Jennifer Marohasy

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Murray Darling Carbon Tax Link: Josephine Kelly

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TWO of the most controversial issues that will face the Gillard government in the coming months — the allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin and the carbon tax — have something in common. They arise from legislation based on the commonwealth’s foreign affairs powers and international environmental conventions entered into under that power.

The Lower Lakes and the Coorong that lie landward of the mouth of the Murray River in South Australia were listed as a wetland of international significance under the Ramsar international convention on wetlands in 1985. Until Dr Jennifer Marohasy presented a paper to the Sydney Institute in February this year demonstrating the Lower Lakes formed part of the Murray River estuary before the construction of 7.6km of barrages in the 1930s, the barrages had been conveniently ignored in the debate about the allocation of water from the Murray-Darling Basin for the Lower Lakes.

There had also been no reference to the consequential destruction of a native mulloway fishery and the creation of a terrific environment for the notorious pest the European carp as the environment changed from estuarine to predominantly freshwater. The Australian government website about the Ramsar listing acknowledges the Lower Lakes, Alexandrina and Albert, are comprised of fresh to brackish-saline waters and were part of the estuary before the construction of the barrages.

“The ecological characteristics of the area have been altered significantly since extensive water extraction from the Murray-Darling Basin commenced in the 1800s and barrages were constructed to separate the lakes from the estuary in the 1930s,” it says.

The Murray Darling Basin Commission’s Living Murray discussion paper stated: “The barrages have also changed the ecology of the lower lakes, reducing the estuarine area of the Murray to 11 per cent of its natural size.”

Read more here
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/legal-affairs/historic-link-shared-by-murray-darling-basin-and-carbon-tax/story-e6frg97x-1226325273552

Historic link shared by Murray-Darling Basin and carbon tax
BY: JOSEPHINE KELLY From: The Australian April 13, 2012

How Many Polar Bears in Nunavut?

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FOLLOWING aerial surveys to estimate polar bear numbers, it was recently reported in The Globe and Mail [1] that polar bear population numbers are higher than originally thought:

“The number of bears along the western shore of Hudson Bay, believed to be among the most threatened bear subpopulations, stands at 1,013 and could be even higher, according to the results of an aerial survey released Wednesday by the Government of Nunavut. That’s 66 per cent higher than estimates by other researchers who forecasted the numbers would fall to as low as 610 because of warming temperatures that melt ice faster and ruin bears’ ability to hunt. The Hudson Bay region, which straddles Nunavut and Manitoba, is critical because it’s considered a bellwether for how polar bears are doing elsewhere in the Arctic.”

Ever since that April 3, 2006, cover of Time Magazine many people have been very worried about polar bears.

The Globe and Mail report is apparently quoting Drikus Gissing, Nunavut’s director of wildlife management. But I can’t find this number of 1,013 in the actual report on the survey. [2] And what does it mean if there are 1,013 bears?

According to Anthony Watts [3]:

“What I found most interesting is the clear message that polar bears are thriving in an environment where sea ice (NSIDC includes Hudson Bay as sea ice) seasonally disappears entirely.”

But, again, I can’t find any evidence in the report that polar bears are thriving?

Across the entire region surveyed, polar bear numbers appear to have increased slightly from the 2,200 in the early 1990s to 2,580 in 2009/10.

It is generally assumed, by those who fear anthropogenic global warming, that polar bear numbers are declining globally. But many of us skeptical of this popular consensus have been quick to quote an assumed increase in polar bear numbers over recent decades from a low of about 5,000 in the 1960s to recent estimates of about 22,000.

But how reliable are these figures?

I’ve tracked down a copy of the ‘Proceedings of the First International Scientific Meeting on Polar Bears’ held in Fairbanks Alaska, 6-10 September 1965. It doesn’t actually state how many polar bears there were back then. The Canadian Wildlife Service Brief includes comment that:

“Scott and others (1959) concluded that about 2,000 to 2,500 polar bears existed near the Alaskan coast. By extrapolation they arrived at a total polar bear population of 17,000 to 19,000 animals. Uspensky (1961) estimated the world polar bear population at 5,000 to 8,000 animals. Harington (1964) has given an estimate of 6,000 to 7,000 polar bears for the Canadian Arctic and believes the world polar bear population is well over 10,000. Approximately 18 percent of the total Canadian Arctic population is cubs (0-2 years old).”

There is no reference list with this brief.

In summary we may live in The Information Age, but it’s sure hard to find meaningful information on population numbers for the iconic polar bear.  I’m not sure we have any real idea how polar bear population numbers are trending along the western shore of Hudson Bay, Nunavut, Canada or globally.

