Paul

Just in case no-one noticed, the IPCC finally dropped the façade of being a scientific rather than a political body following the publication of the Synthesis Report. The IPCC now stands naked behind the Kyoto Protocol as the policy needed to avoid a computer modelled CO2 driven climate catastrophe.

Meanwhile, the report seems to have had a profound effect on UK prime minister Gordon Brown. Despite being previously advised that the UK could not meet the EU target of 20% of energy coming from renewables by 2020, he now intends to set a much higher target. Furthermore, he seems poised to replace the draft climate change bill target of a 60% reduction in the UKs CO2 emissions by 2050 with an 80% target. Details of any strategy designed to achieve such ambitious targets so far seem to be limited to the desire to seek the end of the single use plastic bag and the setting up of a ‘green hotline’ to advise people how to reduce their environmental impact. He also claims that there will be hundreds of thousands of ‘green jobs’ created, with no mention of how many may be lost.

Enter Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner to point out that Kyoto is ‘The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy’

Executive Summary
We face a problem of anthropogenic climate change, but the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 has failed to tackle it. A child of summits, it was doomed from the beginning, because of the way that it came into being, Kyoto has given only an illusion of action. It has become the sole focus of our efforts, and, as a result, we have wasted fifteen years.
We have called this essay “The Wrong Trousers” evoking the Oscar-winning animated film of that name. In that film, the hapless hero, Wallace, becomes trapped in a pair of automated ‘Techno Trousers’. Whereas he thought they would make his life easier, in fact, they take control and carry him off in directions he does not wish to go.
We evoke this image to suggest how the Kyoto Protocol has also marched us involuntarily to unintended and unwelcome places. Just as the enticingly electro-mechanical “Techno Trousers” offered the prospect of hugely increasing the wearer’s power and stride, so successful international treaties leverage the power of signatory states in a similar way, making possible together what cannot be achieved alone. The Kyoto Wrong Trousers have done something similar to those who fashioned and subscribed to the agreement. To set a new course, we need to understand how we have gone wrong so far. Accordingly, the essay proceeds in three sections, as follows:

Continue reading the entire essay.

Few MPs would have worked harder to defend their seats at this election than Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose blue ribbon Sydney seat of Wentworth is under siege not just from Labor but a range of environmental activists, mostly coalescing around the Greens.

But in the second week of the campaign, Mr Turnbull found the time to announce that the Government, already in caretaker mode, would bankroll to the tune of $10 million the investigation of an untried Russian technology that aims to trigger rainfall from the atmosphere, even when there are no clouds.

ABC News: ‘Turnbull pumps $10m into rainmaking gamble’

From the deck of the research ship Weatherbird II, a California company hopes to prove a controversial theory that putting iron dust in the ocean can produce enough plankton to help save the Earth.

The mission of the company behind the ship, Planktos Corp, is to research whether “iron seeding,” or “iron enrichment” – dumping tons of pulverised iron ore into the ocean – can catalyse the growth of microscopic algae that will then suck carbon out of the atmosphere.

ABC News: ‘Iron touted as tonic for climate-saving plankton’

Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer says Australia will be pushing for a declaration on climate change at a meeting of Asian nations in Singapore.

ABC New: ‘Downer to push for climate change declaration’

New UN Warming Summary Met by Snow & Record Cold – Sampling of Articles in past few days

New Zealand Vinyards Failing Due to “Record Cold”

Excerpt: The winery made a rights issue announcement on Tuesday in an underwritten bid to raise about $1.5 million for working capital after the record cold in December severely affected their fruit set and stripped them of 75 per cent of their 2007 harvest. “It doesn’t take much to write off a million bucks after that. Now we need to build stock levels given that we were so very short on the vintage.”

http://times-age.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3755526&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=

South Americans ‘wondering if Winter will ever end’ as Buenos Aires sees lowest temps in 90 years

Excerpt: Residents in Argentina and Brazil are wondering if this winter will ever end. Buenos Aires recorded this Thursday (November 15th) the lowest November temperature in 90 years. Temperature in the Downtown weather station reached 2.5C. Since records began more than a century ago, only two days had colder lows in November. It was in 1914 (1.6) and 1917 (2.4). And ninety years ago the urban heat island effect was much less pronounced than nowadays. In Brazil’s southernmost province Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil temperatures fell to 2.3C. In Sao Joaquim Monday’s (Nov., 12) the temperature was -1.2 C with frost.

