much data on this fall in sea level from a high-level stand that the GIAs quoted by Dutton and Lambeck 2012 should be abandoned. A few references to peer reviewed articles describing a high sea level stand in the HTM and the fall in sea-level from 8000 -2000 BP are listed below. There is no justification for any glacio-eustatic uplift since 8000 BP that stopped (for some unknown reason about 2000 BP) in regions that did not experience any ice loading during the last glaciation.

Accordi.A, Carbone, F 2016. Evolution of the siliciclastic-carbonate shelf system of the northern Kenyan coastal belt in response to Late Pleistocene-Holocene relative sea level changes. Journal of African Earth Sciences. Volume 123, November 2016, Pages 234-257

Baker,R.G.V., Haworth,R.J; 2000. Smooth or oscillating late Holocene sea-level curve? Evidence from the palaeo-zoology of fixed biological indicators in east Australia and beyond. Marine Geology 163, 367-386.

Baker,R.G.V., Haworth,R.J., Flood,P.G; 2001. Warmer or Cooler late Holocene palaeoenvironments? Interpreting south-east Australian and Brazilian sea level changes using fixed biological indicators and their d18 Oxygen composition. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 168. 249-272.

Baker,R.G.V., Haworth,R.J., Flood,P.G; 2001. Inter-tidal fixed indicators of former Holocene sea levels in Australia; a summary of sites and a review of methods and models. Quaternary International 83-85. 257-273.

Baker,R.G.V., Haworth,R.J., Flood,P.G; 2005.An Oscillating Holocene Sea-level? Revisiting Rottnest Island, Western Australia, and the Fairbridge Eustatic Hypothesis. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue no.42.
Bracco,B. et al; 2014. A reply to “Relative sea level during the Holocene in Uruguay. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.Volume 401.

Bradley, S, Milne,G, Horton,B, Zong,Y 2016. Modelling sea level data from China and Malay-Thailand to estimate Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level change. Quaternary Science Reviews 137:54-68

Chiba,T et al;, 2016. Reconstruction of Holocene relative sea-level change and residual uplift in the Lake Inba area, Japan. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, PalaeoecologyVolume 441, Part 4,Pages 982-996

Clement, A, Whitehouse,P, Sloss,S 2015. An examination of spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the New Zealand archipelago. Quaternary Science Reviews. Volume 131, Part A. January 2016, Pages 73-101

Haworth,R.J., Baker,R.G.V., Flood,P.G; 2001. Predicted and observed Holocene sea-levels on the Australian coast: what do they indicate about hydrostatic models in far field sites? Journal of Quaternary Research 17. 5-6.

Lee, S., Currell. M, Cendon, D. 2015. Marine water from mid-Holocene sea level highstand trapped in a coastal aquifer: Evidence from groundwater isotopes, and environmental significance. Science of The Total Environment. Volume 544. February 2016, Pages 995-1007

Lunning,S, Vahrenholt, F. Im südlichen Afrika lag der Meeresspiegel vor 5000 Jahren um 3 m höher als heute- Kategorien: Allgemein, News/Termine.25. Juni 2018 | 07:30

Oliver and Terry, 2019. Relative sea-level highstands in Thailand since theMid-Holocene based on 14C rock oyster chronology. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology,Volume 517. Pages 30-38

Prieto,A. Peltier, W. 2016. Relative sea-level changes in the Rio de la Plata, Argentina and Uruguay: A review. Quaternary International.
Sloss, Craig R,: 2005. Holocene sea-level change and the amino-stratigraphy of wave-dominated barrier estuaries on the southeast coast of Australia, PhD thesis, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, 20. http://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/447.

Sloss, C.R, Murray-Wallace,C.V, Jones.B.G; (2007). Holocene sea-level change on the southeast coast of Australia: a review. The Holocene 17, 7. 999-1014.

Strachan K, et al;, 2014. A late Holocene sea-level curve for the east coast of South Africa. S. Afr. j. sci. vol.110 n.1-2

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: sea level change

Running out of Rice, While Wasting Water

March 29, 2020 By jennifer

Australia was once self-sufficient in rice. We now grow less than 25 percent of domestic rice consumption. The SunRice Group has been importing rice from Vietnam and repackaging it to make-up the shortfall. Since the Corona Virus pandemic, the Vietnamese government has banned the export of rice, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has feigned an unprecedented drought. There is a need to not only prioritise health needs, but also to ensure we can feed ourselves. This could go together with the restoration of the Murray River’s estuary.

Spring rainfall in the Murray Darling Basin, 1900 to 2019.

I have been fortunate to live most of my life through the good times, and in a society so rich and well serviced that we flush our porcelain toilet bowls with water good enough to drink. At the same time, many have complained endlessly about a coming environmental apocalypse, unless all the travel stops, and we allocate ever more water to the environment. Now the travel has stopped, and also the rice growing, but not because of climate change or a shortage of freshwater.

