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Jennifer Marohasy

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Archives for March 2020

Running out of Rice, While Wasting Water

March 29, 2020 By jennifer

Australia was once self-sufficient in rice. We now grow less than 25 percent of domestic rice consumption. The SunRice Group has been importing rice from Vietnam and repackaging it to make-up the shortfall. Since the Corona Virus pandemic, the Vietnamese government has banned the export of rice, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has feigned an unprecedented drought. There is a need to not only prioritise health needs, but also to ensure we can feed ourselves. This could go together with the restoration of the Murray River’s estuary.

Spring rainfall in the Murray Darling Basin, 1900 to 2019.

I have been fortunate to live most of my life through the good times, and in a society so rich and well serviced that we flush our porcelain toilet bowls with water good enough to drink. At the same time, many have complained endlessly about a coming environmental apocalypse, unless all the travel stops, and we allocate ever more water to the environment. Now the travel has stopped, and also the rice growing, but not because of climate change or a shortage of freshwater.

We have a pandemic, and across the world communities have shown that they can do the right thing. Across the world, governments have put saving lives before capitalism and populations have mostly complied. We have been told to stay at home, and we mostly have. In Australia, department store giant Myer will closed from today. Around 10,000 staff will be stood down. Early last week, Qantas announced it was cancelling 90 percent of international flights. A couple of days later the borders were closed to everyone except Australians and Australian residents. My daughter was on the second last Qantas flight from the United States to Sydney, before the entire international Qantas fleet was grounded. She arrived the same day my home state of Queensland began turning back anyone who was not a resident, anyone who didn’t already live here.

She has spent the last few years overseas, most recently working in New York. She has told me that what was most disturbing about her last week there, in South Harlem Manhattan, was the surge in frequency of the sound of ambulance sirens.

New York has quickly become the global epicentre for Corona virus. A virus with its origins apparently in a seafood market in China that also sold wild animals kept alive in cages. Environmentalist Jane Goodall recently said that if anything good has already come from this virus, it is the closing down of that cruel trade. The market was in Wuhan which is a city on the Yangtzee River, where just a few years ago the Baiji went extinct. The Baiji was a grey dolphin endemic to the Yangtze River with tiny eyes and a long narrow beak. The last confirmed sighting was in September 2004.

The Baiji, Lipotes vexillifer, may be the first species of cetacean (whale, dolphin and porpoise) to go extinct in modern times. The extinction will have taken place at a time of unprecedented interest and concern for their large relative the Minke whale. It is perhaps a sad reflection of humanity’s sometimes inability to prioritise effectively on the basis of need, that so many resources and so much publicity has been devoted to ‘saving’ these whales whose populations are relatively abundant, while their endangered cousin was left to die out. In the same way we have been wasting water in the Murray Darling Basin on propping-up a crippled estuary when we could have been growing rice while restoring that estuary by bringing back the sea tides.

NO RICE IN THE SUPERMARKETS

Friday I was food shopping for my daughter now in a mandatory 14-day period of quarantine. I was surprised that there were no bags of standard rice on the shelves in my local Woolworths supermarket. Yesterday I went to Aldi specifically to buy some brown rice, but the line was so long – the line of people waiting just to enter that shop – that I will instead take her rice from my own pantry. Hopefully, the hoarding of food, as the Prime Minister, has described it, will stop. But is anyone in government a reliable source of information when it comes to claims there is enough rice to go around?

I phoned my friend Debbie Buller, who is a rice farmer on the Murrumbidgee River.
“There is no rice here, either,” she said. “Normally at this time of year we would be harvesting. But we have not been given a timely or adequate water allocation to grow rice for some years now.”

There have been claims that the recent drought was ‘unprecedented’, when in reality it was a very wet spring just a few years ago in 2016, in the Murray Darling Basin. Australia-wide the incident of drought has been decreasing since the 1970s and rainfall has generally been increasing. Yet since the summer of 2016-2017, rice growers have been denied a timely water allocation. The reservoirs and the rivers had enough water, but the government institutions responsible for water allocation have given Debbie very little. The mood has been against farming, and particularly against farming rice.

NO WATER FOR RICE GROWING

The Basin Plan has prioritised water for South Australia, and in particular the lower lakes that have been designated a wetland of international importance, even though they are only freshwater by artificial means since construction of the 7.6 kms of sea dyke back in the 1930s that stopped the tide.

The sea dykes and barrages prevent inflows from the Southern Ocean, they have stopped the tides making Lake Alexandrina totally dependent on upstream reservoirs even during periods of drought.

The taxpayer-funded Basin Plan is meant to be about restoring the environment, but it ignores the first thing that should be considered when fixing a river system — that is the need to restore the estuary to its natural dynamic state, as I explained to a Senate Committee in December 2015.

