Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Is NASA’s Hansen Playing Enron Accounting Games With Climate Data? Blog Post by Noel Sheppard

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Since NASA’s James Hansen finally released computer codes related to how climate data are collected and adjusted, anthropogenic global warming skeptics around the world have been waiting to see what a scientific examination of this information would produce.

On Monday, Canada’s Steve McIntyre, who himself debunked Michael Mann’s ridiculous “Hockey Stick” theory as well as identified Hansen’s Y2K bug, released information identifying that Hansen recently made additional changes to climate data akin to how companies like Enron used creative accounting to exaggerate earnings and defraud investors.

As published at Climate Audit moments ago (emphasis added, h/t Anthony Watts):

Shortly after, NASA published their source code on Sept 7, we started noticing puzzling discrepancies in the new data set. […]

On Sept 15, Jerry Brennan observed that the NASA U.S. temperature history had changed and that 1998 was now co-leader atop the U.S. leaderboard.

By this time, we’d figured out exactly what Hansen had done: they’d switched from using the SHAP version – which had been what they’d used for the past decade or so – to the FILNET version. The impact at Detroit Lakes was relatively large – which was why we’d noticed it, but in the network as a whole the impact of the change was to increase the trend slightly – enough obviously to make a difference between 1934 and 1998 – even though this supposedly was of no interest to anyone.

In very simplistic terms, SHAP and FILNET are computer programs used by climatologists to assist in the collation and interpretation of climate data. Each program does so differently, and, therefore, yields different final results.

As such, by suddenly switching from SHAP – which NASA had been using for decades – to FILNET, NASA was able to once again claim that 1998 and 1934 are now tied for the warmest years on record in the U.S. This despite Hansen’s claim in August that climate record changes precipitated by McIntyre’s Y2K bug find were irrelevant.

As McIntyre pointed out, what’s now happening at NASA is akin to companies changing from Generally Accepting Accounting Principles (GAAP) to what produced a lot of faulty earnings in the late ’90s and early ’00s, Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA):

Read the rest of the blog post here http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/09/17/nasa-s-hansen-playing-enron-accounting-games-climate-data

The Atmosphere is Thin and Oceans Shallow: An Illustration and Note from Lance Endersbee

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I considered the relation between carbon dioxide (CO2) and the oceans as a surface or interface phenomena. The oceans are remarkably shallow in relation to the lateral extent. Similarly the atmosphere is remarkably thin.

The dominant common physical attribute is the vast surface area. The dominant driving force is the sun.

The oceans breathe carbon dioxide in and out every day. The sun warms the ocean surface and CO2 is released. The oceans cool at night and absorb CO2. It is the same with the seasons and the El Nino/ La Nina events.

Lance earth_ocean_atmosphere.jpg

Lance Endersbee
Former Dean of Engineering (1976-1988) and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monash University
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This note and illustration from Lance Endersbee follow an earlier post entitled ‘Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Follow Sea Surface Temperatures’ and can be read here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/002303.html

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Follow Sea Surface Temperature: A Note from Lance Endersbee

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Dear Colleagues,

Following is a chart showing the definite physical relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures.

It can be regarded as the experience curve of reality.

I used CO2 data from Mauna Loa as it is at a higher elevation and well mixed.

I used recent global average sea surface temperatures based on satellite sensing as they are the only reliable data we have on average SST.

I used a 21 year moving average of SST values as the oceans breathe carbon dioxide in and out with the El Nino and La Nina cycles.

The net result is a clear firm relationship.

It is what would be expected from the solubility curve of CO2 in water.

The little bumps on the line can be traced to volcanic events.

I note that the oceans scavenge excess CO2 from volcanic events within about 2 years.

This chart shows that it is physically impossible for man-made emissions of carbon dioxide to accumulate in the atmosphere.

It proves that CO2 is not a pollutant.

Lance Endersbee
Former Dean of Engineering (1976-1988) and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monash University

Lance Endersbee.jpg

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And Jen is reminded of a note from Arnost, dated March 29, 2007 and entitled ‘Why Are There No Major “Spikes or Troughs” in the Official Direct Measurements of C02?’ click here: https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/archives/001976.html

How Long Does it Take to Kill a Whale and Sink a Ship? An Update from Ann Novek

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According to Paul Watson from anti-whaling NGO Sea Shepherd, traditional Makah whalers had no plans to resume whaling. Then Watson’s mate Wayne Johnson went out one Saturday morning and killed a gray whale:

According to Lynda V. Mapes reporting for the Seattle Times:

“It was about 6:30 on a beautiful summer morning, with gray whales all around, when Wayne Johnson decided he had waited long enough: It was time to hunt whales again.