We have a pandemic, and across the world communities have shown that they can do the right thing. Across the world, governments have put saving lives before capitalism and populations have mostly complied. We have been told to stay at home, and we mostly have. In Australia, department store giant Myer will closed from today. Around 10,000 staff will be stood down. Early last week, Qantas announced it was cancelling 90 percent of international flights. A couple of days later the borders were closed to everyone except Australians and Australian residents. My daughter was on the second last Qantas flight from the United States to Sydney, before the entire international Qantas fleet was grounded. She arrived the same day my home state of Queensland began turning back anyone who was not a resident, anyone who didn’t already live here.

She has spent the last few years overseas, most recently working in New York. She has told me that what was most disturbing about her last week there, in South Harlem Manhattan, was the surge in frequency of the sound of ambulance sirens.

New York has quickly become the global epicentre for Corona virus. A virus with its origins apparently in a seafood market in China that also sold wild animals kept alive in cages. Environmentalist Jane Goodall recently said that if anything good has already come from this virus, it is the closing down of that cruel trade. The market was in Wuhan which is a city on the Yangtzee River, where just a few years ago the Baiji went extinct. The Baiji was a grey dolphin endemic to the Yangtze River with tiny eyes and a long narrow beak. The last confirmed sighting was in September 2004.

The Baiji, Lipotes vexillifer, may be the first species of cetacean (whale, dolphin and porpoise) to go extinct in modern times. The extinction will have taken place at a time of unprecedented interest and concern for their large relative the Minke whale. It is perhaps a sad reflection of humanity’s sometimes inability to prioritise effectively on the basis of need, that so many resources and so much publicity has been devoted to ‘saving’ these whales whose populations are relatively abundant, while their endangered cousin was left to die out. In the same way we have been wasting water in the Murray Darling Basin on propping-up a crippled estuary when we could have been growing rice while restoring that estuary by bringing back the sea tides.

NO RICE IN THE SUPERMARKETS

Friday I was food shopping for my daughter now in a mandatory 14-day period of quarantine. I was surprised that there were no bags of standard rice on the shelves in my local Woolworths supermarket. Yesterday I went to Aldi specifically to buy some brown rice, but the line was so long – the line of people waiting just to enter that shop – that I will instead take her rice from my own pantry. Hopefully, the hoarding of food, as the Prime Minister, has described it, will stop. But is anyone in government a reliable source of information when it comes to claims there is enough rice to go around?

I phoned my friend Debbie Buller, who is a rice farmer on the Murrumbidgee River.
“There is no rice here, either,” she said. “Normally at this time of year we would be harvesting. But we have not been given a timely or adequate water allocation to grow rice for some years now.”

There have been claims that the recent drought was ‘unprecedented’, when in reality it was a very wet spring just a few years ago in 2016, in the Murray Darling Basin. Australia-wide the incident of drought has been decreasing since the 1970s and rainfall has generally been increasing. Yet since the summer of 2016-2017, rice growers have been denied a timely water allocation. The reservoirs and the rivers had enough water, but the government institutions responsible for water allocation have given Debbie very little. The mood has been against farming, and particularly against farming rice.

NO WATER FOR RICE GROWING

The Basin Plan has prioritised water for South Australia, and in particular the lower lakes that have been designated a wetland of international importance, even though they are only freshwater by artificial means since construction of the 7.6 kms of sea dyke back in the 1930s that stopped the tide.

The sea dykes and barrages prevent inflows from the Southern Ocean, they have stopped the tides making Lake Alexandrina totally dependent on upstream reservoirs even during periods of drought.

The taxpayer-funded Basin Plan is meant to be about restoring the environment, but it ignores the first thing that should be considered when fixing a river system — that is the need to restore the estuary to its natural dynamic state, as I explained to a Senate Committee in December 2015.

The bottom-line is that successive governments have denied upstream irrigators water in an attempt to keep forcing what was once the Murray River’s estuary to remain as an artificial freshwater lake. The water from upstream storages is sent to South Australia and much of it lost to evaporation, including in transmission. The Lower Lakes, that were once a functioning estuary but now barraged in as entirely freshwater, lose in excess of 800,000 megalitres of fresh water each year in evaporation, water that could be used to grow rice and other important staple food crops.

If my good friend Debbie had just 2,000 megalitres (0.25%) of that water that is evaporated, she could grow 2.16 million kilos of rice on just 174 hectares (430 acres). This would go some way to returning us to self-sufficiency. Once upon a time, over the ten years to 2004, Australian rice farmers grew 1 million tonnes of rice in an average year; we were self-sufficient. In Australia we could easily grow enough rice to feed about 20 million people a meal of rice every day of the year. Instead, again this last summer there has been very little rice planted, and not nearly enough available in the Murrumbidgee or Murray River irrigation areas to restock the supermarket shelves.

Another rice grower, my friend John Lolicato back in March 2011 when I visited him at Wakool, on an anabranch of the Murray River.

NO WATER, NO RICE, MILL CLOSED

A consequence was the virtual closure of the Deniliquin rice mill just last year, and the loss of 250 jobs.

To overcome the declining reliability of Australian grown rice because of changing government policy and public sentiment, the SunRice Group decided to instead invest in a mill where there was a reliable supply of rice.

