Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

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Tony Windsor Willfully Ignores the Evidence

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THE ability to perceive anomaly – something that deviates from what is considered standard – is important for the progress of science and also good public policy.

Until the recent widespread flooding in Australia, water planning in the Murray Darling Basin was based on the assumption that the region would experience continuing drought because of climate change.  The underlying science was considered the best available because it was endorsed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology and it confidently predicted a major decline in rainfall for decades.

This assumption has since proven wrong.  Indeed during 2010 rainfall was 163 percent of the long term average. 

The latest flooding was predicted by Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle.   Professor Franks, in a series of papers published in peer-reviewed journals since 2003, has confirmed and provided explanation, for what many farmers have known intuitively that the Murray Darling Basin generally exists in one of two states – flood or drought.

While recent flooding, and the rainfall totals for the Murray Darling for 2010, dramatically demonstrate the anomaly between government water policy and reality, Tony Windsor, the independent for New England who holds the balance of power in the federal parliament, remains in denial.  Indeed despite the flooding he claims there is no need to rethink reform within the Murray Darling Basin.

In an article published by The Australian yesterday Mr Windsor went as far as to suggest that the Murray River is still dying.

So the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Australian Greens and now even the Independent member for the rural seat of New England are willfully ignoring evidence that contradicts their beliefs.  This is a bad omen for public policy in Australia.

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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/windsor-rejects-rethink-on-basin-plan/story-fn59niix-1225989031335

Snowy Hydro – Water Management: Part 3, by Max Talbot

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“THE 75 year Snowy Water Licence (issued in 2002) provides flexibility to Snowy Hydro to store and release the Scheme’s water resource for electricity production and derivative trading and sub-optimises the use of the water for irrigation, communities and the environment.

“It also falls short of providing optimum regulation of the combined Snowy Scheme, Murray and Murrumbidgee River storages.

“It needs to be extensively revised and fully integrated with the yet to be developed Murray – Darling Basin Plan so as to optimise the regulation of the combined Snowy and Murray – Darling systems.”   

These are the conclusion of Max Talbot, former Executive Officer at Snowy Hydro, and Operations Engineer Snowy Mountains Council. 

Mr Talbot recently updated a document ‘Snowy Hydro – The Business’ penned in 2008 and has generously given permission for me to publish this document as a four part series.  Following is Part 3 – concerning Water Management.

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Queensland Premier establishes Commission of Inquiry into flood disaster

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Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has launched a statewide independent Commission of Inquiry to forensically examine Queensland’s unprecedented flood disaster.

Ms Bligh said the Commission would be headed by widely respected Queensland Justice Cate Holmes with Deputy Commissioners Jim O’Sullivan, a former Queensland Police Commissioner and Phil Cummins, an international expert on dams.

She said the Commission of Inquiry, approved by Cabinet today and appointed by the Queensland Governor after a special Executive Council meeting, would deliver an interim report in August 2011, and its final report by January 2012.

The Premier said the Inquiry would have the powers of a Royal Commission, would take public submissions from across Queensland and would make recommendations in its interim report for future wet seasons.

“The last three weeks have been truly shocking for all Queenslanders and now is the time to forensically examine the devastating chain of events and the aftermath,” Ms Bligh said.

The Commission will be asked to inquire into and report on:

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Time to Reject AGW – And Bob Brown

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EVER the opportunist, Bob Brown, Leader of the Australian Greens, yesterday blamed the Brisbane floods on the coal industry for causing global warming. 

But there is no correlation between atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and rainfall or flooding, as measured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, anywhere in Australia. 

There is, however, a correlation between patterns in the major atmospheric-oceanic oscillations and flood events. 

Stewart Franks, a hydrologist at the University of Newcastle, has shown that the usefulness of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a predictor of flooding depends on whether or not a more complex phenomenon also measured by sea surface temperatures known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in a positive or negative phase. 

In a series of peer-reviewed papers published in the best international journals since 2003, Professor Franks has shown that when the IPO is negative, as it was from 1946 to 1977, then there is a much greater chance that there will be flooding rains if a La Nina forms. 

The IPO started to go negative in 1999, but an El Nino formed in 2001, and seven years of mostly drought followed – sustained by the El Nino conditions.  

In February 2009, Professor Franks commented at this weblog that the Australian climate showed signs of entering another wet phase and warned that governments should prepare for a return to a 20-40 year period where La Nina dominates.

Just over a year later, in April 2010, the negative IPO now entrenched, a strong La Nina began to form and flooding rains followed.

Indeed the explanation for the recent devastating flooding is not carbon dioxide, but inadequate infrastructure and warning systems in the face of a combination of La Nina conditions during a negative IPO, a monsoon trough and already saturated catchments.

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Better Planning for Extreme Floods Possible: A Note from Stewart Franks
February 27th, 2009
https://jennifermarohasy.com.dev.internet-thinking.com.au/blog/2009/02/better-planning-for-extreme-floods-possible/

On Abandoning the Scientific Method, Continued

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 In his 2005 book entitled ‘A Big Fix: Radical solutions for Australia’s environmental crisis’ Ian Lowe suggests that the global environmental situation is so desperate we abandon the traditional scientific method in favor of sustainability science.

Professor Lowe explains that sustainability science differs fundamentally from most science as we know it: ‘The traditional scientific method is based on sequential phases of inquiry, conceptualising the problem, collecting data, developing theories, then applying the results. … Sustainability science will have to employ new methods, such as semi-quantitative modelling of qualitative data, or inverse approaches that work backwards from undesirable consequences to identify better ways to progress’. 

This is really the ‘Chicken Little Principle’. If I say the sky is falling, then there is no time to go through the normal rigor of the scientific method, because by that time, the sky will have fallen.

Now Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the IPCC reports and key protagonist in the Climategate emails, is suggesting climate scientists abandon the null hypothesis.

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Forget Climate Taxes –Climate always Changes, and Man must Adapt: Viv Forbes

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THE Carbon Sense Coalition today accused Western Governments of massive waste of community savings on frivolous climate “research” and alternative energy toys while neglecting the infrastructure needed to maintain sustainable societies in the face of an unknown climate future.

The Chairman of Carbon Sense, Mr Viv Forbes, said that none of the massive government climate spending has produced anything of long term use to the people paying their bills.

“The US government spends over two thousand million dollars  per year on “climate research” but the recipients were completely unable to forecast the frigid winter they are now suffering. That money would be better spent on snow ploughs and highway improvements.

“Australian governments are spending at least eight hundred million dollars per year on “climate research”, but were unable to forecast the massive floods now affecting much of Australia. That money would have been better spent on water storage and flood-proofing roads, bridges and airports.

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