ACCORDING to those who define popular culture, prominent sceptics like myself deny the reality of climate change. It’s a convenient argument for the activist, and its repeated in a survey I just received today from academic Raymond Orr, University of Melbourne. According to the preamble to the survey, prominent sceptics like myself “are doubtful that climate change is occurring”. The first question then includes the following statements:
Q1 How would you describe your climate change beliefs:
a. I don’t believe climate change is occurring
c. I don’t believe we can know climate change is occurring
d. I believe in climate change but don’t believe it is caused by humans
e. I believe in climate change but don’t believe government should address climate change
f. I believe in climate change but don’t think there is anything we can do about it
g. Other
***
If the survey is intended to characterize the position of prominent sceptics like myself, then a more useful set of first statements might include:
Q1 How would you describe your climate change beliefs:
a. I don’t believe climate change is occurring
b. I believe climate change is occurring, and is predominantly natural in origin
c. I believe climate change is occurring, and is predominantly anthropogenic in origin
***
Following is the text of the email from Dr Orr follows, and also my reply:
Dear Ms. Marohasy,
My name is Raymond Orr and my colleague Anne Kallies had contacted you at the end of last year regarding the possibility of your participating in a short study on climate change attitudes. We had intended to conduct the survey in person but have moved to an online format. If you are still willing, your participating would be very much appreciated and would only take between 10-15 minutes. Your participation is kept entirely confidential.
The project is comparative research project on climate change attitudes conducted with my colleague Professor Robyn Eckersley from the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne. The purpose of the study is to identify and compare how much variability exists in the attitudes of prominent people in Australia and the United States who publicly identify as climate sceptics. A more detailed explanation of the project is provided in the attached Plain Language Statement.
I am writing to seek your permission to participate in the study because you are a prominent person in Australia who has publicly questioned the science of climate change or the need for action on climate change.
Participation is entirely voluntary and you will be free to withdraw at any stage. Your anonymity will be completely protected and you will be entitled to receive, upon request, any published research or conference papers resulting from the study. The study has been approved by the University of Melbourne’s Human Research Ethics Committee.
Participation in the study will require you to sort a series of statements according to how much you agree with them (technically known as a Q-sort) and answering short follow up questions. The survey is online and can be found by clicking on or pasting this link [redacted].
If you have any questions about the project then please do not hesitate to contact Dr Raymond Orr [redacted]. Thank you in advance for your participation.
Sincerely,
Raymond Orr, PhD, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne
My reply…
Hi Raymond
Thank you for your email. I had been prepared to participate in your survey, but in the first question you show a total ignorance of what is disputed in the science, and the position of prominent sceptics.
There is no denial that climate change is part and parcel of life on earth. It is always occurring. Indeed, we are about 10,000 years into the Holocene warm period, and about 150 years out of a mini-ice age. I know of no prominent sceptic in Australia or America who denies such realities. Indeed most take a great interest in the history of climate change both in geological time, and from the tree rings, and more recent instrumental record.
Indeed, can you send me the name/details of any one prominent sceptic in Australia or the US who denies that the climate changes and/or shows no interest in measurement of the same?
At issue is the extent of the human contribution to the observable late 20thy Century warming in places like Australia, and whether we have catastrophic global warming. My position, like that of most sceptics, is that the recent warming in Australia unremarkable. Furthermore, we are more likely to attribute it to nature causes as detailed in the attached scientific publication by Nicola Scafetta from the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.
The abstract reads: “We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.251C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon’s orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.”
Yet the pre-amble/background to the survey, that includes the statement that skeptics “are doubtful that climate change is occurring”, suggests prominent sceptics like myself and Nicola Scafetta deny such a reality.
The first question in the questionaire then reiterates this nonsense.
It is disappointing that such a prominent university could be so ignorance of the real position of those it purports to characterize.
Kind regards
Jennifer Marohasy, PhD
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.