They bought a rice mill in Vietnam with the intention of shipping the Vietnamese rice to Deniliquin for packing and distribution around Australia. Except, we live in unprecedented times, and the Vietnamese government has just banned the export of rice. So, the SunRice Group can no longer bring the Vietnamese rice back to Australia. There is not enough rice right now in Australia to restock the supermarket shelves, and none has been planted.

NEED FOR POLICY CHANGE, REMOVE THE SEA DYKES

Debbie and so many other rice growers would like to grow rice this next summer. But they have no idea whether they will be allocated any water. This situation needs to change. There is already more than enough water in the reservoirs for farming and the environment, if only the Murray River’s estuary were restored. The sea dykes need to be removed and the estuary restored. Then the 800,000 megalitres of water that is evaporated each year could be supplemented with saltwater, depending on the tides.

Once upon a time each spring, after good rains and snow melt, the Murray would tumble down from the Mountains spread over the vast Riverina and wind its way through the limestone canyons of the Riverland before flooding into Lake Alexandrina. By New Year, the river exhausted, and a breeze picking up from the southwest, the Southern Ocean would pour in through the Mouth of the river, and with the seawater came vast schools of Mulloway fish.

The fish came each autumn to spawn. The sea would work its way up across the lake and sometimes into the river proper. And so, the lakes would be sometimes fresh and sometimes salty, but always full of water and each autumn full of Mulloway.

Then the massive steel and concrete barrages were built across the Goolwa channel, that was after the dykes were already built sealing the Mundoo, Boundary Creek, Ewe Island channels and also the Tauwichere fishing area. In the autumn of 1940, the year the Goolwa barrages were completed and sealed, the Mulloway entered the Mouth, passed along the Goolwa channel and died in their hundreds of millions entrapped between the barrier and the falling tide.

The sea dykes killed the Mulloway fishery and crippled the estuary.

In 1939, the annual mulloway catch by commercial fishermen in the Murray River’s estuary was 595 tonnes. There is no longer an estuary; the Mulloway are stopped by the sea dykes. The catch in the adjacent Coorong has been no more than 30 tonnes in recent years.

The technical literature explains the sea dykes and Goolwa barrage reduced the size of the estuary by 89 per cent, and flows to the Murray mouth by 75 per cent. They stopped the tides. We are left with a freshwater lake full of carp instead of an estuary with Mulloway, crabs, waders and the biodiversity that comes when there is natural mixing of fresh and salt waters.

CONSEQUENCES OF HOLE DIGGING AND INFILLING

Some of us have been warning that as a civilization, it is best we not squander our wealth because bad things do happen. They are happening now. ‘Mr FOIA’, the sceptic and the good hacker who brought us Climategate, he warned back in 2009 that:

“[The] Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn’s future life. It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it.”

In the same email he described the misguided obsession with human-caused catastrophic global warming as “a massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavour”. The obsession has extended beyond climate change to so many aspects of natural resource management. It is the case that during the 1980 there were salinity issues in the Murray Darling Basin, caused in large part by rice farming. But the problems were solved through clever drainage management thirty years ago.

It is difficult to understand why this good news about environmental restoration is so rarely reported. Instead the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) continues to vilify those who defy agreed narratives when it comes to Australia’s longest river system, the Murray. Both sides of politics court the South Australian vote, and South Australians always want more freshwater including for the golf courses, wineries and the Goolwa sailing club that is just upstream of the barrage.

The Goolwa barrage that was sealed in early 1940, there are no longer any Mulloway fish in the Lower Lakes.

TIME TO SORT PRIORITIES

Now is the time to be honest to the evidence, to stop the waste, stop the politics and assure Debbie Buller some water for this summer, so she can grow rice for the thousands of people queuing for hours across Australia, trying to access staple food.

Denying Australian rice-growers water will not make it rain during drought, nor will it bring back the Yangtzee River dolphin or stop the spread of Corona virus. Restoring the Murray River’s estuary could though bring back the Mulloway fish. We are seeing for example in the many reports already of dolphins returning to Venice canals and clear skies over long-polluted cities, how resilient nature can be when we get out of the way.

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global pandemic, and the world community has responded closing whole industries including the travel industry. This health emergency could develop into a food emergency if we continue to hoard food, and if government policies continue to deny farmers access to water.

The SunRice Group have commenced discussions with the Australian government around the potential for an allocation of water to be made available to Australian rice growers who are upstream, this must be ahead of the planting window later in 2020 to ensure continued supply of Australian-grown rice for domestic consumption. Now is the time for sanity, for water to be allocated for farming so Australia can once again be self-sufficient in rice. But this is not enough, now is also the time to restore the once mighty Murray River its estuary.

The Chinese have banned the trade in exotic wildlife at that market in Wuhan. Now the Australian government can dismantle the 7.6 kilometres of sea dyke that deny the wild Mulloway their estuary. That would be a good start in getting out of the way, bringing back the sea tide, and filling our supermarket shelves with rice.

Debbie Buller standing neck-deep in a seed oat crop. It was planted directly after harvesting a rice crop, with the residual moisture producing high quality seed for oat farmers.

****
The feature photograph at the very top of this post is of Debbie Buller on her tractor in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA). This next spring she would so like to be planting rice.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Murray River

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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