I began my most recent newsletter to those subscribed at ‘MythandtheMurray.org’ with reference to the Michael Crichton quote: ‘If you don’t know history, then you don’t know anything. You are a leaf that doesn’t know it is part of a tree.”
I continued by providing a link to a recent blog post where I explain how British Explorer Matthew Flinders missed the Murray River’s mouth when he was mapping the southern Australian coastline in 1802, probably because the Murray’s mouth had closed over.
In response I received an email from Kevin Long explaining that the last mega-drought in the Murray-Darling spanned the period 1790 to 1820.
Kevin Long, a long-range weather forecaster based in Bendigo, Victoria, went on to explain that he believes we are at the beginning of another mega-drought in the Basin because of the solar minimum and phase of the current lunar cycle.
While it is fashionable for many climate scientists, and also social and political commentators, to scoff at the idea that the moon could influence climate, it is not disputed by those with an understanding of conventional physics that the moon’s gravitational field along with the day/night cycle of the spinning earth creates atmospheric tides that modulate high-altitude winds that have a major influence on weather.
The complete email from Kevin Long follows.
While providing a summary of the current extra-terrestrial situation as it affects rainfall in the Murray-Darling, Kevin Long continued with my leaf-tree analogy. In particular suggesting that he is a leaf attached to the big tree of knowledge.
I agree that there exists a vast amount of information concerning astronomy and historical climate patterns. Kevin Long has an intimate knowledge of these patterns as they affect rainfall in the Murray Darling Basin.
Prior to the establishment of the current Australia Bureau of Meteorology in 1909, Australian meteorologist had a keen knowledge of astronomy and considered solar, lunar and planetary cycles in their weather forecasting. I’m told that there was some interest in what was termed ‘solar terrestrial physics’ at the Bureau until the early 1950s. Now this tree of knowledge is ignored.
I’m told modern meteorologists are instead trained in how to interpret the output from general circulation models (GCMs).
It could be that as meteorologists have moved away from a deep knowledge of astronomy, and the influence of the sun, moon and planets on climate cycles, their skill at medium and long-range rainfall forecasting has greatly deteriorated.
Email from Kevin Long…
Hi Jennifer
The historical records you included about Matthew Finders indicate the Murray mouth was closed in 1802. This all fits with the weather cycle as I understand it to be at the time.
That was the middle of the last mega-drought, brought on by the Dalton minimum cycle 1790 to 1820 (three very low and long sun spot cycles only averaging about 35 sun spot number).
The solar minimum cycle repeats every two hundred years or thereabouts.
Just a little more evidence that indicates this leaf is still attached to the big tree of knowledge.
The Murray Darling Basin is subject to long periods of well below average rainfall, this occurs when the northeast lunar air tide cycle is not peaking during the monsoon season.
It takes 9 years for the northeast lunar air tide cycle to progress backwards through the summer months, after which the dryer transition phase takes the next 9 to 10 years to progress back through the summer months, it is during this time that a long drought is most likely to develop. (This year the peak of the northeast air tide is occurring in late November so we are at the start of that long dry period.)
The southern air tide phase that follows during the next 9 year (2025 to 2034) has only a small influence on the top half of the MDB’s rainfall, so if you don’t have above average solar activity the northern half of Australia is likely to remain in a low rainfall sequence for most of the next 28 years of the 37.2-year air tide cycle. It is only when a strong La Nina cycle happens to form, that a few cyclones are likely to be forced inland providing some temporary relief during this long dry period.
Global sea ice is now above the average of the last 35 years and the Antarctic ice is presently about 20% above average for this time of the year. This indicates a dry winter/spring.
The SOI has plunged from +14 to –13 in just over a month. Even the Bureau of Meteorology is now warning of El Nino in the second half of the year. This little leaf blowing in the wind saw it coming months ago.
Cold seas are already dominating the east coast of Australia, and a big slug of cold sea is moving across under Australia, this is very likely to kill the autumn/winter rainfall that the weakening southern air tide is trying to produce. (The air tides get a little weaker every year until 2020 which is the driest part of this 18.6 year lunar declination cycle, otherwise known as the flood and drought cycle.)
Once June has passed there is very little chance of any river filling rains until the next La Nina gets organized, which is not due until 2017. That one is normally the weakest one in the 18.6-year cycle.
If the climate cycle runs true to form you will be able to walk across the Murray mouth, later this decade without getting your feet wet once again. And you will be able to see large 200 year-old dead tree stumps in many of Australia’s deepest dry holes.
Regards Kevin Long
http://www.thelongview.com.au
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The map shows the position of the sun and the moon relative to the earth at about the time I made this blog post. The day and night world map can be accessed by clicking here… http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.