Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Paul

The Tropical Troposphere Temperature Tax

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The tropical troposphere is where we should see the ‘fingerprint’ of greenhouse warming according to climate models, so Ross McKitrick has devised a Tropical Troposphere Temperature Tax, or ‘T3’ tax. The explanation below is a composite from various T3 tax articles on his website:

Recently I came up with a policy proposal that reconciles my skepticism with the policy activism of the alarmists: calibrate a carbon tax to the average temperature of the region of the atmosphere predicted by climatologists to be most sensitive to CO2. I call it the ‘T3’ tax, and I think the proposal should make everyone happy, except the most extreme alarmists and the Trojan horse-types who see the global warming issue as a vehicle for imposing a set of anti-growth policies that they would want even if global warming fizzles as a pretext.

My “T3” formula – short for Temperature of the Tropical Troposphere – guarantees that, if carbon emissions do not cause global warming, the charge will not go up. The IPCC predicts a warming rate in the tropical troposphere of about double that at the surface, implying about 0.2C to 1.2C per decade in the tropical troposphere under greenhouse-forcing scenarios. That implies the tax will climb by $4 to $24 per tonne per decade, a much more aggressive schedule of emission fee increases than most current proposals. At the upper end of warming forecasts, the tax could reach $200 per tonne of CO2 by 2100, forcing major carbon-emission reductions and a global shift to non-carbon energy sources.

Some people have responded to my T3 idea with the concern that essential increases in the carbon fee might be delayed due to lags in the climate system. But the lags are associated with oceanic responses. According to models, the tropical troposphere responds relatively quickly to carbon emissions. And even if there is a short delay, it is better to learn with a lag than not to learn at all, which is the problem with all other policy plans.

Another advantage of the T3 tax is that it would create a market for accurate climate forecasting. Someone building a billion-dollar power plant would want an objective estimate of the likely carbon emissions price five or 10 years out. Competition would create strong incentives to get the science right. The T3 rule would create market incentives for climate modelers to eliminate sources of exaggeration in their models. And investors would search out the best forecasts to guide their current planning, thereby factoring long-term greenhouse warming changes into today’s investment decisions.

Nor would we need politicians to argue about how weak or strong the long-term policy should be – the atmosphere would decide. If the policy turns out to be too weak to force emission reductions, it would indicate that the climate is not sensitive to emissions.

Climate policy needs to shift from static to dynamic thinking. This requires tying policy to actual greenhouse warming. Anything else is like taking a shot in the dark.

Read Ross McKitrick’s articles on the ‘T3’ tax on his publications website.

Steve McIntyre has plotted a graph over at Climate Audit which shows the UAH (black) and RSS (red) data for the tropics (both divided by 1.2 to synchronize to the surface variations – an adjustment factor that John Christy is said to use in an email). Allso collated is the most recent CRU gridded data and calculated a tropical average for 20S to 20N, shown in green. All series have been centered on a common interval:

tropic53.gif

Steve notes that there have only been a few months in the past 30 years which have been as cold in the tropical troposphere as March 2008.

In comment 118, Ross McKitrick says, “…when I wrote that chapter last year the T3 tax rate was $4.67. It’s now $3.33 and falling. If this trend continues it could indeed become a subsidy, but to oppose it on the grounds that it might end up as a subsidy for CO2 emissions is to admit that one actually expects global cooling.”

As Ross McKitrick says – Why not tie carbon taxes to actual levels of warming? Both skeptics and alarmists should
expect their wishes to be answered.

Guess Who Just Closed a $683 Million Fund

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The investment vehicle headed by Al Gore has closed a new $683m fund to invest in early-stage environmental companies and has mounted a robust defence of green investing.

The Climate Solutions Fund will be one of the biggest in the growing market for investment funds with an environmental slant.

The fund will be focused on equity investments in small companies in four sectors: renewable energy; energy efficiency technologies; energy from biofuels and biomass; and the carbon trading markets.

The Financial Times: Gore investment body closes $683m fund

Free registration required to view the full article.