http://my.telegraph.co.uk/reasonmclucus/november_2007/al_gore_wrong_again.htm

Swiss Snow Makes 50-year Record

Expert: Switzerland has not received such a strong start to its winter ski season since 1952, with the amount of snow being swept to the southern areas by the wind cited as a particularly interesting feature of the weather.

http://www.fasttrackski.co.uk/ski-news/switzerland/swiss-snow-makes-50-year-record-200711151407.php

Blizzard cuts off villages in Serbia

Excerpt: Snow blizzards that continued for the third day have cut off a number of villages in central Serbia.(FoNet)Villages at the foot of Mt. Suvobor are the worst affected, reports say. No buses are traveling between the villages of Pranjani, Kamenica, Teoèin, Leu¹æi, Ko¹tuniæi and Brezna, and the nearest town of Gornji Milanovac, Beta has learned form the local bus company. A bus slid off the road in the area yesterday, due to high deposits of snow on the road surface, after which police blocked traffic on the regional route between Gornji Milanovac and Po¾ega in western Serbia. Snow is falling unabated for the third day. Drivers are advised to drive carefully and use winter equipment for their vehicles.

http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society-article.php?yyyy=2007&mm=11&dd=18&nav_id=45510

Snow snarls commute in New Jersey’s northern counties

Excerpt: Commuters in New Jersey’s northern most counties are getting a taste of winter weather. Snow is falling, slowing traffic on portions of Interstates 80 and 78. A snow advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. in Sussex, Warren and Morris counties. The National Weather Service says a trace to 2 inches of snow have fallen overnight. An additional inch or two are possible. http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj–wintryweather1119nov19,0,4719983.story

PA Snow brings outages, varied accumulations

Excerpt: An early season snowfall brought a range of amounts to the region this morning, with the heaviest snowfall seen in the Pocono Mountains where 10 inches of snow was recorded in Monroe County’s Tobyhanna Township. Other snowfall amounts recorded last night include .5 inches in Easton and 2.6 inches in Allentown.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-snow-nov1907-cn,0,3237685.story

Heavy snow strands more than 100 tourists in China

Excerpt: More than 100 tourists were stranded in a county of southwest China’s Yunnan Province by heavy snow as traffic had not resumed, local government said Saturday. The stranded tourists were in the Deqin county seat and some remote villages of the county where traffic was still cut off, said Adain, Deqin Tourism Bureau director. They were safe and had no problems with food, clothing and accommodation, said Adain. Heavy snow 40 centimeters deep hit the tourist county Wednesday to Friday, causing a cutoff of power, communications and roads in certain areas. Roads linking Deqin to the outside may be reopened by Sunday, according to the official. The county’s diesel oil supply was tight, hindering efforts to clear snow and repair roads, the official said. In some areas the work has to rely all on hands due to lack of the fuel oil.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/17/content_7097030.htm

Heavy snow closes airports in NE China

Excerpt: Heavy snow in northeast China on Monday forced the closure of two major airports, disrupting the travel plans of more than 1,000 people. Taoxian International Airport in Shenyang, capital of Liaoning Province, and Taiping International Airport in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, were both closed at around 1 p.m., the Northeast China Air Traffic Control Center of the General Administration of Civil Aviation (CAAC) said.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/19/content_7106532.htm

Up to a foot of snow forecast in Idaho

Excerpt: You might want to give yourself some extra time if you’re traveling Sunday night and Monday, especially if you’re heading over the mountain passes. Snow has been falling on some of the higher elevations since early Sunday afternoon and it’s expected to pile up. The heavy snow warning wasn’t even in effect yet and the snow was coming down over Lookout Pass. It wasn’t sticking to the roads in the early afternoon, but with so much snow expected, transportation crews say traveling could be treacherous tonight.A light dusting of snow decorated the hillside along Fourth of July Pass. But winter’s beauty, can be winter’s fury. Early Sunday afternoon, drivers were already being warned of slick spots on the roadway. With up to a foot of snow expected in some areas overnight, Idaho’s Transportation Department says it has crews working around the clock, ready to go with the snow plows at a moments notice.

