Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Archives for April 2012

NASA Rebuked for Promoting AGW

By

Many of my colleagues are saying there are lots of signs about that its already the beginning of the end of an era, in particular that it will soon no longer be popular to believe in anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Breaking news today is the release of a letter signed by 50 former NASA employees asking the organisation desists from making embarrassing comments promoting AGW…

March 28, 2012

The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.
NASA Administrator
NASA Headquarters
Washington, D.C. 20546-0001

Dear Charlie,

We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.
[Read more…] about NASA Rebuked for Promoting AGW

How Many Polar Bears in Nunavut?

By

FOLLOWING aerial surveys to estimate polar bear numbers, it was recently reported in The Globe and Mail [1] that polar bear population numbers are higher than originally thought:

“The number of bears along the western shore of Hudson Bay, believed to be among the most threatened bear subpopulations, stands at 1,013 and could be even higher, according to the results of an aerial survey released Wednesday by the Government of Nunavut. That’s 66 per cent higher than estimates by other researchers who forecasted the numbers would fall to as low as 610 because of warming temperatures that melt ice faster and ruin bears’ ability to hunt. The Hudson Bay region, which straddles Nunavut and Manitoba, is critical because it’s considered a bellwether for how polar bears are doing elsewhere in the Arctic.”

Ever since that April 3, 2006, cover of Time Magazine many people have been very worried about polar bears.

The Globe and Mail report is apparently quoting Drikus Gissing, Nunavut’s director of wildlife management. But I can’t find this number of 1,013 in the actual report on the survey. [2] And what does it mean if there are 1,013 bears?

According to Anthony Watts [3]:

“What I found most interesting is the clear message that polar bears are thriving in an environment where sea ice (NSIDC includes Hudson Bay as sea ice) seasonally disappears entirely.”

But, again, I can’t find any evidence in the report that polar bears are thriving?

Across the entire region surveyed, polar bear numbers appear to have increased slightly from the 2,200 in the early 1990s to 2,580 in 2009/10.

It is generally assumed, by those who fear anthropogenic global warming, that polar bear numbers are declining globally. But many of us skeptical of this popular consensus have been quick to quote an assumed increase in polar bear numbers over recent decades from a low of about 5,000 in the 1960s to recent estimates of about 22,000.

But how reliable are these figures?

I’ve tracked down a copy of the ‘Proceedings of the First International Scientific Meeting on Polar Bears’ held in Fairbanks Alaska, 6-10 September 1965. It doesn’t actually state how many polar bears there were back then. The Canadian Wildlife Service Brief includes comment that:

“Scott and others (1959) concluded that about 2,000 to 2,500 polar bears existed near the Alaskan coast. By extrapolation they arrived at a total polar bear population of 17,000 to 19,000 animals. Uspensky (1961) estimated the world polar bear population at 5,000 to 8,000 animals. Harington (1964) has given an estimate of 6,000 to 7,000 polar bears for the Canadian Arctic and believes the world polar bear population is well over 10,000. Approximately 18 percent of the total Canadian Arctic population is cubs (0-2 years old).”

There is no reference list with this brief.

In summary we may live in The Information Age, but it’s sure hard to find meaningful information on population numbers for the iconic polar bear.  I’m not sure we have any real idea how polar bear population numbers are trending along the western shore of Hudson Bay, Nunavut, Canada or globally.

******
Links

1. Healthy polar bear count confounds doomsayers. Paul Waldie. April 4, 2012 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/

2. Foxe Basin Polar Bear Aerial Survey
http://env.gov.nu.ca/sites/default/files/foxe_basin_polar_bears_2012.pdf

3. Nunavut Government Study: “the [polar] bear population is not in crisis as people believed,”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/05/nunavut-government-study-the-polar-bear-population-is-not-in-crisis-as-people-believed/#more-60777

No Global Warming For 15 Years: David Whitehouse

By

NEW UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not warmed in the past 15 years.

Analysis by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years – a timescale that challenges current models of global warming.

The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the HadCRUT4 data is that between 1997 – 2011 it has remained constant, with a global temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.)

The important question is whether 15 years is a sufficient length of time from which to draw climatic conclusions that are usually considered over 30 years, as well as its implications for climate projections.

[Read more…] about No Global Warming For 15 Years: David Whitehouse

Adelaide Advertiser: Yet to Correct Errors of Fact

By

Dear Jen

The Adelaide Advertiser has not published your letter to the editor in response to the very crazy claims it published on Saturday from Minister Paul Caica. It published errors of fact and has not corrected them.[1]

The news today in Adelaide is the new Goyder Institute Report which can be downloaded here:

http://www.goyderinstitute.org/uploads/Expert%20Panel%20Final_020412.pdf

This report has been written by some of our most popular scientists including: Aldridge KT, Jolly ID, Nicol J, Oliver RL, Paton DC and Walker KF. This is the same Dr Walker who told the ABC TV Media Watch team that Lake Alexandrina has always been a freshwater lake.

I know this report is going to be demanding more freshwater for South Australia and more freshwater for the Lower Lakes. It will be very popular in Adelaide.

We lost the Grand Prix to Victoria. Now we want their water.

No one wants to hear your sensible practical solution of restoring the Murray River’s estuary. In South Australia we just want to complain and we want more water and the Adelaide Advertiser wants to sell more newspapers.

Charlotte Ramotswe.
[Read more…] about Adelaide Advertiser: Yet to Correct Errors of Fact

New Daintree Rainforest Website: Neil Hewett

By

HAVE  you had a chance to check out the spectacular new Daintree Rainforest website?  Magnificent beauty and extraordinary biodiversity presented through a gallery of images in full-screen format.   The complexities of the oldest surviving rainforest in the world continue to challenge humanity as it strives to comprehend the continuity of growth, the intricate relationships and the incredible diversity established over 160 million years.  The image gallery is partitioned into aerial, fauna, flora, forest, insect and spider lists, for your convenience…

The relictual Gondwanan portion of the world-famous Daintree Rainforest, exists exclusively within the central three valleys off the eastern flank of Thornton Peak, with the Cooper Valley at its centrepiece. Here the highest biodiversity and concentration of ancient, rare, primitive and endemic species, impress visitors with exceptional richness, amid magnificent fan palm galleries and rainforest giants…

Daintree Rainforest demonstrates that cost effective conservation and carbon neutral operation on the land, can be fully-funded by sustainable eco-tourism at no cost to the public purse.

Neil Hewett.