The bottom-line is that successive governments have denied upstream irrigators water in an attempt to keep forcing what was once the Murray River’s estuary to remain as an artificial freshwater lake. The water from upstream storages is sent to South Australia and much of it lost to evaporation, including in transmission. The Lower Lakes, that were once a functioning estuary but now barraged in as entirely freshwater, lose in excess of 800,000 megalitres of fresh water each year in evaporation, water that could be used to grow rice and other important staple food crops.

If my good friend Debbie had just 2,000 megalitres (0.25%) of that water that is evaporated, she could grow 2.16 million kilos of rice on just 174 hectares (430 acres). This would go some way to returning us to self-sufficiency. Once upon a time, over the ten years to 2004, Australian rice farmers grew 1 million tonnes of rice in an average year; we were self-sufficient. In Australia we could easily grow enough rice to feed about 20 million people a meal of rice every day of the year. Instead, again this last summer there has been very little rice planted, and not nearly enough available in the Murrumbidgee or Murray River irrigation areas to restock the supermarket shelves.

Another rice grower, my friend John Lolicato back in March 2011 when I visited him at Wakool, on an anabranch of the Murray River.

NO WATER, NO RICE, MILL CLOSED

A consequence was the virtual closure of the Deniliquin rice mill just last year, and the loss of 250 jobs.

To overcome the declining reliability of Australian grown rice because of changing government policy and public sentiment, the SunRice Group decided to instead invest in a mill where there was a reliable supply of rice.

They bought a rice mill in Vietnam with the intention of shipping the Vietnamese rice to Deniliquin for packing and distribution around Australia. Except, we live in unprecedented times, and the Vietnamese government has just banned the export of rice. So, the SunRice Group can no longer bring the Vietnamese rice back to Australia. There is not enough rice right now in Australia to restock the supermarket shelves, and none has been planted.

NEED FOR POLICY CHANGE, REMOVE THE SEA DYKES

Debbie and so many other rice growers would like to grow rice this next summer. But they have no idea whether they will be allocated any water. This situation needs to change. There is already more than enough water in the reservoirs for farming and the environment, if only the Murray River’s estuary were restored. The sea dykes need to be removed and the estuary restored. Then the 800,000 megalitres of water that is evaporated each year could be supplemented with saltwater, depending on the tides.

Once upon a time each spring, after good rains and snow melt, the Murray would tumble down from the Mountains spread over the vast Riverina and wind its way through the limestone canyons of the Riverland before flooding into Lake Alexandrina. By New Year, the river exhausted, and a breeze picking up from the southwest, the Southern Ocean would pour in through the Mouth of the river, and with the seawater came vast schools of Mulloway fish.

The fish came each autumn to spawn. The sea would work its way up across the lake and sometimes into the river proper. And so, the lakes would be sometimes fresh and sometimes salty, but always full of water and each autumn full of Mulloway.

Then the massive steel and concrete barrages were built across the Goolwa channel, that was after the dykes were already built sealing the Mundoo, Boundary Creek, Ewe Island channels and also the Tauwichere fishing area. In the autumn of 1940, the year the Goolwa barrages were completed and sealed, the Mulloway entered the Mouth, passed along the Goolwa channel and died in their hundreds of millions entrapped between the barrier and the falling tide.

The sea dykes killed the Mulloway fishery and crippled the estuary.

In 1939, the annual mulloway catch by commercial fishermen in the Murray River’s estuary was 595 tonnes. There is no longer an estuary; the Mulloway are stopped by the sea dykes. The catch in the adjacent Coorong has been no more than 30 tonnes in recent years.

The technical literature explains the sea dykes and Goolwa barrage reduced the size of the estuary by 89 per cent, and flows to the Murray mouth by 75 per cent. They stopped the tides. We are left with a freshwater lake full of carp instead of an estuary with Mulloway, crabs, waders and the biodiversity that comes when there is natural mixing of fresh and salt waters.

CONSEQUENCES OF HOLE DIGGING AND INFILLING

Some of us have been warning that as a civilization, it is best we not squander our wealth because bad things do happen. They are happening now. ‘Mr FOIA’, the sceptic and the good hacker who brought us Climategate, he warned back in 2009 that:

“[The] Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn’s future life. It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it.”

In the same email he described the misguided obsession with human-caused catastrophic global warming as “a massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavour”. The obsession has extended beyond climate change to so many aspects of natural resource management. It is the case that during the 1980 there were salinity issues in the Murray Darling Basin, caused in large part by rice farming. But the problems were solved through clever drainage management thirty years ago.

