Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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The Work of Ferenc Miskolczi (Part 1)

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OUR understanding of the natural world does not progress through the straight forward accumulation of facts because most scientists tend to gravitate to the established popular consensus also known as the established paradigm.  Thomas Kuhn describes the development of scientific paradigms as comprising three stages: prescience, normal science and revolutionary science when there is a crisis in the current consensus.  When it comes to the science of climate change, we are probably already in the revolution state.  In particular there is growing concern that some of the physics underpinning the IPCC climate models may be flawed.  The work of Ferenc Miskolczi is a case in point.

Some years ago this Hungarian physicist, then working for NASA, discovered a flaw in an equation used in the current climate models  discovered a flaw in how those constructing the IPCC climate models deal with the issue of the atmosphere’s boundary conditions.  In order to progress this research Dr Miskolczi eventually resigned from NASA claiming his supervisors at NASA tried to suppress discussion and publication of his findings which have since been published in IDŐJÁRÁS, The Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service.

In essence Dr Miskolczi showed that the solution to a differential equation for the greenhouse effect developed in 1922 by Arthur Milne, and central to the current paradigm, wrongly assumed an infinitely thick atmosphere.  In re-solving this equation a new term and also a new law of physics have been proposed setting an upper limit to the greenhouse effect.   Dr Miskolczi’s theory indicates that any warming from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide will eventually be offset by a change in atmospheric moisture content. 

The idea that water vapour is a negative rather than positive feedback is consistent with the findings of other climate scientists undertaking independent research that is also challenging the current paradigm, for example the work of Dr Roy Spencer.

The importance of the hydrological cycle including water vapour and cloud cover, and how their impacts on the global energy budget should be modelled, have been issues for other climate scientists critical of the current paradigm including Roy Spencer from the University of Alabama, Huntsville, and Henrik Svensmark  from the Danish National Space Centre.
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Defining the Greens (Part 6)

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It is now official, at least in Britain, Environmentalism is a religion.  Indeed, one can now sue for religious discrimination with environmentalism listed as the affronted creed.

According to Tom Nicholson, a 41-year old married man, being Green means he no longer travels by airplane, he buys local produce, has reduced his consumption of meat and he composts his food waste.  But his employer, property company Grainger, didn’t take these beliefs seriously – in particular his belief in climate change – and sacked him.

At a preliminary hearing in March, Judge David Sneath ruled that Mr Nicholson’s convictions amount to a philosophical belief under the Employment Equality (Religion and Belief) Regulations, 2003, and therefore he can claim discrimination.

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The Mathematics of Connectivity and Bushfires: A Note from David Ward

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HUNGARY has produced many outstanding mathematicians and physicists. Perhaps there is a connection with rampant violin playing.

One of these was Paul Erdös who was the twentieth century’s most prolific mathematician, with 1475 papers to his credit. He rivals Leonhard Euler, the Swiss genius of the eighteenth century. There is a worthwhile biography of Erdös called ‘The Man Who Loved Only Numbers’, by Paul Hoffman (1998).

On a recent thread at this blog (Wise Men Excluded from Bushfire Royal Commission), I raised the issue of fuel connectivity, and suggested that it helped to explain the uncontrollable spread of bushfires over large areas of Victoria a few months ago.

The tonnage of available fuel determines the intensity, and convection column strength, and the number of flying embers, but connectivity determines ground spread. Wind is important, but large fires, of course, create their own wind. It seems to me that the application of Occam’s Razor makes climate superfluous to the argument, beyond there being weather dry enough for a fire to burn. Given dry fuel, fierce fires can occur even at mild temperatures. Surely we have all lit a pot-belly stove on a winter’s day.

Although I doubt if he had ever seen a bushfire, or a gumtree, Erdös had useful ideas on connectivity in networks. With a Hungarian colleague, he published papers about ‘giant patches’. These form when random connections are made between a set of random points (Erdös and Renyi 1959, 1960).

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More Low-Carbon Research Needed: A Note from Bjorn Lomborg

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WE are often told that tackling global warming should be the defining task of our age — that we must cut emissions immediately and drastically. But people are not buying the idea that, unless we act, the planet is doomed. Several recent polls have revealed Americans’ growing skepticism. Solving global warming has become their lowest policy priority, according to a new Pew survey.
 
Moreover, strategies to reduce carbon have failed. Meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, politicians from wealthy countries promised to cut emissions by 2000, but did no such thing. In Kyoto in 1997, leaders promised even stricter reductions by 2010, yet emissions have kept increasing unabated. Still, the leaders plan to meet in Copenhagen this December to agree to even more of the same — drastic reductions in emissions that no one will live up to. Another decade will be wasted.
 
Fortunately, there is a better option: to make low-carbon alternatives like solar and wind energy competitive with old carbon sources. This requires much more spending on research and development of low-carbon energy technology. We might have assumed that investment in this research would have increased when the Kyoto Protocol made fossil fuel use more expensive, but it has not.

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