When measurements don’t matter… a YouTube by Calem Smith explaining how the Bureau of Meteorology grossly misrepresented the strength of Tropical Cyclone Marcia.
Archives for February 24, 2015
Missing Observational Data for Middle Percy Island
IT is valid for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to estimate the intensity of a cyclone using computer models when it is far out to sea. But once that same cyclone passes over a weather recording station the modelling data must be updated with real world observational data.
In the case of Marcia even after this cyclone passed over Middle Percy Island recording a minimum central pressure of only 972 hPa, maximum wind gust of 208 km/h and maximum wind speed of 156 km/h, the Bureau continued to report only on the basis of output from a computer model. The cyclone was clearly a category 3 system, yet the Bureau called it as a 5.
The Bureau has since removed the observational data that was once available on their website, I printed it off at the time and had it digitized this morning. That information is here:
It would be travesty if Marcia was recorded as a category 5 cyclone at landfall based on output from a dysfunctional computer model, rather than as a category 3 as clearly indicated by the observational data.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.