It is difficult to understand why this good news about environmental restoration is so rarely reported. Instead the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) continues to vilify those who defy agreed narratives when it comes to Australia’s longest river system, the Murray. Both sides of politics court the South Australian vote, and South Australians always want more freshwater including for the golf courses, wineries and the Goolwa sailing club that is just upstream of the barrage.

The Goolwa barrage that was sealed in early 1940, there are no longer any Mulloway fish in the Lower Lakes.

TIME TO SORT PRIORITIES

Now is the time to be honest to the evidence, to stop the waste, stop the politics and assure Debbie Buller some water for this summer, so she can grow rice for the thousands of people queuing for hours across Australia, trying to access staple food.

Denying Australian rice-growers water will not make it rain during drought, nor will it bring back the Yangtzee River dolphin or stop the spread of Corona virus. Restoring the Murray River’s estuary could though bring back the Mulloway fish. We are seeing for example in the many reports already of dolphins returning to Venice canals and clear skies over long-polluted cities, how resilient nature can be when we get out of the way.

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global pandemic, and the world community has responded closing whole industries including the travel industry. This health emergency could develop into a food emergency if we continue to hoard food, and if government policies continue to deny farmers access to water.

The SunRice Group have commenced discussions with the Australian government around the potential for an allocation of water to be made available to Australian rice growers who are upstream, this must be ahead of the planting window later in 2020 to ensure continued supply of Australian-grown rice for domestic consumption. Now is the time for sanity, for water to be allocated for farming so Australia can once again be self-sufficient in rice. But this is not enough, now is also the time to restore the once mighty Murray River its estuary.

The Chinese have banned the trade in exotic wildlife at that market in Wuhan. Now the Australian government can dismantle the 7.6 kilometres of sea dyke that deny the wild Mulloway their estuary. That would be a good start in getting out of the way, bringing back the sea tide, and filling our supermarket shelves with rice.

Debbie Buller standing neck-deep in a seed oat crop. It was planted directly after harvesting a rice crop, with the residual moisture producing high quality seed for oat farmers.

****
The feature photograph at the very top of this post is of Debbie Buller on her tractor in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA). This next spring she would so like to be planting rice.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Murray River

Warming Marble Bar

March 1, 2020 By jennifer

MY friend Craig Kelly – the Federal member for Hughes – attempted to raise the issue of the world’s longest heat wave record in the Australian parliament last Wednesday. He was shut down by Tony Burke, the manager of opposition business.

Specifically, Mr Kelly was attempting to draw attention to how the historical observations have been changed, and how the values as originally recorded at Marble Bar between 31 October 1923 and 7 April 1924 have been adjusted down. This was first brought to our attention by Chris Gilham, and reposted by Joanne Nova.

When the Australian Bureau of Meteorology cools the past – as it does with most of the 112 temperature series used to construct the official statistics – current temperatures appear hotter. The remodelling of Marble Bar has, to quote Mr Kelly, also robbed Australia of the world’s longest heatwave record. This now goes to Death Valley in California.

The Bureau has made many more changes to the Marble Bar record, than just dropping down the temperatures back in 1923 and 1924. With the first iteration of ACORN-SAT back in 2011, maximum temperatures as recorded at Marble Bar from 1967 back to 1910 were cooled on average by -0.41 °C, and from 1944 back to 1910 by an additional -0.52°C.

The Bureau claimed these changes were necessary because the weather station at Marble Bar has been moved, the moves created discontinuities in the temperature series, and these discontinuities can only be ‘corrected’ with reference to neighbouring sites.

In fact, the weather station at Marble Bar has always been just to the southeast of the town centre, on vacant public land on the edge of the Great Sandy Desert, which covers an area of about 284,993 km². There is no documentation for any move in 1944. In 1967 the weather station was apparently moved some metres. The distance is recorded as ‘small’ in the relevant catalogue.

The Bureau nevertheless identified weather stations at Mundiwindi (about 300 kms south), Wiluna (about 700 km south) and Roebourne (about 300 km east) as neighbouring stations suitable for comparison, specifically for fixing the perceived ‘discontinuity’ in 1944 created by the apparent station move.

The annual average maximum temperatures from the comparison sites move up and down in unison with the Marble Bar data including for the period from 1930 to 1940, as shown in Figure 1. This suggests that there is nothing wrong with the historical temperature observations for Marble Bar. And that feeding these stations together into the percentile matching algorithm would result in only minimal changes.

Figure 1. Maximum Temperatures Recorded at Marble Bar and Comparison Stations

The Bureau has listed Mundiwindi, Roebourne and Wiluna as comparison stations for Marble Bar.

Yet, the cumulative changes made to the original observations from Marble Bar in the creation of the new ACORN-SAT series (using the ‘nearby’ stations) make the new ACORN-SAT series less like the data from the nearby comparison stations.

