By Paul
OVERSEAS trips may become a once-in-lifetime experience and car travel needed to be cut by 80 per cent if we have any hope of avoiding “dangerous” climate change, experts say.
Energy experts from Monash University said the carbon emission standards recommended by the government-hired Professor Ross Garnaut would not be possible if Australia’s love affair with cars and planes continued.
Continue reading Car travel ‘cut by 80 per cent’
By Paul
Dr Joanne Simpson was the first woman in the world to earn a doctorate in meteorology. She has devoted her entire professional life to studying clouds and violent storms, and at 75, she’s still at it.
Formerly of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Present Position Chief Scientist for Meteorology, Earth Sciences Directorate. Simpson’s career also included working with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and NASA. Former Colorado State Climatologist Roger Pielke Sr. Called Dr Simpson “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”
The following are excerpts from her guest post on Roger Piellke Sr’s Climate Science weblog:
Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receive any funding, I can speak quite frankly. […] The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system. We only need to watch the weather forecasts. […] The term “global warming” itself is very vague. Where and what scales of response are measurable? One distinguished scientist has shown that many aspects of climate change are regional, some of the most harmful caused by changes in human land use. No one seems to have properly factored in population growth and land use, particularly in tropical and coastal areas. […] But as a scientist I remain skeptical. I decided to keep quiet in this controversy until I had a positive contribution to make. […] Both sides (of climate debate) are now hurling personal epithets at each other, a very bad development in Earth sciences.
Biography of Dr Joanne Simpson.
By Paul
Just before 1.00 am this morning I was woken up by the house shaking. It transpires that an earthquake of 5.3 magnitude took place and the epicentre was near Market Rasen, Lincolnshire, the worst quake for nearly 25 years.
The BBC report is here: ‘Earthquake hits much of England’
We had a similar experience on 22nd September 2002, just before midnight, lasting for about 15 seconds. On that occasion the epicentre was much closer to home and had a magnitude of 4.8. Apparently, our house lies close to the ‘Midland Microcraton along the Malvern Lineament.’
Previous UK quakes and magnitude:
April 2007 – Folkestone, Kent (magnitude 4.3)
December 2006 – Dumfries and Galloway (3.5)
September 2002 – Dudley, West Midlands (5.0)
October 2001 – Melton Mowbray (4.1)
September 2000 – Warwick (4.2)
April 1990 – Bishop’s Castle, Shropshire (5.1)
July 1984 – Nefyn, North Wales (5.4)
June 1931 – in North Sea near Great Yarmouth (6.1)
By Paul
A new paper is currently in press in the journal Comptes Rendus Geoscience, which reviews the evidence for a connection between Cosmic Rays and Climate.
The invited review authored by Ilya G. Usoskin and Gennady A. Kovaltsov is entitled: ‘Cosmic rays and climate of the Earth: possible connection’ is available via Ilya Usoskin’s personal website for free download (as a corrected proof).
The Abstract states:
Despite much evidence relating climatic changes on Earth to solar variability, a physical mechanism responsible for this is still poorly known. A possible link connecting solar activity and climate variations is related to cosmic rays and the physical-chemical changes they produce in the atmosphere. Here we review experimental evidence and theoretical grounds for this rela tion. The cosmic ray – climate link seems to be a plausible climate driver which effectively operates on different time scales, but its exact mechanism and relative importance still remain open questions.
The paper concludes:
We have reviewed the experimental evidence and theoretical models relating cosmic ray variations to the terrestrial climate changes.
On short time scale of a few days, there exists much evidence that CR changes may affect the process of cyclogenesis via the changing transparency and pressure, particularly in the North Atlantic during cold seasons. Although each individual piece of evidence is barely significant, in aggregate, they suggest that the relation can be real.
A link between low clouds and CR appears statistically significant on the inter-annual time scale since 1984 in limited geographical regions, the largest being North Atlantic + Europe and South Atlantic. We note that many reconstructions of the past climate are based on European data, where the CR-cloud relation is the most pronounced. Extension of this relation to the global scale may be misleading.
A relation between the geomagnetic field changes and climatic variations provides evidence favoring the possible CR influence on climate. A study of regional climate variations in relation to the geomagnetic dipole axis migration over the last millennium is also promising.
There is an indication of the climate changes synchronously with the CR flux on Mega-yr time scales, but this result is not straightforward to interpret. Large uncertainties make it only indicative.
Essential progress has been recently achieved in theoretical modelling of both ionizing effect of CR and physical mechanisms relating CRII to cloud variations, but the link between micro- and macro-physics is still missing. A new experimental evidence, obtained by the SKYexperiment team, confirm that enhanced ionization notably facilitates the production of small ion clusters in realistic atmospheric conditions.
In conclusion, a CR-climate link seems to be a plausible climate driver, as supported by the bulk of statistical studies and existing theoretical models. However, further studies, in particular a clear case study as well as improved model development, are foreseen to improve our understanding of the link between cosmic rays and the climate on Earth.
By Paul
Yesterday (Monday 25th February) four Greenpeace protesters breached security at London’s Heathrow airport and climbed on the tail of a Boeing 777 in order to display a banner saying, ‘Climate Emergency, No 3rd Runway.’
Prometheus points out in an article entitled, ‘A sense of proportion’ that last month the Chinese government announced plans to build 97 new airports in the next 12 years. Furthermore, on Saturday China announced plans to build nearly 100 new airports by 2020 to cater for soaring demand.
