JUSTIFICATION for Australia’s carbon-pricing scheme assumes there will be a global carbon pricing system with our ETS a part of it. This assumption is probably wrong. It is unlikely a global carbon pricing system will be implemented, let alone sustained for the decades or even centuries that would be required. 
Without a global carbon-pricing system, national or regional carbon-pricing schemes would be prohibitively expensive if they are to achieve the projected benefits and, therefore, would not be sustainable. The high cost means that a scheme like the one Australia has legislated is not viable, and even regional carbon pricing schemes like the European ETS will not last. The ‘ball-park’ analysis presented here suggests Australia’s ETS would cost $12 for every $1 of projected benefit, to 2050.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD has worked in industry and government. She is currently researching a novel technique for long-range weather forecasting funded by the B. Macfie Family Foundation.