Antarctic Snowfall and Temperature Trends in Global Climate Models

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”We compare new observationally-based data sets of Antarctic near-surface air temperature and snowfall accumulation with 20th century simulations from global climate models (GCMs) that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Annual Antarctic snowfall accumulation trends in the GCMs agree with observations during 1960–1999, and the sensitivity of snowfall accumulation to near-surface air temperature fluctuations is approximately the same as observed, about 5% K−1. Thus if Antarctic temperatures rise as projected, snowfall increases may partially offset ice sheet mass loss by mitigating an additional 1 mm y−1of global sea level rise by 2100. However, 20th century (1880–1999) annual Antarctic near-surface air temperature trends in the GCMs are about 2.5-to-5 times larger-than-observed, possibly due to the radiative impact of unrealistic increases in water vapor. Resolving the relative contributions of dynamic and radiative forcing on Antarctic temperature variability in GCMs will lead to more robust 21st century projections.”

The above is the abstract from:

Monaghan, A. J., D. H. Bromwich, and D. P. Schneider (2008), Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07502, doi:10.1029/2007GL032630.

Roger Pielke Sr comments:

“This paper provides further evidence that the multi-decadal global climate models are significantly overstating the water vapor input into the atmosphere, and thus are not providing quantitatively realistic estimates of how the climate system responds to the increase in atmospheric well mixed greenhouse gases in terms of the water vapor feedback. This water vapor feedback is required in order to achieve the amount of warming from radiative forcing projected in the 2007 IPCC report.”

Changing Habitat – A Note from Gavin

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A former resident of Canberra complained today on talkback radio about how the city had become “tatty” during her brief absence. Apparently her family now lives somewhere up the north coast and have green lawns. The difference I reckoned was that the ACT region has missed out again in late autumn with our miserable share of La Nina.

Out on the western fringe of suburbia a few local residents have been watching two strange visitors for a week or so. Opposite my place is another dead tree, a large Eucalyptus nicholii that was planted as a street tree back in the early 1970’s. A few bird droppings on parked cars was the first clue. My neighbor pointed up to some high branches and eventually I recognized the shapes, a pair (?) of tawny frogmouths perched motionless in the higher branches.

P1010259.JPG

This messy old tree would normally have been condemned as a neighborhood hazard and removed on schedule with many others, however overnight it became “habitat” for what I believe after glimpsing another big wary gray bird on the outer limb late yesterday, two young owls left day by day by their parents.

Despite prying eyes, noisy cars, trucks and machinery underneath these beautifully camouflaged individuals remained seemingly motionless for days. Unfortunately I think a gang of currawongs has finally driven them off.

Note the clear blue sky in my latest photo.

Gavin

Earth’s CO2 Balance

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Using evidence from an Antarctic ice core, Zebee and Caldiera calculated that over a period of 610,000 years the long-term change in atmospheric CO2 concentration was just 22 parts per million volume (ppmv), although there were larger fluctuations associated with the transitions between glacial and interglacial conditions.

By comparison, two centuries of human industry have raised levels by about 100 ppmv.

BBC News website: Nature’s carbon balance confirmed

Nature Geoscience: Close mass balance of long-term carbon fluxes from ice-core CO2 and ocean chemistry records

Richard E. Zeebe & Ken Caldeira

Natural Gas to Replace Oil in Australia?

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The recent prediction by the head of Caltex Australia that the price of oil may very well double the already record highs for crude, have only heightened concerns about the security of Australia’s future fuel supplies. The Federal Government, for instance, has launched a national energy security assessment.

As oil production in Australian fields declines, the Government has also sought and won approval under the United Nations Convention on the law of the sea, to expand its search for oil offshore by an area equivalent to five times the size of France.

But Federal Resources Minister Martin Ferguson agrees that unless there is soon a “eureka oil strike”, Australia must find a new fuel alternative with sufficient reserves to power a vast and vital national car and transport fleet.

But there are those who say there’s an obvious solution to the fuel crisis right under our collective nose, a solution that could cut fuel bills by up to 60 per cent: natural gas.

ABC – The 7.30 Report: Natural gas: the future of fuel?

Mercedes is offering the new Sprinter transporter with natural-gas drive, with operating costs 30 per cent lower than comparable diesel-engined versions.

Drive.com.au: Mercedes van with natural-gas drive