So why can’t Heathrow have a much needed 3rd runway and what difference would it make to climate anyway? Not much point asking Greenpeace unless you want a silly answer devoid of facts.
Meanwhile back in Oz, The Australian carries a story today containing the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) explanation for cooler February temperatures across most of Australia straight after record hot temperatures in January. Another one of those ‘climate experts’ is qouted as saying, “It’s just year-to-year variability. Underneath that variability is this insidious slow warming, which is the greenhouse effect, but it’s not big enough to stop natural variability, and it’s going to take a long time before it is.”
Read the entire article entitled, ‘Natural changes blow hot and cold.’
By Paul
Porsche GB has announced it will seek a judicial review of London Mayor Ken Livingstone’s £25 ‘Congestion’ charge for cars emitting 225g/km or more of CO2, on the grounds that it is unfair, disproportionate and will not cut either congestion or emissions. A motor manufacturer has at last found the guts to stand up for itself against a deeply flawed ‘environmental’ policy.
Porsche have set up a judicial review website here.
London Mayor Ken Livingstone is planning to raise the congestion charge from just £8.00 a day to £25.00 for some vehicles from October, and remove the exemption for residents, meaning that some people will see their daily charge rise from just 80p a day to £25.00 a day.
The new rules will affect several hundred models and many makes of car – 33,000 cars daily in total. This includes many larger family cars such as larger people carriers.
Porsche believes this will be bad for London and intends to take legal action in the form of a Judicial Review to stop this. This is yet another tax on London and the motorist.
It is a disproportionately large, unfair increase.
• The over 200 per cent increase for non-residents is disproportionately large- it is a huge jump in one go that looks more like a political stunt to raise revenue for an inefficient system than considered action.
• The jump for people who actually live in the congestion zone is even higher. People who currently pay just 80p a day will now have to pay £25.00 a day – a massive and unexpected increase of over 3000 percent.
• This increase will hit a large proportion of families that drive people carriers – the sort of people who use one large car, rather than driving a series of smaller one
• It will cost nearly £6,000 per year for those people, whether resident or not, to drive in London every day. This is a massive additional cost that people would not have known they were going to have to face when they bought their car.
• Motorists in Britain already pay very high levels of fuel tax and road tax.
This is yet a further increase which will squeeze them even further.
It won’t benefit the environment.
• Despite Livingstone’s claims, the increased charge won’t make any meaningful difference to the environment. The CO2 saved in a whole year is the equivalent, at most, to just a few hours of emissions from Heathrow Airport.
• It risks just putting more cars on the road as families move from one large car to two or more smaller ones.
• The increased charge will not be dependent on actual usage. A person driving a few hundred yards in one of the affected cars would have to pay £25.00 a day, whilst someone driving a slightly smaller car all day long would get away with paying just £8.00, or just 80p if they are a resident.
It sends out the wrong message about London as a place to do business.
• When London is competing to become the world’s leading business centre, it sends out completely the wrong message and will make successful people look at other cities to locate.
• The increase will hit large numbers of ordinary small business people who also use their vehicles for work.
• It comes at a time when people are already concerned about the state of the economy and when business centres should be doing all they can to secure their position.
Porsche has written to the Mayor requesting that he review his plans to increase the congestion charge to £25.00 for some vehicles. If he refuses to think more about the plans, Porsche will formally apply to the High Court for a Judicial Review. Porsche is not prepared to sit by and watch a world class city indiscriminately damaged.
ENDS
Porsche seem to be unaware of just how unfair and disproportionate the new tax is. The Stern report, commissioned by the Government, suggested that £44 per tonne is an appropriate level of taxation for CO2 emissions.
Motorists already pay over £240 per tonne of CO2 emitted – FIVE TIMES the level of the Stern recommendations – in fuel duty.
Ken Livingstone is going to charge those who live within the zone 3500 TIMES the amount of tax that Stern suggests is reasonable if they choose to own a car that creeps over the arbitrary thresholds for emissions.
Insult is added to injury when you realize that buyers of some brand new £40,000+ 4x4s won’t have to pay the £25 whilst some VW Beetle owners will.
London Taxis tend to be automatics, which all emit well over 225g/km and they don’t have to pay the charge at all!
Notes:
£25 less 80p is £24.20 extra a day for a resident of the central zone for driving a car with “Band G” emissions (over 225 g/km).
The new BMW X5 3.0D will emit 213 g/km (Autocar report), whereas a 2003 VW Beetle Auto produces 228g/km (SMMT website) — 15 g/km more.
Based on 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year, the brand new BMW X5 owning resident will pay £208 per year to drive in London. The owner of a £4000 secondhand VW Beetle Auto will have to pay £6500 — over THIRTY times as much.
If they both do 10km a day inside the zone, the VW Beetle owner will have to pay £161,333 for every extra tonne of CO2 he emits over and above the X5 driver. 228-213=15g/km =150g for 10km = .00015 tonnes. £24.20/.00015 equals £161.333.
The Stern report suggested that £44 per tonne was the justifiable level of taxation to cover the alleged “damage” from carbon dioxide. The VW Beetle owner is therefore paying 3666 times this amount for his extra emissions over and above a BMW X5.
Newer versions of the VW Beetle all emit under 225 g/km
LTI TXII Auto taxi — emission rated at 243 g/km on www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.
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