Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Despite Climate Crisis, Surge in World Cereal Production

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For a long time now its been predicted that the world will run out of food. According to Jared Diamond and other doomsayers, we are mining our soils, depleting our water reserves and now, according to Al Gore, we also have a climate crisis.

The latest United Nation’s report on climate change** was, however, surprisingly upbeat for agriculture stating that:

“Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions.

“At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger.

“Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average
temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease.

“Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low and mid- to high latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming.

“Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.”

Then yesterday I read at ABC Online that the United Nations predicts a surge in world cereal production:

“A United Nations food body is predicting world cereal production will increase by nearly 4.5 per cent this year, to a record 2 billion tonnes.

“The Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates the bulk of the increase will be in maize, with a bumper crop already being gathered in South America and US plantings up sharply.

“It is also forecasting wheat production will rise 5 per cent to 626 million tonnes.”

Even in Australia, with this terrible drought, I’ve been told the prediction is for a record, or near record, wheat harvest this season.

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** Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Summary for Policymakers
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf

Government Will Legislate to Store Greenhouse Gases?

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I can’t image anyone complaining about having carbon dioxide stored under their house, but in an article entitled ‘Carbon storage won’t be optional’ Matthew Warren, writing for The Australian, begins with the emotive statement that:

“Australian may be stripped of their right to block the storage of greenhouse gases beneath their land under laws being considered by the state and federal governments.

“The capture of millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions from power stations and their storage in giant underground reservoirs, a process known as geosequestration, have been backed by the Howard Government and Labor as major steps in helping Australia and other nations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
Experts claim the technology could be commercially viable in Australia by 2015.

“A geosequestration law expert has warned that if proven viable, the new technology will need new laws based on oil and gas exploration and extraction that override landowners’ rights to veto storage underneath their properties.”

Read the complete article here: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21530480-2702,00.html

I’d be happy to have the carbon dioxide stored under my place and I’ld be happy if they build a nuclear power plant in the neighbourhood and I’m hanging-out to drink recycled water.

New Report Outlines Potential Challenges To Australia’s Claim to Antarctica

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In a new report by The Australian Strategic Policy Institute it is claimed that the validity of Australia’s territorial claim over 42 percent of Antarctica will face more challenges.

“There is going to be a lot more pressure on Antarctica – climate change, illegal fishing, more tourists, bio-prospectors,” he said.

“If peak oil hits stratospheric levels, there could be an Antarctic cold rush, prospects for an iceberg harvesting industry – there is going to be more interest.”

Ian Mott has emailed me that the the legitimacy of the southern ocean whale sanctuary, which has been a point of significant discussion at this blog, is contingent on international recognition of Australia’s claim to Antarctic territory. He also mentioned that many nations have not recognised our claim but have also not contested it, yet.

I am also told Australia maintains a policy of nil exploration and nil access to resources at Antarctica.

Download the report here: http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=120&pubtype=6

Latest IPCC Climate Change Report

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It was all over ABC news yesterday that Australia’s magnificent Great Barrier Reef is in “real danger of disappearing in 20 years”

The journalist, Elizabeth Jackson, was extrapolating from a new United Nation’s 23-page summary of a report on climate change.

This is the second summary report from the United Nation’s this year with the first summary report released in Paris on the 2nd February (blog post and comment on first report here).

The new summary report doesn’t say the reef will disappear at all, but it does paint a bleak picture. There only appears to be one reference to the Great Barrier Reef and the text reads:

“Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both countries.”

There is also comment more generally about reefs including:

“Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals. [emphasis added]

“Mangroves and coral reefs are projected to be further degraded, with additional consequences for fisheries and tourism.

“For example, current stresses on some coral reefs include marine pollution and chemical runoff from agriculture as well as increases in water temperature and ocean acidification.

“As a consequence of intense tropical cyclone activity: damage to coral reefs.” [end of quotes]

I’m still not convinced destructive fishing practices and pollution aren’t a greater risk to the world’s reefs than climate change as detailed in my controversial opinion piece written for The Australian some months ago.

The new summary sets out all the key policy-relevant findings of the Fourth Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Assessment is of, “current scientific understanding of impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems, the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability. It builds upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new knowledge gained since the Third Assessment”.

While much of the report is about what ‘could’ happen to the environment given global warming. It is interesting to note what is included in the section on current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural environment:

“With regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost), there is high confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples are:
• enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes;
• increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions;
• changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also
predators high in the food chain.

Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following types of hydrological systems are being affected around the world:
• increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers;
• warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality.

There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a wider range of species, that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:
• earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying;
• poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species.

Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a trend in many regions towards earlier ‘greening’5 of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming.

There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation.

These include:
• shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude ocean;
• increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes;
• range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers.

The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units [IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment]. However, the effects of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented.” [end of quote]

There is no specific reference to coral reefs in the “observed impacts” section. The comment that there is no evidence of ocean acidification affecting the marine biosphere presumably includes no impact on coral reefs.

In summary the report, like most climate change reports from the United Nations, includes relatively unspectacular observed impacts, is big on all the bad things that could happen, and the Australian media blow this out of all proportion, this time including comment that the Great Barrier Reef could disappear in 20 years.

Pacific Island Rises Up Out of the Ocean

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There has been widespread concern that rising sea levels from global warming will swamp Pacific Islands. (Remember the blog post by Ian Mott lambasting the ABC for confusing sinking islands with rising sealevels?)

Then along comes a seismic jolt unleashing a tsunami and, acording to ABC news, an entire island is lifted three metres out of the sea:

“In an instant, the grinding of the Earth’s tectonic plates in the 8.0 magnitude earthquake on Monday forced the island of Ranongga up three metres.

Submerged reefs that once attracted scuba divers from around the globe lie exposed and dying after the quake raised the mountainous landmass, which is 32 kilometres long and eight kilometres wide.”

Read the complete article here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1892185.htm

Happy Easter

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Burleigh Jan07 002 blog.JPG
Life Savers @ Burleigh Heads on Queensland’s Gold Coast

It’s Easter. Over the next few days, I’ll be going to church and the beach and eating some chocolate. I also hope to find some time for a blog post or two.

Happy Easter.