Within minutes Saturday, Johnson and four other Makah tribal members were on the downtown dock at Neah Bay, boarding two motorized boats. By the end of the day, the men were in handcuffs and a whale was dead.”

“Sunday, even as tribal council members strongly denounced the hunt, Johnson said he had no regrets. “If anything, I wish I’d done it years earlier,” he said.”

“Johnson confirmed that the hunt that shocked his own tribe and anti-whaling activists Saturday was carried out without the permission of his Tribal Council or Whaling Commission”

“And it was done without conforming to conditions of the federal permit that controlled that 1999 hunt — permission from the tribe; prior notification to a federal observer who had to be in place at the time of the kill; restricting the hunt to the outer coast to protect “resident” whales in the Strait of Juan de Fuca; approaching the whale in a traditional canoe; and using first a harpoon and then a .50-caliber gun to dispatch the whale.

On Saturday, there was no permit, no observer, no canoe; no restricting the hunt to the coast. Just five whalers, four from the 1999 hunt, casting loose from the downtown dock.

“Why mess around with a canoe?” Johnson said. “It would have been more people in jail, and we would have lost the canoe.”

“Saturday night, after the whalers were taken into custody, tribal officials met with community members for more than two hours to talk about what had happened. Some were concerned the rogue hunt would complicate and slow their efforts to legally hunt whales again.”

Journalist Ken Schram is even harder on Wayne Johnson:

“Don’t call it a hunt.”

“Never mind that they didn’t have permission from the Makah tribal council to hunt the whale.

Never mind that they didn’t have the necessary federal permit.

Never mind that the spiritual and cultural elements of a whale hunt were no where to be found.

Never mind any of that.

Wayne Johnson, the guy who says he’s got whaling in his blood, just felt the time was right to go out and kill.

No blubber shared with the elders and the young.

No ancestral stories.

No respect for the whale or for Indian heritage.

It took 12 hours for the gray whale to die.

Meanwhile …

An American animal rights activists has take responsibility for the sinking of the Norwegian whaling ship:

“On the night of august 30th we decided to celebrate the end of commercial whaling in Iceland by removing a large section of cooling pipe in the engine room of the norweigan whaler Willassen Senior.

“After ensuring that the vessel was unoccupied the salt water intake valve was opened unleashing a torrent of water into the heart of the killer ship that two years earlier took 14 minutes to brutally murder a threatened minke whale.”

“The sinking of the whaler and the silencing of its deadly harpoon is dedicated to the memory of the yangtze river dolphin who because of humankinds greed will never again grace the waters of our blue planet”

Of course now the whaler has been sunk due to anti-whaling activists, Norwegians will probably once again unite to defend whaling as was proved in the late 90’s. Indeed, the local Labour Party Chair has now stated this is a terrorist attack on Norway and wants political reaction.

Ann Novek,
Sweden

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Apologies to Ann for not posting this sooner.

Australia Not GM Free: A Note from David Tribe

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Surely the bans on genetically modified (GM) food crops in most Australian states will be lifted soon?

But the mainstream media keep printing these letter from people like Gill Rosier perpetuating misinformation – in particular the myth that Australia is GM free. David Tribe busted a few myths in his letter to The Age on September 13, 2007, reprinted here with permission:

Horse has already bolted on GM foods

GILL Rosier (Letters, 11/9) points out the decision to lift or extend Victoria’s moratorium on genetically manipulated crops rests with Premier John Brumby. Rosier also offers the judgement that Mr Brumby is likely to drop the ban, given his vision for Victoria to be a world leader in biotechnology. But Rosier also raises the issue of whether in making such a decision, Mr Brumby will throw away Victoria’s “GM-free status”.