http://www.kxly.com/news/?sect_rank=1&section_id=559&story_id=15965

Oregon sees up to 10 inches of snow

Excerpt: Chains are required for motorists traveling to Mount Hood on Highway 26.Salem-News.com(SALEM, Ore. ) – The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory until 7:00 AM PST Monday for the north and central Oregon Cascades. Snow levels in the cascades overnight will range from 2,500 feet near Mount Hood to 3,000 feet in the Willamette Pass, and continue lower to 2,000 and 2,500 feet on Monday. Snow is expected to continue to fall throught the night, then diminish from north to south after midnight. Accumulations by late Sunday night are expected to range from 6 to 10 inches with the heaviest accumulations in the north. Snow showers on Monday will bring another 2 to 4 inches to the Cascades.

http://www.salem-news.com/articles/november182007/oregon_snow_111807.php

Wyoming sees 27 inches of snow

Excerpt: The Tetons received about a foot of snow in the higher elevations over the weekend, drawing skiers to the mountains and bringing opening day at area resorts closer. The Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center reported 5 inches of snow fell from Friday morning to Saturday morning and 7 inches from Saturday morning to Sunday morning at the Raymer study plot at 9,300 feet. The total snow depth there was 27 inches Sunday morning.

http://www.jacksonholenews.com/article.php?art_id=2436

Roads cleared after several inches of snow in UK

Roads are being cleared in central England after up to three inches of snow fell across the region. The Peak District in Derbyshire was the worst affected, but snow also settled in Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Bedfordshire, Sheffield and Birmingham. Rain and milder conditions are expected to clear much of the snow in time for the morning rush hour, according to weather forecasters.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/7101122.stm

New Hampshire Ski areas rejoicing with weekend snow

Excerpt: The first major snow of the season brought several inches to New Hampshire’s mountains, allowing ski areas to open and raising hopes of snowmobilers who had a rough season last year. Alice Pearce of Ski NH, which represents several ski areas, says the first snow of the season is always something to get excited about. Waterville Valley and Bretton Woods ski areas are open, with Loon hoping to open on Wednesday.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=7377805&nav=4QcS

Snow, ice cause accidents in Hungary

Excerpt: Snowing and icy roads have caused some 30 accidents in the country by Sunday noon, spokesman of the national disaster management authority Tibor Dobson told MTI. Cars, trucks and buses slid off the road and had to be rescued by the emergency services, mainly in the western parts of Hungary, where it snowed heavily on Sunday morning. A four-car pile up was reported from Veszprem County by Kislod, and a road accident in Vas County killed one, spokesperson for local police Katalin Peter told MTI. Ski resorts in the Bukk mountains (NE Hungary) reported 20 centimetres of snow on Sunday morning and said ski lifts were operating.

http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?menu=1&theme=2&cat=25&newsid=247791

The fourth and final part of the of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report has been published. The Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report is available here or direct from the IPCC website.

The IPCC claim at least 90 per cent confidence in flawed computer modelled climate projections and that most of the warming in the past 50 years is due to human activity. Calls will be made for deep, damaging and costly cuts in CO2 emissions by developed nations, further underpinning the suspicion that the UN IPCC is more about wealth redistribution than climate change. The warnings from the likes of Prins and Rayner that the Kyoto Protocol was the wrong policy in the past, and is the wrong policy for the future, will go unheeded. Adaptation to inevitable, natural climate change and the development of secure energy sources is the only cost effective way forward in my view.

The highest solar activity for over 1000 years is already coming to an end and the next 11-year solar cycle is running late. The scene is set for a significant period of global cooling by 2020-30, yet our policymakers heed the false alarm call of continued warming by an IPCC that admits to a ‘low’ or ‘very low’ level of scientific understanding (LOSU) of the link between solar factors and climate.

The UK Government has published a very foolish, unilateral climate change bill which aims to cut the UK’s 2 per cent contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions by 60 per cent. King Canute must be turning in his grave.

Anyway, enough of what I think for now – post your own thoughts or analyses below.

Regards,

Paul Biggs

Once again, the press is in a tizzy over the Bush Administration’s “censoring of science.” The case against the Bush Administration this time is that it edited testimony presented to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) by Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The testimony, originally 14 pages, was cut to six.

However, the narrative of a scientific cover-up is overwrought to say the least. The hearing was on the potential impact of global warming on human health, an exercise in speculation. It appears, if press accounts are correct, that what the Bush Administration cut from the director’s testimony was more speculation than settled science.

Read the entire article: Science vs. Expert Opinion: Did the Bush Administration Really Censor Science?