The consequence of the changes to the maximum temperature series is that what was a cooling trend for Marble Bar of -0.6 °C per century from 1910 to 2005 in the original historical observations, becomes a warming trend of +0.396 °C per century from 1910 to 1918 in ACORN-SAT version 1, as shown in Figure 2. When ACORN-SAT version 1 was updated late 2018 to ACORN-SAT version 2, an even more significant +0.7 °C warming trend was generated for Marble Bar. ACORN-SAT version 2 is now the official temperature data base for Australia.

Figure 2. Historical Observations (blue) and Remodelled (red and orange)

The historical observations for Marble Bar (the raw data) from 1910 to 2005 indicate a cooling trend, this has been changed to a warming trend of 0.7 degrees Celsius per century in ACORN-SAT Version 2.

CHANGES TO INDIVIDUAL DAYS VERSUS CUMULATIVE

While the cumulative consequence of all the changes is a warming trend +0.7 °C Celsius per century in ACORN-SAT version 2, the changes are actually made to the daily values, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Temperatures for Six Days in November 1923

The daily values as recorded in the different databases for Marble Bar.

So while the actual temperature recorded at Marble Bar on 18th November 1923 was 44.7 °C, this has been changed to 43.7 in ACORN-SAT version 2. This is a difference of one whole degree, as shown in Table 1.

The difference is only 0.2 degrees on 21st November. This lack of consistency in the fiddling is because the Bureau applies what is called a percentile matching algorithm to generate the new temperature series. To quote from the relevant peer-reviewed paper as published by the Royal Meterological Society (International Journal of Climatology, Volume 33):

For the purposes of merging station series and correcting inhomogeneities, the data set has been developed using a technique, the percentile-matching (PM) algorithm, which applies differing adjustments to daily data depending on their position in the frequency distribution. This method is intended to produce data sets that are homogeneous for higher-order statistical properties, such as variance and the frequency of extremes, as well as for mean values. The PM algorithm is evaluated and found to have clear advantages over adjustments based on monthly means, particularly in the homogenization of temperature extremes.

TWO TEMPERATURE DATA BASES

Not many people are aware that the Bureau actually holds two very different temperature databases. Mostly, it uses what is called ACORN-SAT version 2 (Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature) for generating trends and announcing record hot years. This database also contains all the values that are sent to the United Nation’s International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).

The other database includes the historical values more or less as originally recorded. This is called the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM), also known as the Climate Data Online (CDO). This database has a reasonable amount of integrity and generally reflects values actually recorded across Australia. There are nevertheless some issues with ADAM. The mix of stations is changing, with stations that have recorded colder temperatures closed down. For example, Charlotte Pass on the slopes of Mount Kosciuszko holds the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded on mainland Australia at −23 °C on 19 June 1994. Inexplicably, this station was closed down in March 2015. Also of concern is that there was a period when lower limits were set on how cold temperatures could be recorded, for example the limit that was set at Goulburn of −10 °C between the years 2007 and 2017 and at Thredbo between 2002 and 2017.

Also, some ‘inconvenient’ early hot records have been deleted, for example 51.7 °C recorded at Bourke in western New South Wales on 3 January 1909. This record needs to be reinstated as it is the hottest day ever recorded in Australia using standard equipment, properly calibrated and in a Stevenson Screen. The Bureau’s only excuse for deleting it is that it was recorded on a Sunday, and the weather observer was not meant to come in on that day.

The existence of these two date bases is not denied by the Bureau, but interestingly key Australian Broadcasting Corporation journalists cannot bring themselves to acknowledge this fact. This is perhaps because of all the complications it raises.

LET US GET IT CHANGED BACK

The Bureau has a long history of making nonsense changes to important historical temperature data series. I’ve previously documented the situation at Rutherglen (Victoria), Bourke (New South Wales), Darwin (Northern Territory) and Amberley (Queensland).

I’ve been trying to get something done about this since at least 2014. Ministers within the current cabinet who are across this issue include Greg Hunt and Josh Frydenberg. So far, they have refused to do anything about it, because they apparently do not want the Australian public to lose confidence in the Bureau.

I suggest we begin a campaign, in the first instance to have the correct temperatures for Marble Bar for the period of the heatwave, which was from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, included in the official temperature record. This will require the Bureau to notify the relevant IPCC working group that is currently incorporating the incorrect values into their Sixth Assessment report, which is being used for the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement.

Filed Under: Information Tagged With: Temperatures

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Jennifer Marohasy Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation. Read more

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To get in touch with Jennifer call 0418873222 or international call +61418873222.

Email: jennifermarohasy at gmail.com

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