The answer to this is simple. There is no way our “GM-free status” will be affected because in Victoria we already import large quantities of GM foods and stock feeds — maize, soy and canola — particularly in times of drought. For many years now we have been feeding them to farm animals in stock feed. So, without even mentioning GM vaccines, GM carnations or Australian GM cottonseed, the truthful answer to Rosier’s rhetorical question is this: in Victoria’s case, the “GM-free status” tag is just tricky double-speak for our present active use of GM feeds and foods in farming systems. The equally misleading question of whether there is any real price advantage from this dubious distinction can be left for another day.

David Tribe
Senior Lecturer, Institute of Land and Food, University of Melbourne

Conference on Integrity in Science Focuses on IPCC

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A claimed “first world conference on research integrity” opens in Lisbon, Portugal, today. The conference media release explains: “The controversies surrounding the recent assessment report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) demonstrates how research integrity is a critical issue not only for the science community, but for politicians and the society as a whole as well. In August 2007 the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) had to withdraw previous published historical climate data.

The incident came after a British mathematician discovered that the sources used by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) have disregarded the positions of weather stations, plus intentionally using outdated data on China from 1991 and ignoring revised data on the country from 1997.

Now 350 concerned scientists, scientific managers and magazine editors from around the world are scheduled to attend the event in Lisbon, initiated and organised by the European Science Foundation (ESF) and the US Office for Research Integrity (ORI). It marks a milestone for the science community as it will link all those concerned parties in a global effort to tackle the issue head on.

”At the very least, countries should know how misconduct will be handled in other countries and whom to contact if they have questions. A more ambitious goal is to begin to harmonize global policies relating to research integrity,” says Conference Co-Chair Nicholas Steneck from the University of Michigan.

“By now there are no consistent global standards for defining and responding to major misconduct in research. Definitions and practices vary from country to country and even institution to institution. Improper practices that could be ignored in one country could get a researcher dismissed from a position in another country,” Steneck adds.

The conference will be focusing on both individual and institutions’ responsibilities, and of funding agencies as well as publishers, according to Conference Co-Chair Tony Mayer from the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Mayer is also the former Senior Science Policy Adviser to the ESF.

Jose-Mariano Gago, the Portuguese Minister of Science, Technology and Higher Education, Janez Potocnik, the European Commissioner for Research, Angel Gurri?a, the Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and Tim Hunt from the Cancer Research UK, South Mimms will kick off the event by participating in the opening talks. .

In his keynote address, Paul David form the Oxford University, UK, and Stanford University, Palo Alto, U.S., will give an overview on analytical and empirical studies of ORI on the problem of scientific misconduct. David is well known for his research in the economics of science and technology, with special reference to the impact of intellectual property rights protections on the direction and conduct of ‘open science’ research.

Howard Alper, Professor of Chemistry and Vice-President Research at the University of Ottawa, and winner of the first Gerhard Herzberg Canada Gold Medal in Science and Engineering, Canada’s most prestigious award for science and engineering, is also affiliated with the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, because he is also an expert in the situations in developing and emerging countries. From his experiences he presents the best practices for the benefit of a society.

Herbert Gottweis from the Institute of Political Sciences, University of Vienna, Austria, will reconsider the Hwang gate from 2005 and present the lessons learned. Gottweis is vice-president of the Austrian Research Fund (FWF) and coordinator of the PAGANINI (“Participatory Governance and Institutional Innovation“) project of the European Union.

The conference will also touch on the situation in developing and emerging countries, where scientists often have to produce publications in numbers under pressure to achieve the formal scientific qualifications. Thus voices from Africa, like that from Amaboo Dhai, University of the Witwatersrand Medical School, Steve Biko Centre for Bioethics, Parktown, South Africa, will also be heard. In addition, Annette Flanagin of JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association, and Muza Gondwe, University of Malawi, College of Medicine, Blantyre, will contribute their experiences from the „African Journal Partnership Project“. Flanagin is the author of the JAMA Manual of Style: A Guide for Authors and Editors, now in it’s 10th edition.

In other words the World Conference on Research Integrity focuses on an open sore of science, taking into consideration the reality, legal and institutional aspects, as well as regional, social and psychological environments in which scientists work.It intends to be the beginning of the healing process.

For more information on the conference please go to:
http://www.esf.org/conferences/researchintegrity
Live news and photos from the event will be posted on the ESF Media Centre:
http://www.esf.org/media-centre.html