THERE are at least 3 practical ways in which medium-term rainfall forecasts for Queensland can be improved:
1. Through the use of sophisticated statistical modelling techniques, in particular artificial neural networks to mine historical data for recurrent patterns,
2. The incorporation of relevant climate indices, including the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, and also
3. The presentation of forecasts as charts showing total forecast rainfall, rather than as coloured maps with assigned probabilities.
And there is a fourth suggestion, also detailed in the recent paper by myself and John Abbot that has just been made available for free download by Elsevier, publishers of the journal Atmospheric Research.
The link is here: http://elsarticle.com/1ej97n3
Free access will only be available until March 26, 2014. Enjoy!
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.