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Links

1. Healthy polar bear count confounds doomsayers. Paul Waldie. April 4, 2012 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/

2. Foxe Basin Polar Bear Aerial Survey
http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf

3. Nunavut Government Study: “the [polar] bear population is not in crisis as people believed,”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/05/nunavut-government-study-the-polar-bear-population-is-not-in-crisis-as-people-believed/#more-60777

No Global Warming For 15 Years: David Whitehouse

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NEW UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not warmed in the past 15 years.

Analysis by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years – a timescale that challenges current models of global warming.

The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the HadCRUT4 data is that between 1997 – 2011 it has remained constant, with a global temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.)

The important question is whether 15 years is a sufficient length of time from which to draw climatic conclusions that are usually considered over 30 years, as well as its implications for climate projections.

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Adelaide Advertiser: Yet to Correct Errors of Fact

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Dear Jen

The Adelaide Advertiser has not published your letter to the editor in response to the very crazy claims it published on Saturday from Minister Paul Caica. It published errors of fact and has not corrected them.[1]

The news today in Adelaide is the new Goyder Institute Report which can be downloaded here:

http://www.goyderinstitute.org/uploads/Expert%20Panel%20Final_020412.pdf

This report has been written by some of our most popular scientists including: Aldridge KT, Jolly ID, Nicol J, Oliver RL, Paton DC and Walker KF. This is the same Dr Walker who told the ABC TV Media Watch team that Lake Alexandrina has always been a freshwater lake.

I know this report is going to be demanding more freshwater for South Australia and more freshwater for the Lower Lakes. It will be very popular in Adelaide.

We lost the Grand Prix to Victoria. Now we want their water.

No one wants to hear your sensible practical solution of restoring the Murray River’s estuary. In South Australia we just want to complain and we want more water and the Adelaide Advertiser wants to sell more newspapers.

Charlotte Ramotswe.
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New Daintree Rainforest Website: Neil Hewett

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HAVE  you had a chance to check out the spectacular new Daintree Rainforest website?  Magnificent beauty and extraordinary biodiversity presented through a gallery of images in full-screen format.   The complexities of the oldest surviving rainforest in the world continue to challenge humanity as it strives to comprehend the continuity of growth, the intricate relationships and the incredible diversity established over 160 million years.  The image gallery is partitioned into aerial, fauna, flora, forest, insect and spider lists, for your convenience…

The relictual Gondwanan portion of the world-famous Daintree Rainforest, exists exclusively within the central three valleys off the eastern flank of Thornton Peak, with the Cooper Valley at its centrepiece. Here the highest biodiversity and concentration of ancient, rare, primitive and endemic species, impress visitors with exceptional richness, amid magnificent fan palm galleries and rainforest giants…

Daintree Rainforest demonstrates that cost effective conservation and carbon neutral operation on the land, can be fully-funded by sustainable eco-tourism at no cost to the public purse.

Neil Hewett.

South Australian Water Minister’s Foolish Statements About Murray River and Ngarrindjeri Culture

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YESTERDAY the South Australian government yet again displayed its contempt for science and history by claiming yet again that Lake Alexandria is, and always has been, a freshwater lake.[1]

I’m hopeful that the local tabloid, the Adelaide Advertiser, will publish my reply. So far this News Ltd publication has refused to let me respond to various articles about me.

My Letter to The Editor:

Paul Caica, South Australian Minister for Water and the River Murray, claims that in wishing to restoring the Murray River estuary, I show disrespect for scientific work and the culture of the region’s traditional owners, the Ngarrindjeri (Lakes flood plan defiles the existing evidence, Adelaide Advertiser, March 31, 2009).

In fact, all the science published in peer-reviewed journals is on my side. Minister Caica’s claim is consistent with the Book of Genesis in the Bible inferring the estuary came ready-formed with a sand barrier and central lagoon. But such an interpretation denies geological and environmental reality. The scientific literature clearly shows that Lake Alexandrina has a marine origin that dates back to a period of late Pleistocene and early Holocene sea level rise. Since this time the coastal sand barrier and related landward estuarine environments have evolved and changed naturally, including manifold changes in salinity.

The Murray Mouth barrages were built to stop saltwater intrusions that were a problem from the time of European settlement. Indeed, long before the development of upstream irrigation, the Southern Ocean would push in each autumn and for longer periods during drought.

The seawater poured in through the Murray’s mouth and sometimes worked its way across the lake and then into the River Murray proper as far north as Mannum. This is recorded in the patangi – a song category of the Ngarrindjeri. In one of these stories, the River Murray drags trees along as sea water flows upstream as far as Mypolonga. The river water was too salty to drink and the Ngarrindjeri were forced to dig wells about two feet deep to get drinkable water.

Minister Caica really should read more and/or consult more widely to avoid making foolish statements.

Jennifer Marohasy
Biologist, Noosa, Queensland

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